When will Video Card prices come down lower?

edo101

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Hi all, I am looking to upgrade my 1080 Ti so I can play better at 4K and 4K 3D titles. I can get a used one for $1400 USD FTW3 or a black edition from EVGA at $1000. But this seems too high for cards as old as 2080 Ti. I'm very tempted to get it but also wondering how much longer I should wait to try and get one?
 

DanNeely

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Months to never.

At best I don't think the market will return to normal unless there's:
1) a massive crypto-crash.
2) Etherium actually transitions from proof of pollution to proof of plutocracy (eliminating 90% of the value of crypto currently being mined on GPUs).
3) NVidia (or AMD) release an updated generation of cards that inflict a 90-100% block on mining all GPU coins; not just ether.

1 is completely unpredictable. 2 has remained ~3-6 months out for at least a year and was being talked about as a future feature for even longer. 3 is unpredictable; but I'm not holding my breath on it happening sooner than the next generation of cards.s
 

travm

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Welcome to post covid. The likelihood that prices will retract is low.

We gotta maintain our class separations you know. It was getting scary for a few years, plebs being able to afford luxury items and what not. /S
 

LukeTbk

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I think one of the 2 element need to happen (maybe both)

1) When it will be possible to enter inside a walmart or bestbuy without thinking and being certain to be able to simply pick the PS5, Xbox of your choice, with all edition on the shelf like it was nothing special, for gamer sales you are now competing with a very good product selling for $500
2) Obviously, if it is possible to make good money with a $1100 card with crypto why would anyone sell it for less than that, that would make little sense

Having to predict not before 2022 spring and that would be nice to happen and I would consider that early (i.e. holiday season rush will put pressure on a backlog on the already large console backlog)
 

XenIneX

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1634849792669.png

/s (kinda)


When the supply chain improves, supply goes up, and demand comes down. I'd say not before early-mid next year. And that could easily be pushed out indefinitely.

I'd either hold out on that perfectly-adequate 1080ti, or no-life Best Buy drops and Newegg Shuffles.
 

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chameleoneel

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Its at least 3 years before the new chip fabs are operational, to help with supply. So....probably not until about 4 years from now.
 

travm

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Its at least 3 years before the new chip fabs are operational, to help with supply. So....probably not until about 4 years from now.
dont count on those to lower prices.... There will just be more supply of super expensive chips. Someone (read US) has to pay for those fabs. Expect more expensive cars as well. As in more expensive than even now.
 

philb2

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dont count on those to lower prices.... There will just be more supply of super expensive chips. Someone (read US) has to pay for those fabs. Expect more expensive cars as well. As in more expensive than even now.
I think the US gummint is going to pay for the fab to be built inside the US. National Security is the issue. And I agree with this. I may be in a minority here but I think that Taiwan as an independent country, it's on borrowed time. And expect the Communist party to impose a blockade of semi parts to the US if the US doesn't kowtow to His Supreme Exalted Most Royal Excellency and Total Ruler of the Known Universe. Anyone here besides me remember the Oil Boycotts of 1973 and 1979? There was mass chaos and worse at gas stations. A blockade now of chips to the US and to factories exporting to the US would wreck our economy pretty quickly.
 

travm

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I think the US gummint is going to pay for the fab to be built inside the US. National Security is the issue. And I agree with this. I may be in a minority here but I think that Taiwan as an independent country, it's on borrowed time. And expect the Communist party to impose a blockade of semi parts to the US if the US doesn't kowtow to His Supreme Exalted Most Royal Excellency and Total Ruler of the Known Universe. Anyone here besides me remember the Oil Boycotts of 1973 and 1979? There was mass chaos and worse at gas stations. A blockade now of chips to the US and to factories exporting to the US would wreck our economy pretty quickly.
Right, with more printed money.

The government doesn't ever spend your money, or cause inflation.... It's us.
 

LukeTbk

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I highly doubt it given the inflation of the USD. We're on month over month 5%+ inflation with no end in sight.
I never thought we would ever see montn over month value being used in common public talk for something like inflation and that amount sound quite extraordinary.

