The Hybrid Car Is Already Facing Obsolescence

Megalith

24-bit/48kHz
Staff member
Joined
Aug 20, 2006
Messages
13,003
Due to falling gasoline prices, hybrids are becoming the VCR/DVD-combo players of the automotive world: these vehicles were originally marketed toward price-conscious consumers who wanted to save on gas costs, yet that proposition is no longer compelling with prices at the pump being just $2.40 a gallon. Those who are environmentally conscious are merely moving to fully electric vehicles, which, unlike hybrids, are enjoying a slow but obvious increase in sales.

Just 2% of US auto sales last year were of cars with both electric motors and internal combustion engines, according to a report published this month by New York-based consulting firm AlixPartners. That’s down from a peak of 3.1% in 2013. So what’s behind the drop in demand? Technology. Hydraulic fracturing (aka fracking), a drilling method that led to a boom in US oil- and natural-gas production, has driven down the cost of gasoline. Prices at the pump are currently just $2.40 a gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration, a government statistics agency, a decline of nearly 35% since 2013.
 

EdKiefer

Limp Gawd
Joined
Sep 4, 2012
Messages
226
While cheap gas prices might put a little damper on hybrids, full/all electric is still long ways away IMO.
Not only we don't have a standard for charging stations or infustruction for electric stations, they will be a secondary vehicle as they still have no way to do long trips.

I think bigger hamper will be gov incentives which probably will go away depending on politics.
 

Damar

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Jun 20, 2004
Messages
4,610
Pfft, $2.40 a gallon. I remember in the 80's when regular gas was 0.98 cents a gallon... because I was pumping it for a high school job.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Gavv
like this

SuperSubZero

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 21, 2000
Messages
3,780
I don't care about gas prices. They ebb and flow, go up and down, we'll see $6 gas someday, and we might see $1.99 gas someday (in California). For me it's about a reliable car with decent mpg and comforts, which is why I drive a BMW 340i. ///M

Hybrid cars bug the heck out of me cuz they have two lower-performance engines that add additional complexity for minimal benefit. I have little doubt that the Tesla 3 and it's competitors will utterly finish the hybrid market.
 

katanaD

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 15, 2016
Messages
1,987
my commute is about ~140 miles a day. all electrics simply dont work for me, yet ... hopefully
 

RealBeast

Gawd
Joined
Aug 4, 2010
Messages
648
Unfortunately, I don't see an electric Suburban replacing my ICE models in my lifetime since gasoline was 59 cents a gallon when I graduated from HS. :eek:
 

Dekoth-E-

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Mar 23, 2010
Messages
7,599
I don't care about gas prices. They ebb and flow, go up and down, we'll see $6 gas someday, and we might see $1.99 gas someday (in California). For me it's about a reliable car with decent mpg and comforts, which is why I drive a BMW 340i. ///M

Hybrid cars bug the heck out of me cuz they have two lower-performance engines that add additional complexity for minimal benefit. I have little doubt that the Tesla 3 and it's competitors will utterly finish the hybrid market.

Minimal benefit? I call significantly better range than any EV on the market and significantly better mpg without massive performance sacrifice more than "minimal" benefit. Right now EV's only work for anyone who lives in an urban area and doesn't drive far. Hybrid's are the only reasonable option for anyone else who wants to try and use less gas. That looking at production road maps will remain true for the foreseeable future. I doubt very seriously we are going to see a full EV anytime in the next decade at least with a 350+ mile range in the same size and price category as it's equivalent ICE counterpart. Let's be real for a moment, outside a massive jump in battery technology that allows for charge times similar to fuel times, ICE will continue being the better choice until EV have enough range to make up for long charge times. That is unlikely to happen for at minimum a couple decades if not several.
 

bwang

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 6, 2011
Messages
1,096
I wouldn't call hybrids obsolete just yet; until the charging infrastructure is in place, hybrids will always have the advantage of unlimited range, whereas even the state-of-the-art electrics get sub-250 miles on a single charge under ideal conditions. If you are a typical city dweller who deals with loads of stop-and-go driving, and also want to be able to do the occasional long trip, a hybrid lets you get very good city mileage without sacrificing the ability to go long distances when needed.
On the long run, hybrids will find a niche in high-performance vehicles like the i8 and the Porsche 918; nothing can touch the power density of an ICE with a blower, but gas can't touch the incredible peak torque density of a electric motor (the 40-pound motor inside a Gen2 Prius is good for 400Nm, which is practically V8 levels of torque).
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
The unnecessary complexity made it obsolete when I first heard of them many moons ago... Never been interested in one of those gutless pieces of increased maintenance shit...

