- Mar 3, 2003
Oil prices won't collapse, the price of plastics will just skyrocket.
If plastic production from oil was at the limit it would be driving the price of oil, not gasoline.Oil prices won't collapse, the price of plastics will just skyrocket.
If plastic production from oil was at the limit it would be driving the price of oil, not gasoline.
If over half of oil wasn't forced into gasoline and deisel, do you think the amount of plastic gained from a barrel of oil will still be the same.
I nowhere consume the amount of plastic as I do gasoline. Probably in the 5% range at worst.
Plastic may go up a bit, but it won't prevent the price collapse of oil. ggs.
What about all the people like me, who only replace their cars every 10-15 years?
I just bought a brand new car last year (replacing my 2001 model with over 200K miles on it) and plan to drive my new one until at least 2030.
We have a tiered rate structure.
Baseline is 16 cents, but the kwh amount is so low, anyone who owns a home will go over this amount. It then goes to 25 cents kwh, which is what any addition power to charge a car would cost. If I had a pool, or have a long summer heat wave, it can even go as high as 31 cents a kwh.
Using your example of the chevy volt and my electric rate, it comes out to $2.75 for 45 miles.
Gas is $2.83/gal, so it would cost me $3.18 to drive 45 miles in my Camry Hybrid (at 40 mpg). Slightly more, but it's a larger car than the volt.
If I drove a prius at 50 mpg my cost for gas would be $2.55, 20 cents LESS than a volt.
Of course I could spend a few thousand installing a 2nd meter and charging station in the house to get a lower nighttime rate, but between the added cost of the car and the meter, I'd likely be retired before I could break even.
I will get an electric car when the car can meet these criteria
1. Must be able to carry 6 to 8 people
2. Have good range with Heat/AC on
3. Must have number 1 with room for groceries for said number of people.
4. Go through a foot of snow while meeting criteria 1-3.
5. Cost about the same as a comparable ICE vehicle.
Until then I will be keeping my 02 Ford Excursion and paying out 150+ a month for gas.
You only need those materials one-time in the life of the car/battery and many of those elements/materials can be re-claimed when the car is disposed. Otherwise we'd have trouble with Aluminum already.1 ton of lithium takes 24 months of prep time.
A single Nissan Leaf uses 9 pounds of the stuff.
Then there is the rare earth metals for the motor....
I can't see it working at a mass global scale.
He might be right about businesses adopting electric vehicles and not people. People hold onto cars for much longer, and if fuel prices drop then they'll hold them even longer. But as a business electric vehicles are attractive. For one, they don't break down as often. Just change tires and brakes and in 10 years replace the battery. Plus they can be easily converted to self driving, which means you can fire a good amount of your work force. The problem is they don't refuel very quickly, unless you find a super charge station or buy more vehicles where you recharge some and use some.
But people are certainly not going to switch to electric unless it's cheap and not stupid looking. Seems like everyone else but Tesla makes ugly electric cars.
What you're listing aren't big issues. A failed engine, or a failed transmission are big issues. Almost anyway can replace shocks, springs, bushing and etc.Shocks, springs, bushings ..... my electric window stopped working, AC needs recharged, there is actually a whole lot more to what breaks on an ICE car then just the drive train. We need to focus less on what's different and try to remember how much will remain in common.
I'm surprised we still have meter men honestly. The only job with driving that can't be easily replaced is jobs like UPS, FedEx delivery men. But long hauling and taxi services can be done without a human. Probably better off too.I am having another issue with your post, you can't fire the drivers....... shit will still happen and someone will still have to be with the vehicles when it does. Unless the self-driving EV is going to drive onto my lawn to read my meter, there will still be a meter-man. Even in business, the purpose of transportation remains transporting people. I'm not seeing any fewer people on the bus just because the "driver" isn't actually driving it. Maybe we'll get to the Johnny-Cab stage in some areas, but certainly not universally.
Electric vehicles aren't a 100% better option over fossil fuel. They have their advantages and disadvantages. But in terms of maintenance costs, and fuel costs, and electric vehicle is superior. Given that the cost of batteries goes down.And an issue I have with EVs in general. Parts of the country already have issues with demand for electricity, more demand sometimes lowers prices, but sometimes it raises them. A lesser demand for fossil fuels should lower prices meaning people have good reasons to keep those old ICE engine vehicles when it comes to operating costs.
And an issue I have with EVs in general. Parts of the country already have issues with demand for electricity, more demand sometimes lowers prices, but sometimes it raises them. A lesser demand for fossil fuels should lower prices meaning people have good reasons to keep those old ICE engine vehicles when it comes to operating costs.
I take the old girl out every chance I get...I even burn lead additive so she stays happy...after all , I have to offset a dozen Prius'...or as they should be called... "Pius of shit"
I always wonder why people like vehicles like this. Old, stinky, lacking in modern amenities, shit for handling by modern standards, loud and obnoxious, vibrations and other nonsese, and piss-poor safety standards.
Regardless of how fixed up and renovated, whenever I see a 70's era muscle car still in operation, I can't help but think to myself "what a beater".
10 or so years ago Dr Robert Zubrin wrote an excellent book called "Energy Victory". He proposes replacing fossil fuel gasoline with methanol/ethanol/alcohol. I don't think when he wrote that book anyone would have foreseen the return of electric vehicles (this is right on the heels of "who killed the electric car" etc etc). Also this was back when gas was between $3-4 a gallon. I like the secondary plot point of the book, which is to produce our own fuel and stop throwing money at terrorist enabling nations.
According to this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flexible-fuel_vehicles_in_the_United_States , by 2014 half of the vehicles in America are flex fuel capable. But what happened to flex fuels? Oil/gas got cheap.
So OK, get rid of "gas" produced by crude oil in 8 years.... maybe doable. But unless some unforeseen battery technology marvel comes along, I don't see only electric cars in the next 20 years. I mean Teslas are great and all, but they're still $100k. Toys for rich people.