Axman
[H]F Junkie
- Joined
- Jul 13, 2005
- Messages
- 15,027
This won't age well.But it doesn't matter, the point is that the legacy ICE industry cannot survive on just 20 percent of the US market - and maybe the third world - by 2030.
This won't age well.But it doesn't matter, the point is that the legacy ICE industry cannot survive on just 20 percent of the US market - and maybe the third world - by 2030.
There's an increase in range, but I don't think it's from a change in the battery chemistry itself yet, something else is behind the 16 percent at that step of the presentation, I think it will be more related to the overall pack redesign, I bet they achieved allot of weight savings there, but we'll see.
Maybe when the 520+ mile range Model S plaid comes out next year someone will dig into that, if they're brave enough to take apart a $140k vehicle lol. We'll see if Munro would do it, depends on the customers, hopefully a Chinese or Korean competitor will foot the bill again.
Kinda like broadband, where rural people still have zero infrastructure, lol. Great analogyDon't have to tell them anything, they can figure out how to fund their own infrastructure when car companies and gas stations go out of business or transition to EV support.
Both California and NY are banning ICE by 2030 in their markets, and the EU and China have similar measures, people there are not going to buy obsoleted technology, and companies that don't transition will not survive the competitors that do.
It's an EV, it can work with any plug, the infrastructure is basically laid out already for every home, but people will get tired of using extension cords and the infrastructure will further modernize for the rest of the rural population by demand, kinda like broadband. Businesses are already starting to offer them in malls and hotels to attract customers across the nation.
The state to state travel is already covered, and by end of next year we will have EVs that travel 500 miles:
(https://electrek.co/2020/01/01/tesla-updates-2020-supercharger-map/)
So yeah, sure, there will be pockets of aging infrastructure in the nation, but it's not the first time technology becomes mainstream before it reaches the niche corners of the rural market.
If you want some back-of-the envelope engineering analysis on this kind of thing:They aren't getting any more range out of the new cells... what is this bro talking about. Energy density still the same.
The current global trends are investing in stupidity and ignorance, nobody with any common sense is going to subscribe to that. It's like the dot com bubble 20 years ago where everyone lost their shirts on dumb ideas.
Both Tesla and NextEra, renewables companies, have passed Exxon in market cap, that should be a wake up call for people on how this obvious trend is the tip of the iceberg really, but if it's not, then all is good, don't worry, go back to sleep lol.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/10/0...y-nextera-surpasses-exxonmobil-in-market-cap/
Don't shoot the messenger, just follow the new money.
They are bigger batteries. It's like hey, we increased range, by adding more batteries.
Broadband is a monopoly. So no not like broadband fortunately. But hey on a side note, keep an eye out for Starlink, that's looking really really good for internet service.Kinda like broadband, where rural people still have zero infrastructure, lol. Great analogy. So you're basically saying no chance of 100% adoption or infrastructure for at least 15+ years.... With all the government subsidies for rural broadband it's still gotten nowhere, there is no way they are going to upgrade the grid + charging stations if there aren't enough people to turn profits. This is why I still can't get broadband to my house, despite living 15 minutes away from target/walmart/lowes. And by broadband, I mean, no cable, no fiber, no DSL... My options are satellite, which I have and can sustain a whopping 60KB/s with a 800-1000ms ping, "4G" cell tethering (notice the quotes, I get 4g, but it's not 4g speeds) where I am lucky to get 30KB/as but can sometimes get < 100ms pings. Yup, options. So if this is how electric grid rollout is going to be, northern california and rural new yorkers will be the first ones completely let down
.
If you want some back-of-the envelope engineering analysis on this kind of thing:
Place your bets haha.This won't age well.
Broadband is a monopoly. So no not like broadband fortunately.
Better hope the Chicoms decide to sell the world enough rare earth metals to supply all the batteries needed.Place your bets haha.
Dude, the grid, the solar adoption, the charging infrastructure, all that is being improved dramatically, just keep up with the news.You ever going to tell us how the massive amount of infrastructure including new power plants are going to magically appear, especially in BANANA[1] California? Or are you going to rely on unicorns to power all those cars?
The new batteries are supposed to be cobalt free and according the Musk there is enough Lithium and Nickel in the US to supply the batteries. Musk has been openly recruiting Nickel miners that mine responsibly.Better hope the Chicoms decide to sell the world enough rare earth metals to supply all the batteries needed.
Yup, no answer. Got it. Again: picture 12 buildings, 4 400-parking-spot parking garages in a one-block or so radius. How many chargers will you put in? Who's going to pay for it? How much will it cost? How much will the electric compnay have to spend to upgrade their lines leading into the area, how much will that cost, and how much will that raise everyone's electricity rates?Dude, the grid, the solar adoption, the charging infrastructure, all that is being improved dramatically, just keep up with the news.