Still interested in a proper transitional hybrid truck though... Always electric, with onboard fossil fuel generator when you need to go the distance... This arguably advances the correct technologies forward, ultimately phasing out the fossil fuel generator as a platform requirement...
Truck-on-Chasis-Overhead-Angle13.png


I'm also not a fan of pulling out into traffic only to die because my vehicle is a woefully under-powered hunk of hybrid shit...

upload_2017-7-15_11-38-36.png


My weak-ass short range 500e is quicker...
 

RogueTadhg

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Dec 14, 2011
Messages
1,527
my commute is about ~140 miles a day. all electrics simply dont work for me, yet ... hopefully

Tesla says the 60-kwh battery provides a range of up to 232 miles (the EPA pegs it at 208 miles), and the 85-kwh battery (a $10,000 option) provides up to 300 miles (the EPA puts it at 265 miles).

Try again, KatanaD.
 

Dan_D

Extremely [H]
Joined
Feb 9, 2002
Messages
61,225
The problem has always been that the price premium for a hybrid took away any hope of a reasonable break even point over traditional combustion engines. Additionally, fun hybrids were / are relatively rare. With gas prices on the low side there is even less reason to buy a hybrid. Lastly, with cars like the Tesla's getting cheaper and better it's only a matter of time before the hybrid becomes a relic. In fact, I think the internal combustion engine will probably outlive hybrids even if it's only as niche vehicles.
 
Last edited:

demingo

Trump is My President!
Joined
Feb 22, 2003
Messages
2,702
I'm also not a fan of pulling out into traffic only to die because my vehicle is a woefully under-powered hunk of hybrid shit...

The NSX does 0-60 in 3.1 seconds. What were you saying about hybrids? Don't confuse the technology with low end models. There are plenty of slow ass shitter gas cars too. The NSX is obviously an extreme example to prove a point. However look at the MDX Hybrid Sport.

The MDX hybrid will do 0-60 in 5.7 sec as a 3 row SUV. That's not a slouch by any means. It actually performs better and gets better gas mileage than the pure ICE MDX. Hybrid technology is the future and we're starting to see it evolve where it wins the performance and efficiency crown. Volvo is right, few more years and pure ICE cars will be relics.

The problem has always been that the price premium for a hybrid took away any hope of a reasonable break even point over traditional combustion engines. Additionally, fun hybrids were relatively rare. With gas prices on the low side there is even less reason to buy a hybrid. Lastly, with cars like the Tesla's getting cheaper and better it's only a matter of time before the hybrid becomes a relic. In fact, I think the internal combustion engine will probably outlive hybrids even if it's only as niche vehicles.

I think you're completely off base on this one. Hybrid technology is getting better and better. They are now starting to offer better performance and gas mileage. You will always pay a premium for Hybrid, but you will do so to get a faster more efficient car. Hybrids will slot in as the "upgrade" over base models.
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
The NSX does 0-60 in 3.1 seconds. What were you saying about hybrids? Don't confuse the technology with low end models. There are plenty of slow ass shitter gas cars too. The NSX is obviously an extreme example to prove a point. However look at the MDX Hybrid Sport.

The MDX hybrid will do 0-60 in 5.7 sec as a 3 row SUV. That's not a slouch by any means. It actually performs better and gets better gas mileage than the pure ICE MDX. Hybrid technology is the future and we're starting to see it evolve where it wins the performance and efficiency crown. Volvo is right, few more years and pure ICE cars will be relics.

upload_2017-7-15_11-51-8.png


upload_2017-7-15_11-51-23.png


Have fun with those super affordable, and more complex extra-maintenance machines...
 

