When will Video Card prices come down lower?

pgaster

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I don't think card prices will ever come down again. It seems this will be the new normal or just get worse.
I just saw some new vehicle "market price adjustments" while watching a youtube video about the stock market and stuff:
Bronco adjustment - a bit more than $70K. Note this is what they added, not the total price. Total price is $135K or so.
Mercedes G-Wagon - a bit over $110,000 added. Total price is around $276k.

Car window sticker pics start at around 50 seconds into the video
 

michalrz

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Personally, I'd like to see something that probably won't occur.
Specifically, some pretty amazing stuff is being developed. From perovskite cells to graphene, exotic supercapacitors, nuclear reactors that fit on an 18-wheeler.
I like that joke about graphene being able to do everything except getting out of the lab.
It seems adoption of new technology is stifled by an unwillingness to shell out massive amounts of money to retool everything. New tech, harder to produce, expensive, unattractive to accountants.
We're running out of nanometers, too. Transistors smaller than virus particles running legacy x86 code.
 
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Zarathustra[H]

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I don't believe those numbers. Used car prices are up 26% in the past year. That's the real inflation number, and it's only going to get worse.
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/

View attachment 405369

The numbers are accurate, but they are an average. There are some things that have gone up A LOT, and there are others that are mostly unaffected. It all averages out. Focusing on the most spectacular ones alone (cars, computer chips) is of course going to make inflation seem worse than it is.

And I feel pretty certain it will come back down quite a bit but the question is when and how much.

Consumer prices going up is based on a combination of things. People not traveling or going out to eat during the pandemic spent their money on "stuff" instead, driving demand sky high across many/most "stuff" sectors, at the same time as labor shortages and pandemic supply chain issues conspire to reduce supply. Whenever there is reduced supply, increased demand or both, prices go up.

The record level of imports has ships anchored off shore just waiting for weeks in some cases as the docks have insufficient capacity to receive them. This is also exacerbated by labor shortages.

Some industries have special causes that further exacerbate things (like the limited chip fab capacity, and cars unable to get chips.)

This state is - however - not permanent.

Some things will be a little sticky. For instance, it is difficult to cut someone's pay after you offered them a better salary to recruit them during the labor shortage, so some of the price increases will stick around, but once supply improves, and people get back to spending more of their money on vacations and dining out again, things will drop down.

When it all settles an annual average year over year inflation of 4-5% is not unlikely, but the question will be when that will happen. Originally experts had thought that would be towards the end of 2021, but that seems highly unrealistic at this point. The pandemic just refuses to end. We will see when it happens.

Also, remember, inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially when it is accompanied by shortages in labor.

Remember that we live in a consumer credit driven economy. Inflation will continue to reduce the value of outstanding debt, at the same time as peoples incomes will keep up or increase due to the labor shortage. Consumers might really come out on top from this. I - for one - wouldn't mind some inflation to help me with my mortgage :p
 
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travm

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The numbers are accurate, but they are an average. There are some things that have gone up A LOT, and there are others that are mostly unaffected. It all averages out. Focusing on the most spectacular ones alone (cars, computer chips) is of course going to make inflation seem worse than it is.

And I feel pretty certain it will come back down quite a bit but the question is when and how much.

Consumer prices going up is based on a combination of things. People not traveling or going out to eat during the pandemic spent their money on "stuff" instead, driving demand sky high across many/most "stuff" sectors, at the same time as labor shortages and pandemic supply chain issues conspire to reduce supply. Whenever there is reduced supply, increased demand or both, prices go up.

The record level of imports has ships anchored off shore just waiting for weeks in some cases as the docks have insufficient capacity to receive them. This is also exacerbated by labor shortages.

Some industries have special causes that further exacerbate things (like the limited chip fab capacity, and cars unable to get chips.)

This state is - however - not permanent.

Some things will be a little sticky. For instance, it is difficult to cut someone's pay after you offered them a better salary to recruit them during the labor shortage, so some of the price increases will stick around, but once supply improves, and people get back to spending more of their money on vacations and dining out again, things will drop down.

When it all settles an annual average year over year inflation of 4-5% is not unlikely, but the question will be when that will happen. Originally experts had thought that would be towards the end of 2021, but that seems highly unrealistic at this point. The pandemic just refuses to end. We will see when it happens.

Also, remember, inflation isn't necessarily a bad thing, especially when it is accompanied by shortages in labor.