Source, everywhere I look it peaked in june at 0.9% for the month over month

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
September: 0.4%
Augut: 0.3%

The 5.4% is the last 12 month inflation. 5% month over month you triple price every 20.5 month or so.
 
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I never thought we would ever see montn over month value being used in common public talk for something like inflation and that amount sound quite extraordinary.

Source, everywhere I look it peaked in june at 0.9% for the month over month

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
September: 0.4%
Augut: 0.3%

The 5.4% is the last 12 month inflation. 5% month over month you triple price every 20.5 month or so.

I don't believe those numbers. Used car prices are up 26% in the past year. That's the real inflation number, and it's only going to get worse.
https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/price-trends/

used car prices.jpg
 

LukeTbk

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I don't believe those numbers. Used car prices are up 26% in the past year. That's the real inflation number, and it's only going to get worse.

Cars is a specially bad item (in term of inflation, but there is many of those for sure), but that really far from 5% a month over month, you would have seen a 80% jump for the average item and way way more than that for use car, considering all the issue with the production of new one that exploded the used market car value.

26% yearly would be around 2% a month, I get you do not trust those numbers, but which one do you use for that 5% figure ? Car is really special, would be a bit like looking at GPUs.

If you look at pound of banana
https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17850

Or a 2 liter of coke:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FN1101

One could think price barely moved since april 2020, it is really hard to access and cannot be done looking at just some items, specially not something only car that has a specially giant supply issue.
 
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Cars is a specially bad item (in term of inflation, but there is many of those for sure), but that really far from 5% a month over month, you would have seen a 80% jump for the average item and way way more than that for use car, considering all the issue with the production of new one that exploded the used market car value.

26% yearly would be around 2% a month, I get you do not trust those numbers, but which one do you use for that 5% figure ?

I'm not the person who said 5%.
 

crazycrave

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I would kick that i7-930 to the crub and get a 6 ccore Xeon chip dirt cheap or step up to a Ryzen 5900x and get some more scream from that 1080Ti for now .
 

LukeTbk

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According to Intel CEO during the last earning call, could see the situation continue to be strange (at least in some sector) until 2023:

https://www.theverge.com/2021/10/21/22739192/intel-chip-shortage-q3-2021-earning-laptop-revenue
“We’re in the worst of it now; every quarter next year, we’ll get incrementally better, but they’re not going to have supply-demand balance until 2023

Matching Nvidia statement that at least for most of 2022 it will still be a big issue.
 

serpretetsky

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I never thought we would ever see montn over month value being used in common public talk for something like inflation and that amount sound quite extraordinary.

Source, everywhere I look it peaked in june at 0.9% for the month over month

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
September: 0.4%
Augut: 0.3%

The 5.4% is the last 12 month inflation. 5% month over month you triple price every 20.5 month or so.
I think he was quoting charts like below, which from what I understand are showing monthly averages of the yearly inflation rate

https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/historical-inflation-rates/

So far doesn't look like anything TOO crazy (compare with 2007/2008 crash for example), but you never know and it hasn't stopped yet ! :D
 

philb2

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So far doesn't look like anything TOO crazy (compare with 2007/2008 crash for example), but you never know and it hasn't stopped yet ! :D
And economists did not foresee the supply chain shortages and the resulting inflation. This may be a "black swan" event or maybe the "new normal." Nobody knows, yet.
 

Zedicus

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how long does something need to be normal before it is the new normal?
 

applegrcoug

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Cars is a specially bad item (in term of inflation, but there is many of those for sure), but that really far from 5% a month over month, you would have seen a 80% jump for the average item and way way more than that for use car, considering all the issue with the production of new one that exploded the used market car value.

26% yearly would be around 2% a month, I get you do not trust those numbers, but which one do you use for that 5% figure ? Car is really special, would be a bit like looking at GPUs.