Solar mandated on every new roof.
"Tens of thousands of $$ price hike on all new houses." Got it.
Yes, but you think well off Californians care that their $700,000 house is $730,000 with cheaper bills and better quality of life? They predominantly plan to add it themselves anyway, but the state doubles down and makes sure we modernize faster and cheaper with standadization, it has attracted many solar jobs and businesses to the state."Tens of thousands of $$ price hike on all new houses." Got it.
It's not the answer you wanna hear, that's not my problem man lol.Yup, no answer. Got it. Again: picture 12 buildings, 4 400-parking-spot parking garages in a one-block or so radius. How many chargers will you put in? Who's going to pay for it? How much will it cost? How much will the electric compnay have to spend to upgrade their lines leading into the area, how much will that cost, and how much will that raise everyone's electricity rates?
*Prepaid electricity.
Still a stupid mandate though.
$700,000 house
That's great for them. I don't want to pay that kind of money for a house, which is one train I don't live in CA.
Also, still waiting to hear how you plan on paying for my parking garage conversion. After 5 or 6 times you've ignored it, I assume you are constitutionally unable to admit you can't answer it without lots of dollar signs.
Yeah, I signed up for the beta the first day it was available, unfortunetly for me, I'm down south a bit, so I won't be seeing it anytime soon. I agree it's pretty monopolized. Like I said, I'm not even that far out there, lol. I was looking into creating my own WISP, but am hesitant to do so with Starlink getting close as it'll immediately render me obsolete and the startup costs are far from freeBroadband is a monopoly. So no not like broadband fortunately. But hey on a side note, keep an eye out for Starlink, that's looking really really good for internet service.
Hell my homestate of "rural" West Virginia might end up with better service than I do in the Monopoly crippled big city lol. I'm pretty excited for the family there, kinda jealous, the irony haha.
Didnt you hear him? There are smart people working on these things
Bigly men, with big hands. We do get some of the greatest minds in the nation, what else is new, right?Top. Men.
Bigly men, with big hands. We do get some of the greatest minds in the nation, what else is new, right?
But yeah, you guys seem to hate the idea of modern age manufacturing jobs flooding back to America, not sure why, maybe last century industry types. Anyway, California plans to corner as much as it can out of this trend, and Texas seems to be now in the running in a major way.
Which is good, because now there's a good chance we'll remain a strong economic player on the world stage, thanks to companies like Tesla and such.
Keep the lights on full time in your state and maybe finish that so-called high speed rail first, why don't you, before pretending all these magical construction jobs are ever going to exist.But yeah, you guys seem to hate the idea of modern age manufacturing jobs flooding back to America
Man I went to sleep and missed a bunch... Also I charge on a standard 120V wall outlet exclusively just because I want people to know how ignorant they are. Granted if I drove longer distances each day I'd need to consider using my 16A@240V to halve my recharge time.
Basically not everyone needs high speed recharging and should use the right till for the job.
Will do, you guys just sit back and watch, obviously pretty good at that part lol.Keep the lights on full time in your state and maybe finish that so-called high speed rail first, why don't you, before pretending all these magical construction jobs are ever going to exist.
"It's not the big that eat the small, but rather the fast that eat the slow."
Right, but solar is basically just prepaying for electricity.Have you looked at the up front costs of solar? It's easy to hit tens of thousands of dollars for one house, at least just a few years ago.
An opportunity for a wonderful Indiana Jones reference squandered...Didnt you hear him? There are smart people working on these things
Bit more than billions. Rough estimates are between 2 and 6 trillion for USA/CAD. Most of the current grid isnt upgradable anymore because its not only old but neglected.Major metropolitan areas have some of the worst infrastructure in the country, especially really old metropolitan areas. In many cases, you have over a hundred years of underground lines that were never designed to have the loads they now have placed on them and are running over capacity. Heck, New York still has Thomas Edison's DC service in some areas from the late 1800s.
Replacing and/or upgrading that infrastructure will cost billions of dollars, because unlike suburban and rural areas, you have to tear up major roadways and sidewalks to get at the stuff. If anything, suburban areas would probably see grid upgrades long before a major metropolitan area would.
Keep the lights on full time in your state and maybe finish that so-called high speed rail first, why don't you, before pretending all these magical construction jobs are ever going to exist.
Solar is a deferral of disaster to a later date not a solution.
Isn't that getting largely recycled? That's my understanding, and what I can find reference to - but nothing [H] worthy. But it's worth talking about the byproducts of all energy production- beginning to end, but it's very difficult to really come to grips with the hazardous leftovers from the oldest players in the industry.Second post for different discussion.
To anyone who thinks solar is still the savoir of the planet...
I want you to look into silicon tetrachloride and realize there is zero way to remove it from the PV cell manufacturing.