Remember that we live in a consumer credit driven economy. Inflation will continue to reduce the value of outstanding debt, at the same time as peoples incomes will keep up or increase due to the labor shortage. Consumers might really come out on top from this. I - for one - wouldn't mind some inflation to help me with my mortgage :p
Break this down to simpler terms. Higher home values = higher taxes. Income has to increase with inflation (not guaranteed) for this to help with anything. Just because relative to the cost of your house your mortgage debt had decreased, it's mental gymnastics. You still owe the exact same amount of money, and if you're income hasn't increased in parallel with inflation, you are considerably worse off. Sure you could sell your home and recoup some of that, but now you live in a van down by the river, with no ability to purchase a replacement. It's a no win.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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Break this down to simpler terms. Higher home values = higher taxes. Income has to increase with inflation (not guaranteed) for this to help with anything. Just because relative to the cost of your house your mortgage debt had decreased, it's mental gymnastics. You still owe the exact same amount of money, and if you're income hasn't increased in parallel with inflation, you are considerably worse off. Sure you could sell your home and recoup some of that, but now you live in a van down by the river, with no ability to purchase a replacement. It's a no win.

You are correct, but I addressed that above. The labor shortage will make sure that income at least keeps pace with inflation.

If you don't get a raise, start interviewing, i guarantee you will!
 

viscountalpha

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There's a chance we could have a glut of silicon and then a crash of price of chips which, would be great up to the point that companies start going under because of it. We've created this house of cards, expecting things to be a certain way and it's no longer that case.

I forsee great hardship in the near future.
 

applegrcoug

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So just another little data point...

Three years ago it cost $3,300 to ship a truck load of apples from here in central Washington across the country to Boston. Now that cost is $12,000.

One truck load is 1000 boxes at about 40lbs per box. So just the freight is about 30¢/lb

So on the 60¢/lb bananas, how is that going to work when over half the sold value is currently freight?
 

Zarathustra[H]

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So just another little data point...

Three years ago it cost $3,300 to ship a truck load of apples from here in central Washington across the country to Boston. Now that cost is $12,000.

One truck load is 1000 boxes at about 40lbs per box. So just the freight is about 30¢/lb

So on the 60¢/lb bananas, how is that going to work when over half the sold value is currently freight?

Yep, the shortage of truck drivers has made freight a lot more expensive. Hopefully that will correct over time, but in the meantime it will result in certain products being unreasonably expensive.
 

chrcoluk

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Wont be any time soon, the entire world seems to have decided to jump on "we got shortages" bus and as such prices going up on all sorts of things.

I managed to get a 3080 FE at MSRP and feel like I got the timing golden, same as when I got a new 1080ti at heavy discount just before the expensive turing cards came out.

If you can get an FE go for it, thats your best bet.
 

sleepeeg3

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1. The government printed 25% more dollars in the last two years. We call this INFLATION.
The BS "supply chain" excuse is econ 101: supply and demand. Demand for that $100 product went way up, because there are more dollars to buy that $100 item. Now it's a $125 item, due to all the $100 items running out of supply. Expect to pay at least 25% more for everything than you were used to paying pre-COVID. Then add in the actual COVID work stoppages, work from home driving up need for chips and prices get even messier.
2. Crypto isn't going away. Ethereum will keep kicking the can down the road, because they won't be able to make a proof-of-stake ETH better than existing POS coins. Ethereum Classic will step in to keep GPU prices high, if they ever do transition.
 
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Zarathustra[H]

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1. The government printed 25% more dollars in the last two years. We call this INFLATION.
The BS "supply chain" excuse is econ 101: supply and demand. Demand for that $100 product went way up, because there are more dollars to buy that $100 item. Now it's a $125 item, due to all the $100 items running out of supply. Expect to pay at least 25% more for everything than you were used to paying pre-COVID. Then add in the actual COVID work stoppages, work from home driving up need for chips and prices get even messier.
2. Crypto isn't going away. Ethereum will keep kicking the can down the road, because they won't be able to make a proof-of-stake ETH better than existing POS coins. Ethereum Classic will step in to keep GPU prices high, if they ever do transition.

That assumes the stimulus overshot the goal, which I am just not sure is the case.

The intent was to make it just enough to make up for the spending that WASN'T taking place due to the pandemic, and judging by how many people are underwater on rent, mortgages, etc, it didn't even accomplish that.

So I'm leaning towards the price increases being shortage based and transitory, and I'm not in bad company. Most research economists and central bankers seem to agree. The question is when things will return towards normal, and how much they will return towards normal. Some of this will be sticky. We know that, but the unknown right now is how much and when.
 
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philb2

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That assumes the stimulus overshot the goal, which I am just not sure is the case.

The intent was to make it just enough to make up for the spending that WASN'T taking place due to the pandemic, and judging by how many people are underwater on rent, mortgages, etc, it didn't even accomplish that.