SuperSubZero

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 21, 2000
Messages
3,780
Minimal benefit? I call significantly better range than any EV on the market and significantly better mpg without massive performance sacrifice more than "minimal" benefit.
The benefits vary of course, but you get into like the Prius which has no all-gas variant to compare to and gets a whopping 120hp (which I'll admit is 50% more than my 1984 Ford Tempo had!) or the current gas-only cars where they yanked out the engine and crammed in two of them (like the BMW 330e or Chevy Malibu) which do get rough 8-15mpg more depending on the model but you pay a premium for that. To me these hybrids are more purpose-bought. If you have a 150 mile daily commute, well, this might be a good commuter car. A true green hippie environmental person would probably be more coerced to reduce that commute. Heck I'm not one of those people by any means and I didn't like a 50 mile commute so I just.. moved closer to work (and to more jobs in general). When you go from filling up twice a week to once a month it really reduces caring about miles per gallon.
 

demingo

Trump is My President!
Joined
Feb 22, 2003
Messages
2,702
Have fun with those super affordable, and more complex extra-maintenance machines...

As I said the NSX is an an extreme example of how good hybrid tech can be.

The MDX is completely affordable. I don't even see why you say it isn't?!?!?!

It's priced exactly in line and in some cases cheaper than it's ICE competition from other manufacturers.
 

Dan_D

Extremely [H]
Joined
Feb 9, 2002
Messages
61,225
The NSX does 0-60 in 3.1 seconds. What were you saying about hybrids? Don't confuse the technology with low end models. There are plenty of slow ass shitter gas cars too. The NSX is obviously an extreme example to prove a point. However look at the MDX Hybrid Sport.

The MDX hybrid will do 0-60 in 5.7 sec as a 3 row SUV. That's not a slouch by any means. It actually performs better and gets better gas mileage than the pure ICE MDX. Hybrid technology is the future and we're starting to see it evolve where it wins the performance and efficiency crown. Volvo is right, few more years and pure ICE cars will be relics.



I think you're completely off base on this one. Hybrid technology is getting better and better. They are now starting to offer better performance and gas mileage. You will always pay a premium for Hybrid, but you will do so to get a faster more efficient car. Hybrids will slot in as the "upgrade" over base models.

Hybrids are getting better, but the fuel savings isn't enough to recoupe the initial investment costs. When the Prius came out, it was projected to take nearly 10 year break even point and that's only assuming you never had a battery failure. Hybrids are cheaper today, but again the payoff is still on the outside of what people tend to keep their cars for.
 

GotNoRice

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jul 11, 2001
Messages
11,256
"Hybrid" cars are a way for car makers to embrace the electric car trend without actually getting rid of gas engines. Like Volvo recently announcing that they aren't selling gas cars anymore... except that with many of their "hybrids", the gas engine still does most of the work...
 
Joined
May 27, 2017
Messages
674
How's maintenance costs for hybrids vs full electric (or pure gas for that matter). Mostly thinking about replacing the battery and it's lifetime, but I'm sure there are other things to consider.
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
How's maintenance costs for hybrids vs full electric (or pure gas for that matter). Mostly thinking about replacing the battery and it's lifetime, but I'm sure there are other things to consider.

Most battery warranties make that concern a non-issue...

upload_2017-7-15_12-32-25.png


upload_2017-7-15_12-32-6.png


upload_2017-7-15_12-32-51.png


Non-issue even in hybrids...

upload_2017-7-15_12-36-11.png
 

nutzo

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
7,380
I don't care about gas prices. They ebb and flow, go up and down, we'll see $6 gas someday, and we might see $1.99 gas someday (in California). For me it's about a reliable car with decent mpg and comforts, which is why I drive a BMW 340i. ///M

Hybrid cars bug the heck out of me cuz they have two lower-performance engines that add additional complexity for minimal benefit. I have little doubt that the Tesla 3 and it's competitors will utterly finish the hybrid market.

I'm in California and we will never see $1.99 gas, even if the oil was free. Our politicians will just use the lower costs to raise taxes even more.

You also need to educate yourself about hybrids.
Some are lower performance, tuned for mileage (Like the Pruis).
Some are just poor designs.
Others use the hybrid technology to not only improve mileage, but to also improve performance (Like the Camry hybrid)

A properly designed hybrid should also have a simplified drivetrain, leading to more reliability and less maintenance (Toyota hybrids are good at this).

There is a reason many cab companies use Toyota Prius as cabs.
Not only do they spend much less on gas, they also spend less on maintenance.
 

Dayaks

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Feb 22, 2012
Messages
9,086
First, electric can have way more power than ICE, the problem is range.

I am an EE so I love the idea of electric. My father and I converted over a 6HP gas outboard to electric.