Solar is a deferral of disaster to a later date not a solution.
Totally agree.Global trends mean nothing once they run into reality. The reality is electric cars have no chance to be a primary form of travel any time soon in the US. Power generation won't support it. The power infrastructure such as power lines and homes won't support it. There are no places to put chargers for many places such as for people who park on the street or even many apartment buildings/complexes. These are only a few of the problems and all of them must be solved, not just one or two of them before it could possibly become a reality.
Here are a couple of scenarios for you to figure out the answers for. My old apartment complex consisted of quite a few buildings, all of which consisted of eight apartments each. All the parking was outdoors next to the buildings. There was no assigned parking. Where are you going to put all the chargers for the people living there? Who is going to pay for all the chargers to be installed? What happens when you have visitors who need to charge their vehicles before they leave? Is there going to be any parking at all for visitors since the spaces would need to be assigned? Even if they get a space, how do you deal with them needing to charge their vehicles since someone has to pay for the electricity they use?
Currently I'm living basically in the middle of nowhere. There are four people here and four vehicles. There is a garage but it's not next to the house and it only has two bays. How are you going to setup charging in this scenario? At least two vehicles must be parked outside at all times. What happens when we have company, some of whom live quite a distance away and will have to recharge before they can leave? Some of these visitors are only around for hours such as for certain holidays and there are quite a few of them with quite a few vehicles and they all need to recharge the vehicles. How am I supposed to deal with several extra vehicles while still needing to maintain power for house and other things? What happens during the winter when power can be out for a day or more? The wood furnace in the garage can keep that nice and cozy so we aren't going to freeze to death and the small generator is enough to run space heaters in the house to make sure pipes don't freeze but that's definitely not going to do any good with charging up to four vehicles. By the way, one of the vehicles is a 3/4 ton diesel truck and it's used for quite a bit of pulling. Battery tech sure as hell isn't nearly advanced enough to replace the diesel in that truck without needing to stop and recharge every 50-100 miles with some of the loads it pulls.
The people calling electric vehicles some sort of panacea don't have the first clue about what they are speaking about. They don't have any idea of the problems which must be fixed before electric vehicles can be more than a novelty. They also don't understand the amount of money required to make all of those changes.
Go ahead and parade the idiocy of California and other places saying they are banning anything but electric vehicles for new sales at some made up future date. It's not going to happen. California can't supply enough power for people to keep the a/c on in their homes when it's hot. What makes you think there's any chance of some sort of electric vehicle revolution coming anytime soon when all the signs point to it being literally impossible?
Nuclear waste is hugely overestimated by civilians who know absolutely nothing about it.But deferral has worked so well for the nuclear industry, everyone should totally adopt it for all hazardous compounds because it is a 100% effective strategy!
Nuclear waste is hugely overestimated by civilians who know absolutely nothing about it.
Reality is the worlds entire nuclear waste stockpile sits at 250k tons including all levels(if its not high level its basically harmless btw). Reality is also that the entire high level nuclear waste stockpile can be reprocessed safely using currently existing technology.
To put it bluntly there is only stored waste because it is currently not cost effective to process it.
Most waste is graphene. Radioactive in a technical sense but you could burry this stuff in your back yard and never notice it because it wont break down naturally. Radioactivity isn't organic.. it has very simple control methods for 99% of it. The last 1% is problematic sure but I bet you also didn't know that many industrial processes spontaneously generate nuclear material waste sometimes either(wastewater usually). Pound for pound nuclear still produces the least amount of waste per year and nearly all of the high level waste is recyclable. No other industry beyond the asphalt concrete industry can really get near that level of efficiency in waste. Oh... and unlike other forms of energy generation the nuclear powerplants are required to deal with their own waste. Solar they just dump in a landfill and the power company laughs because its someone elses problem.
Really? Funny. I have a wrench that was accidentally left in a reactor for a day in my garage. Yes its radioactive but you will get more exposure from a 5 hr flight.Anything that touches, or is in the vicinity of the reactor core, as well as anything in the coolant loop is considered high level waste. Radioactivity is the gift that keeps on giving, place anything near a highly radioactive element and it becomes radioactive itself. You can handle uranium pellets before they go into the reactor, but definitely not once they come out.
And standard non-answer answer. There's always some unicorn or fairy dust technology, material or method to reduce, reuse or recycle waste, but it's always just out of reach. All answers can basically be funneled down to "it costs too much damn money and nobody wants to pay for it". In the entire ~70 year history of nuclear energy, there has not been one nuclear power facility that has been anywhere near solvent. If the nuclear industry wasn't receiving billions of dollars annually in taxpayer funded subsidies to run power plants, they'd all be shut down.
Anyway, this thread is about batteries, not insolvent nuclear energy.