So I'm leaning towards the price increases being shortage based and transitory, and I'm not in bad company. Most research economists and central bankers seem to agree. The wuestion is when things will return towards normal, and how much they will return towards normal. Some of this will be sticky. We know that, but the unknown right now is how much and when.
+1
 

jlbenedict

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Break this down to simpler terms. Higher home values = higher taxes. Income has to increase with inflation (not guaranteed) for this to help with anything. Just because relative to the cost of your house your mortgage debt had decreased, it's mental gymnastics. You still owe the exact same amount of money, and if you're income hasn't increased in parallel with inflation, you are considerably worse off. Sure you could sell your home and recoup some of that, but now you live in a van down by the river, with no ability to purchase a replacement. It's a no win.

🤣
And for most of us peasants... our income does not rise along with everything else. 👎 (at least not nearly the same amount to keep up)
 

Zarathustra[H]

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🤣
And for most of us peasants... our income does not rise along with everything else. 👎 (at least not nearly the same amount to keep up)

That's why a lot of people are leaving their jobs right now.

This is th ebest time in recent history to get a raise. If you are working , you are in short supply and valuable. If you arent getting paid what you deserve, it's time to start applying for other jobs. Never feel like you have to stay where you are. You have to be prepared to leave a job at the drop of a hat in order to get what you deserve.
 

travm

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That's why a lot of people are leaving their jobs right now.

This is th ebest time in recent history to get a raise. If you are working , you are in short supply and valuable. If you arent getting paid what you deserve, it's time to start applying for other jobs. Never feel like you have to stay where you are. You have to be prepared to leave a job at the drop of a hat in order to get what you deserve.
I left because the management was dumb AF and made a pass at blaming me for something they fucked up. Quit on the spot. Actually slept on it, then quit next morning.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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I left because the management was dumb AF and made a pass at blaming me for something they fucked up. Quit on the spot. Actually slept on it, then quit next morning.

Lol.

I'm all for leaving a place that doesn't respect it's employees and pay them what they are worth. I might have lined up a replacement job first though :p
 

GOD'SlittleSERVANT

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Months to never.

At best I don't think the market will return to normal unless there's:
1) a massive crypto-crash.
2) Etherium actually transitions from proof of pollution to proof of plutocracy (eliminating 90% of the value of crypto currently being mined on GPUs).
3) NVidia (or AMD) release an updated generation of cards that inflict a 90-100% block on mining all GPU coins; not just ether.

1 is completely unpredictable. 2 has remained ~3-6 months out for at least a year and was being talked about as a future feature for even longer. 3 is unpredictable; but I'm not holding my breath on it happening sooner than the next generation of cards.s
I wouldn't say 1 is completely unpredictable. A bear market is coming soon. In a few months even.
 

Saabjock

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It took decades and several Presidents later, but I think we're finally going to feel the effects of moving all our production to other countries. You can only kick that can down the road for so long.

Just imagine when the price of fuel gets to the point where shipping items from China will have an impact.
Been saying it for years.
It was a short-sighted approach which netted corporations lots of money over time but will now put the rest of the country in peril.
Here's the kicker....neither you nor me as common people can go abroad, buy a component and come back through the airport without paying a 'king's ransom in duty costs.
Why should any company...(in any nation...not just the US) be allowed to kick workers to the curb and off-shore production without penalty?
As to card prices...
Those won't come down for quite some time as manufacturers and AIBs know they have a sustainable market for quite some time.
At some point, and it is well off...they may hit a point of saturation and only then will we see lower cost.
It'll be lower than it is now but it likely won't ever hit pre-Covid levels.
 
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LukeTbk

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I feel people do not fully weight how much advantage there was to the hyper specialization and how much downside it would have been to artificially fight it, before fully wishing that X would have stayed fully american and shielded by governement intervention of competition, look at change in quality and pricing of production of good of service that could not be moved around, like child day care :

Screen_Shot_2014-06-19_at_4.23.30_PM.png


Or did not for some reason:
1*RA62c92eND0LX4YRai7h8g.png
 

cjcox

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I feel people do not fully weight how much advantage there was to the hyper specialization and how much downside it would have been to artificially fight it, before fully wishing that X would have stayed fully american and shielded by governement intervention of competition, look at change in quality and pricing of production of good of service that could not be moved around, like child day care :

View attachment 407605
No graph on childcare regulation costs or lawsuits? Might help explain some things.
 

philb2

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Been saying it for years.

As to card prices...
Those won't come down for quite some time as manufacturers and AIBs know they have a sustainable market for quite some time.
At some point, and it is well off...they may hit a point of saturation and only then will we see lower cost.
It'll be lower than it is now but it likely won't ever hit pre-Covid levels.
Sad and depressing, but true.