If you look at pound of banana
https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17850

Or a 2 liter of coke:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FN1101

One could think price barely moved since april 2020, it is really hard to access and cannot be done looking at just some items, specially not something only car that has a specially giant supply issue.
So what is better than cars? Steel? Plywood? PVC? All core items seem to be on the rise.

That banana one isn't going to be long term accurate either. And to compare apples to bananas, I am an apple grower in the state of Washington. What we are seeing are problems all over. Our cost of labor continues to go up, while the availability continues to plummet. Our base/minimum wage is in excess of $16/hr and will rise again next January. Other costs are on the rise, such as corrugated. THEN, the cost to ship is getting out of hand. The cost to ship has gotten crazy. So much so that east coast retailers are finding purchasing European imports cost effective over trucking US grown product from the West Coast. So as a food producer, we are being pushed by increased costs from all sides. That either means one of two things...our prices will have to go up to survive OR many of us won't survive and the supply will have to be constrained so the prices go up. Either way, prices go up.

As to the supply of semiconductors...Yes, the US is working to bring more semi-conductor manufacturing back to the USA. GEo-political Specialist Peter Zeihan recently made a short video about this very topic.

 

LukeTbk

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So what is better than cars? Steel? Plywood? PVC? All core items seem to be on the rise.
Well something that look at food, energy, commodities, cars, shelter, transportation service, medical cars, many hundreds of items like the cpi in my link. Not cherry picked items.

If one would look at plywood for your example, one would think were currently in a giant deflation has the price is down around 50% since end of may, while steel still soared during that time.
 

DPI

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Welcome to post covid. The likelihood that prices will retract is low.

We gotta maintain our class separations you know. It was getting scary for a few years, plebs being able to afford luxury items and what not. /S
I was with you until the /S
 
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edo101

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How much more fps did you gain with the same video card ?
Not really sure. Sadly I didn't have time to compare the two. I game exclusively at 4K so the differnces are not as big. TBH I had no issues with the i7-930. I ran it at 4Ghz 24/7 with HT. The main reason to upgrade for me was 3D Vision which has a bug where you need higher single core clocks and actually having the new technologies like native USB 3, SATA 3 PCI_E storage cards etc. This video tho is a rough estimate. There are definitely gains... But then again, I am not sure if this man OC'd the i7-920 (pretty much the same processor as an i7-930 except 200 mhz slower) because it makes a big difference. Anyways:



The i7-930 holds it own still if you're not looking for 120hz gaming in modern games. That thing is a beast that served me so well. crazycrave
 

crazycrave

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edo101 , I had an Evga x58 3Way Sli with an i7- 930 as i ran CX hd 5850's back then (March 2010) , I used it with hd 7950 eyefinity iRacing Sim then replaced it with a 290x .. Then somewhere out of the blue ebay dropped Xeon server chips and I got an X5660 6 core/12 t for cheap and I had it boosting above 4.6Ghz and added more memory as it had 6 slots and ended up with 18Gb at 1600Mhz tirple channel .. even ran CX RX 580 and 570 together and they worked great in 4k back then in 2019 .. her she is hitting 4.5Ghz with CX 570 http://www.3dmark.com/fs/19681543
then i fine tuned it more http://www.3dmark.com/fs/19125137

I had already side invested in 1st gen Ryzen(2017) also and just stayed there with AM4 and I just run a 3700x now as main rig but I also have a 5600x B550 rig that I been building as a project and I am just waiting for a break in video card prices lol ..

Thats a good video showing IPC
 
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Mopar63

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I think we need to consider that we may never seen the same pricing levels we have seen in the past. The overall cost to produce a GPU has increased. The cost for the sub components and the chips as well. Then factor in the overall cost of shipping has massively increased. Now add part shortages due to supply chain issues and demand being MUCH higher than any expectations. This is a giant Charlie Foxtrot that could be years to sort out but even then with inflation and the changes we are seeing in the world the pricing may be looking at a more static position. Sure the possibility of seeing prices fall to pre-covid levels exists but the reality is we are likely looking at a new pricing structure for GPUs going forward.
 