Hybrids have a break even... all electrics don't. IIRC they can cost even more per a mile in cold climates (like PA). My wife wanted a hybrid Highlander and I told her no. I'd rather a keep it simple stupid ICE. I need it to be reliable and there's no real savings for that particular vehicle.

Personal transport is such a small part of environmental concerns it's a non factor to me. I think it's crazy we put all this emphasis on such a small % of energy use but not the inefficient megawatt motors still used in factories.
 

nutzo

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
7,380
Hybrids are getting better, but the fuel savings isn't enough to recoupe the initial investment costs. When the Prius came out, it was projected to take nearly 10 year break even point and that's only assuming you never had a battery failure. Hybrids are cheaper today, but again the payoff is still on the outside of what people tend to keep their cars for.

Depends on the car and what type of driving you do.
I had a 4 cyl Camry that averaged around 18 MPG due to my 90% city driving.
My current Camry hybrid averages 34 MPG with the same commute.

The Camry Hybrid was $3,000 more than the 4 cyl version.

When gas was over $4/gallon the payback for me was about 5 years, since I only drive about 5,000 miles a year
With gas currently at $2.70/gallon the payback is closer to 9 years.

There are also other savings, such as the brakes.
The pads still look like new after 4 years, so I'll likely get 150,000 miles out of them. Saves me the cost of a brake job.

Since I keep my cars 10+ years, I will eventually break even.
In the meanwhile, I get a longer driving range (600+ miles even around town, so less trips to the gas station), and more power (200 HP).

As for batteries failures, most cars should get at least 10 years, and the prices are coming down.
There are even companies the sell refurbished or will repair your existing battery pack since the problem is usually just a couple bad cells.
 

nutzo

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Feb 15, 2004
Messages
7,380
I'm also not a fan of pulling out into traffic only to die because my vehicle is a woefully under-powered hunk of hybrid shit...

My weak-ass short range 500e is quicker...

My 200 HP Camry hybrid is much quicker. Better mileage and the quickest 4cyl I've ever owned.

Fiat 500e Electric 2dr 0-60 mph 8.8 Quarter mile 16.8

2016 Toyota Camry Hybrid 0-60 mph 7.1 Quarter mile 15.5

2017 Toyota Camry 0-60 mph 8.0 Quarter mile 15.8
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
My 200 HP Camry hybrid is much quicker. Better mileage and the quickest 4cyl I've ever owned.

Fiat 500e Electric 2dr 0-60 mph 8.8 Quarter mile 16.8

2016 Toyota Camry Hybrid 0-60 mph 7.1 Quarter mile 15.5

2017 Toyota Camry 0-60 mph 8.0 Quarter mile 15.8

I'm glad you like it, that's how this works... You like it, you buy it...
 

sfsuphysics

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jan 14, 2007
Messages
15,461
Since I keep my cars 10+ years, I will eventually break even.
Yeah, not putting down people who want new cars every 5-6 years but I drive mine until the wheels fall off, or the maintenance becomes too costly.

Also, not sure if this is a hybrid thing, or a new engine thing but when I got my Prius 11 years ago I was a bit surprised that oil changes only needed to be done every 5k miles instead of 3k, and the most recent hybrid I bought for my wife (Rav4) needs them every 10k miles. So there's a few more dollars saved. But overall, the cost savings aren't really the selling point for me. Living in a major metropolitan area I'm happy with the thought that I'm never going to run out of gas just sitting in horrendous traffic, I do recall more than 11 years ago (pre-hybrid) there were times when I was like "oh I got plenty of gas to get home" turned into sweating bullets because some horribly accident added another 2 hours on to the drive time.
 

Nanan

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 29, 2007
Messages
1,235
Uh, the Tesla Model S could do over 200 miles on a charge since day 1, and even the Chevy Bolt can do over 200 miles on a charge.

Even factoring in fuel cost and tax deduction the base line S is still almost twice the price of my 2015 Vw GTI... I am hoping the 3 will actually retail in the 30k price point...
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
Everybody's over here arguing price, this or that reason, and I'm just sitting here like...

thumbnail-large.jpg


HDD's still have their relevant purposes... However, in time... #ICanHasMoreBetterSolidStateTransports

p.s. Enjoy your hybrids... For the capacity (range)...