I'm happy that I finally scored a 3060 Ti off the EVGA waitlist. Good price, but I had to wait 10 months.
 

rewted

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With the tarrifs still in place, 'rona still tanking work forces (and population's resistant to mitigation measures), shipping costs continuing to go up, and steady demand (and mining still being ridiculous)... as gamers we're f*cked.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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I feel people do not fully weight how much advantage there was to the hyper specialization and how much downside it would have been to artificially fight it, before fully wishing that X would have stayed fully american and shielded by governement intervention of competition, look at change in quality and pricing of production of good of service that could not be moved around, like child day care :

View attachment 407605

Or did not for some reason:
View attachment 407606

I've never quite figured out what drives childcare costs.

Operators/ Owners claim they have razor thin margins, employees are paid peanuts, and at face value their expenses seem limited (rent, some furniture and some toys)

Yet, childcare is crushingly expensive. It makes no sense.

What are driving these costs? Insurance?
 

LukeTbk

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No graph on childcare regulation costs or lawsuits? Might help explain some things.
Regulation I think explain almost all of it (how many child by worker declined and declined), which is something that could have occur (pushed by Union, public after an incident and so on) for many other things, specially if the international competition is artificially shut down.

What are driving these costs? Insurance?

I recently heard 2 different podcast about it in my feed, thus why I had it in mind for an example here I think.

It is mostly that even at very low margin and low worker cost, having a worker for every 7 (or even every 3 child in some location) + rent will cost a fortune before anything else is paid for.

Imagine 30K in salary a year employee than end up costing 42K after everything else insurance/retirement benefit and other non-salary employee related cost, need one employee for every 3 child minimum, not more than 15 childs in a high rent cost location (say just $2000 a month for it), you start with a $19.5K cost by child, nothing is paid yet (food, toys, activity, electricity, etc...). The actual price charged to parent tend to be much lower than the actual cost, because of government reducing the high cost they create.

It is a work intensive profession, which make that all the improvement we made does not help much, there is no reason that it would cost less today that it did in the far away past when no one could pay for it. Who knows if without international competition, say car making would have continued to be a workforce intensive affair instead of what it become and so on, let alone that it would be almost has impossible that chips making would have become has good if Taiwan did not became a giant specialized expert at making them and American company expert at designing them.
 
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RazorWind

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I've never quite figured out what drives childcare costs.

Operators/ Owners claim they have razor thin margins, employees are paid peanuts, and at face value their expenses seem limited (rent, some furniture and some toys)

Yet, childcare is crushingly expensive. It makes no sense.

What are driving these costs? Insurance?
I think it's driven mainly by the cost of the labor, and then by the cost of all the insurance and licensure they have to have.

The workers aren't paid very much, but you need kind of a lot of them.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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I think it's driven mainly by the cost of the labor, and then by the cost of all the insurance and licensure they have to have.

The workers aren't paid very much, but you need kind of a lot of them.

I'm trying to remember back to when I was in childcare in Sweden in the 80's.

I only remember there being like 3 - 4 staff to about 20 kids. My recollection may be off.

Lets take the estimate from LukeTbk above of $42k per year per staff member. That's $126k-$168k in staff costs per year.

Then, how much could rent be? ~$2500 per month? Utilities? Another 350 per month? So that's another ~$34k per year. Throw in another thousand or so per month to keep up with other supplies that need replacement on occasion.

So, total recurring costs (less insurance, which I have no idea how to quantify) of $172k-$214k per year in real recurring costs.

Operator should get a return on investment. Lets say 10%. That brings us to $189k - 235k per year.

Now divide by 20 kids, and by 12 months, and monthly costs per kid should be in the $790 to $980 range or $9,460 - $11,770 per year.

National average was ~$9,600 per year in 2018 ( newest numbers I could find) In Boston that number is $15k per year.

I guess I'm not that far off in my calculations. It all adds up I guess.
 

travm

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Lol.

I'm all for leaving a place that doesn't respect it's employees and pay them what they are worth. I might have lined up a replacement job first though :p
I had been looking for months. The issue was I was being paid fairly well, and they understood my value and skills. The market at the time (and even still) wasn't quite ready. Most places weren't interested in hiring a person with 15 years experience as an experienced worker, rather a start at the bottom kind of thing.
Fortunately I have loads of skills. I picked up some skilled labour work for a few months while I was looking. Built a house with a buddy actually. Then I got in on a large company that is building a new division, where I'm not expected to start at 0.