GamerKitty

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Cars is a specially bad item (in term of inflation, but there is many of those for sure), but that really far from 5% a month over month, you would have seen a 80% jump for the average item and way way more than that for use car, considering all the issue with the production of new one that exploded the used market car value.

26% yearly would be around 2% a month, I get you do not trust those numbers, but which one do you use for that 5% figure ? Car is really special, would be a bit like looking at GPUs.

If you look at pound of banana
https://data.ers.usda.gov/reports.aspx?ID=17850

Or a 2 liter of coke:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/APU0000FN1101

One could think price barely moved since april 2020, it is really hard to access and cannot be done looking at just some items, specially not something only car that has a specially giant supply issue.
I wonder if consumers are boycotting buying bananas like they are video cards due to large hikes in the pricing for them - I know they don't have "MSRPS" attached to them but I don't see people in the grocery stores screaming bloody murder at having to way over pay for them- makes you wonder.
 

Verado

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I wonder if consumers are boycotting buying bananas like they are video cards due to large hikes in the pricing for them - I know they don't have "MSRPS" attached to them but I don't see people in the grocery stores screaming bloody murder at having to way over pay for them- makes you wonder.
You will soon enough.
 

cjcox

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IMHO, we've dug a pretty big pit. I could see it taking a very very long time (8 years?). Even so, it won't return to "normal". It will "return" to what people will accept as the "new normal".

Btw, that can be applied to other things as well, like the economy is general.

What might change is a shift away from things that are GPU dependent. We might start appreciating games (for example) that don't need all that power.
 

LukeTbk

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I wonder if consumers are boycotting buying bananas like they are video cards due to large hikes in the pricing for them - I know they don't have "MSRPS" attached to them but I don't see people in the grocery stores screaming bloody murder at having to way over pay for them- makes you wonder.
I have a hard time following the message ? I see line for them not boycott (would they boycott it would become really easy to buy one). And what large price increase of Banana are you talking about ?

Pound of banana
September 2021: 0.597
September 2019: 0.574
September 2019: 0.569
September 2018: 0.573
 

Valnar

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It took decades and several Presidents later, but I think we're finally going to feel the effects of moving all our production to other countries. You can only kick that can down the road for so long.

Just imagine when the price of fuel gets to the point where shipping items from China will have an impact.
 

GamerKitty

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I have a hard time following the message ? I see line for them not boycott (would they boycott it would become really easy to buy one). And what large price increase of Banana are you talking about ?

Pound of banana
September 2021: 0.597
September 2019: 0.574
September 2019: 0.569
September 2018: 0.573
I was just referencing it to someone above that was saying prices spiked on bananas (others mentioned cars and various other things). I was being sarcastic because the logic that is applied to video cards not being purchased because of price hikes / gouging is not being applied to other things. My boss bought a BMW and normally be a sticker price (MSRP) and then any manufacturer / dealer deals - now and it's not just BMW they have added 5K to the sticker and I don't see anyone saying "I'm not buying a car above MSRP - they are lined up". I get a car is a staple and a graphics card is not but it boggles my mind to the logic being used.......I think I might be going Bananas (see what I did there) : )
 

LukeTbk

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above that was saying prices spiked on bananas
I just made a search of the word and I cannot find that.

applied to video cards not being purchased
But virtually all video card (excluding 6900xt special edition - 3090 type) are being purchased (probably before being made)

My boss bought a BMW and normally be a sticker price (MSRP)
Many used car are not regular price and MSRP on new one tend to be inflated by cars maker/sellers only offering the highest overpriced option package (and how much they offer you for your older car went down a lot which is an hidden cost, despite the street value of them having jump so are transaction fees being jaked up):

Incentive-v-ATP.-ATP-Graphic.png


In July 2021, the average new-vehicle deal was above manufacturers’ suggested retail price (MSRP).

It is obviously not similar to GPUs, but not that far either for popular models:

https://www.torquenews.com/1083/dealer-markups-10k-20k-now-common-due-car-shortage-here-s-why
Be prepared to pay as much as $20,000 more than MSRP for a popular model.
 
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