Seagate_Momentus-XT_Solid-State-Hybrid_Review.jpg
 
Last edited:

demingo

Trump is My President!
Joined
Feb 22, 2003
Messages
2,702
Hybrids are getting better, but the fuel savings isn't enough to recoupe the initial investment costs. When the Prius came out, it was projected to take nearly 10 year break even point and that's only assuming you never had a battery failure. Hybrids are cheaper today, but again the payoff is still on the outside of what people tend to keep their cars for.

At this point hybrids are no longer about the fuel. They're about better performance as well. Newer hybrids are starting to offer better performance compared to their gas cousins. They will be an upgrade option not just an efficient option. You can still get a V6 on the MDX, the Hybrid premium which is only $3500 gets you more power and fuel efficiency. $3500 for a stronger engine and better mileage, sign me up.

So you have one?

Or two for that matter...

No, I own an Tech Package TLX (prefer sedans) which MSRPs for about $44k and the wife has a lease for a CRV Touring (33k MSRP). She will probably upgrade to the MDX when her CRV lease is up.

So yes, they are affordable and reasonable. I would say if you find them way out of your price range, the issue is not with the car, but with income.
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
I would say if you find them way out of your price range, the issue is not with the car, but with income.

I won't buy them for the same reason I wouldn't buy a hybrid SSD... I can't justify spending money on something I don't like, but I won't tell others they're not allowed...
 

demingo

Trump is My President!
Joined
Feb 22, 2003
Messages
2,702
I won't buy them for the same reason I wouldn't buy a hybrid SSD... I can't justify spending money on something I don't like, but I won't tell others they're not allowed...

That is perfectly legit and I would never debate you on that. But your original post said they have no performance and are woefully under powered. You followed up with overpriced. Both of which are patently false. As others have even mentioned, you can get Camry's and Accord hybrids for only $3000 over base and they offer better fuel and performance.

You don't have to like them, you never have to buy them, but claiming they're slow and expensive is just inaccurate. That was true for the first Prius 10 years ago, not anymore for most hybrids.

P.S. If Acura comes around to releasing a TLX Hybrid Sport I will very likely be trading up to that. Unfortunately they didn't offer one when I bought mine.
 

MikeTrike

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Nov 16, 2005
Messages
11,296
That is perfectly legit and I would never debate you on that. But your original post said they have no performance and are woefully under powered. You followed up with overpriced. Both of which are patently false. As others have even mentioned, you can get Camry's and Accord hybrids for only $3000 over base and they offer better fuel and performance.

For the complexity put into them, I still make that argument, but it's an argument from opinion... Which is why i'm not super pushy about it... I'll keep driving my $8,500~ SSD...
 
Joined
Jan 8, 2003
Messages
558
I do agree with the premise up to a certain point. Traditional ICE engines have become much more efficient over the last 10 years, especially on the highway. You can buy a non-hybrid and not feel like you've personally clubbed a baby seal to death using a smaller baby seal. If you want to be visibly green, a gas hybrid without a plug isn't going to win you many points, although these days they are often better cars than their non-hybrid stablemates.

In the long run, I believe that PHEV's like the Chevy Volt and Prius Prime will rule the 2020's and pure BEV's will take over after that, as it will finally become cheaper to include a giant battery than to shove in a gasoline drivetrain. Either way, even 20 miles of electric-only range will cover most trips and solve the passenger vehicle emissions problem. Pure BEV's are just icing on the cake for environmental impact.

Power generation, food production, and trucking / shipping are much thornier issues than passenger vehicles.
 

MV75

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Nov 13, 2007
Messages
1,025
Hybrids, lol. The joke of all trades. Lip service to cater to morons who pay an extra $xxK to "save" $4/week in fuel. Plug in hybrids are even more of a joke. "Let's get 50 miles on a charge (not reality as that 50 miles stated is for short bursts, not continuous driving), while lugging around a full ice drive system"! You'd save more money by not getting that tattoo sleeve and a shit load by making that coffee at home.

A 300mile ice or 250mile range full ev make more sense and are meeting adequacies for people. Why compromise with a non green less than half arsed effort or commitment by car makers joke?

Not only we don't have a standard for charging stations or infustruction for electric stations, they will be a secondary vehicle as they still have no way to do long trips.

lol. Elon released the charging infrastructure standard for nothing. To say there isn't one is to really be behind the times. They're everywhere. People do long trips all the time in them.
 
Top