I'd do it again. I was respectful, spent my last day facilitating hand offs of my responsibilities, then peace out. I was not in a reasonable position to stay for two weeks, why would be a discussion over beers.
 

Krenum

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I feel people do not fully weight how much advantage there was to the hyper specialization and how much downside it would have been to artificially fight it, before fully wishing that X would have stayed fully american and shielded by governement intervention of competition, look at change in quality and pricing of production of good of service that could not be moved around, like child day care :

View attachment 407605

Or did not for some reason:
View attachment 407606
Who fuckin cares about child care...Just give em a iPhone and let Tik Tok take care of them...

Where's my damn video card?!
 

Axman

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Probably Q2 '22 when Intel steps in with Alder Lake/Arc bundles. Then AMD will drop prices and Nvidia will do ... who knows, Nvidia stuff.
 

crazycrave

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1. The government printed 25% more dollars in the last two years. We call this INFLATION.
The BS "supply chain" excuse is econ 101: supply and demand. Demand for that $100 product went way up, because there are more dollars to buy that $100 item. Now it's a $125 item, due to all the $100 items running out of supply. Expect to pay at least 25% more for everything than you were used to paying pre-COVID. Then add in the actual COVID work stoppages, work from home driving up need for chips and prices get even messier.
2. Crypto isn't going away. Ethereum will keep kicking the can down the road, because they won't be able to make a proof-of-stake ETH better than existing POS coins. Ethereum Classic will step in to keep GPU prices high, if they ever do transition.
I think the new money was for the new comers as to help settle the new soon to be Demacat family in
Who fuckin cares about child care...Just give em a iPhone and let Tik Tok take care of them...

Where's my damn video card?!
I had a RX 6700XT in my cart on BestBuy for after tax $1089 and also had the RX 6900XT in my cart for $1699 (today) I came down to earth before buying one .
 

Zarathustra[H]

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Probably Q2 '22 when Intel steps in with Alder Lake/Arc bundles. Then AMD will drop prices and Nvidia will do ... who knows, Nvidia stuff.

Triple down on RT, come out with "amazing" gimmick features that only works on their GPU's and bog down everything else, try more anti-consumer market manipulation to lock consumers in, etc. etc.

You know. Nvidia stuff.
 
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Krenum

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I think the new money was for the new comers as to help settle the new soon to be Demacat family in

I had a RX 6700XT in my cart on BestBuy for after tax $1089 and also had the RX 6900XT in my cart for $1699 (today) I came down to earth before buying one .
That's crazy money for a video card.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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That's crazy money for a video card.

My last three GPU's have all cost me over a grand

2013 - 6GB Kepler Titan - $1,000
2016 - 12GB Pascal Titan - $1,200
2021 - 16GB 6900xt (XFX Factory EKWB Waterblock - $1,799

The difference is that back then the money bought you something truly special person coming well above the rest at launch, that will last 3-5 years Today, not so much.
 

crazycrave

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That's crazy money for a video card.
I really thought about it today as newegg has 2nd hand sellers with RX 6600 and XT in the mid $600 to 750 range which is crazy for an 8Gb card .. then BestBuy was selling the PNY RTX 3060 for $619 if you was luck as it had 12Gb and last week the local store had one but I passed .

With the current prices for a used RX 5700 and XT the jump to an RX 6900 XT would not have been that great if ebay is right on used prices and I sold it and maybe my the RX570 8Gb .
 

Saabjock

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Eventually everybody wanting a GPU will get one.
It may take years but at that point there won't be this crazy demand.
I can wait or find a different hobby.
I will never pay 2x the MSRP for anything and that includes GPUs.
Sorry...not gonna happen.
 

crazycrave

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Eventually everybody wanting a GPU will get one.
It may take years but at that point there won't be this crazy demand.
I can wait or find a different hobby.
I will never pay 2x the MSRP for anything and that includes GPUs.
Sorry...not gonna happen.

When I am just rolling by and checking out things I see these so called Chirstians talking about investing in Bitcoin and like there Pastor is leading them to do it ..

So maybe some new video card buyers have yet to show there face and more demand on supply .

they where talking about George Oliver info, as an investment into Bitcoin
 
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philb2

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Eventually everybody wanting a GPU will get one.
It may take years but at that point there won't be this crazy demand.
I can wait or find a different hobby.
I will never pay 2x the MSRP for anything and that includes GPUs.
Sorry...not gonna happen.
Now that I (finally) got my 3060 Ti, I'm fixed for a long time unless some of the programs I use need a more powerful GPU. But as long as those programs perform well, then why upgrade.

PS: I'm not a gamer like most of you guys here. So fps isn't an issue for me.
 
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