Rumor: Nvidia allegedly halting RTX 3000 production this October to keep prices as high as possible until 1H22

kamikazi

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Nvidia allegedly halting RTX 3000 production this October to keep prices as high as possible until 1H22

A friend sent me this link and I didn't find it here by searching. Could be complete rumor, but given nVidia's reputation, who knows.

Supply for the higher-end Ampere cards is still quite flimsy due to ongoing shortages and the increasing prices from the last few months are clearly reflecting that, yet Nvidia apparently managed to secure enough production from Samsung to hit projected sale targets for Q4 2021. Halting the supply this early could prevent a price crash occurring in Q2 2022, so Tom's sources allege that Nvidia’s goal is to artificially keep “fake MSRP” prices as high as possible until it launches refreshed or next gen GPUs with similar pricing schemes, making these inflated prices the new norm.

As per one of Tom’s sources, “at this point, it is more important to find a way to keep SUPER refresh prices as high as possible next year than it is to make extra money meeting demand this quarter.” These new refreshes are supposed to come with at least 12 GB VRAM to make them more appealing for gamers. Other sources report that Nvidia will significantly reduce shipments in Q4 and they are suggesting that this is an intentional decision. This has nothing to do with hoarding or wafer pricing disputes with Samsung, apparently. And gamers are supposed to swallow the inflated prices, even though AMD and Intel may have better value propositions, but still not backed by satisfactory supplies.
 

MacLeod

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I'm gonna choose not to believe this. Maybe I'm naive but I have to keep some kind of faith in humanity left..... Cause I'm about on empty.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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This is why they say for a free market to function properly you need 3-4 active competitors. Any less, and individual competitors can manipulate supply like this to try to optimize revenues.

it is unethical, monopolistic behavior and really ought to be illegal, if it isn't already.
 

MacLeod

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I mean I'd get it if they start rolling back production of the 3000 cards in anticipation of rolling out the Supers.... That makes sense to me and I don't think I'd have a problem with it. Hopefully that's what this is and not a case of Nvidia trying to artificially manipulate the market and further screwing gamers, their loyal customer base for the last 20+ years, any more than we've already been screwed this last year.
 

Derangel

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The rumor comes from MLID, who is FAR from anything remotely close to a credible source. Doing this would serve Nvidia no purpose. Nvidia is NOT making more money from the high prices of GPUs, FE cards they sell to retail remain at MSRP and there’s nothing credible out there showing that they’re charging AIBs more for chips. Unless Nvidia is planning to EOL all the cards and launch a new generation soon, this rumor smells like utter bullshit to drive clicks.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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From the article:

Nvidia is not only trying to convince AIB partners to use cheaper cooling solutions for Intel’s ARC non-reference cards

If this is accurate, as much as I hate it, I'm kind of amused.

This is a move straight out of Intel's playbook being used right back against them. Instead of competing fairly, leverage existing business relationships to try to kill off a new competitor early.

How does it feel to be on the other side, Intel? :p

And seriously, if they are actually doing this, I hope Nvidia gets sued bigtime.
 

Lakados

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Why does this Moore's Law is Dead thing keep getting reposted, it has already been declared BS in like 3, or 4 other posts on this topic. Other smaller sites keep reposting it because it's a slow news cycle and they don't have anything to really post until Apple finishes its keynote later today.
 

sfsuphysics

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Because of course they are... a year later and no way to get cards at the prices that they originally stated they would be (unless you're one of the few, the desperate and/or the ones with too much time on their hands to watch a bunch of discords for stock alerts <-- this statement just to shut up the people who are like "I've gotten 12 cards at MSRP what are you talking about?!") and they'll end up cutting back on supply even more. Yeah fuck you Nvidia, fuck you with your 3090 turned sideways!
 

Armenius

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Production on current Ampere cards is stopping because the forthcoming SUPER lineup supersedes the original cards.
Why does this Moore's Law is Dead thing keep getting reposted, it has already been declared BS in like 3, or 4 other posts on this topic. Other smaller sites keep reposting it because it's a slow news cycle and they don't have anything to really post until Apple finishes its keynote later today.
MLD stuff is banned on the subreddits I visit. Not saying it should be banned here, but people need to always look at the source so as to not bite the hook holding the clickbait.
 

Lakados

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4 Months ago, NVidia upended their production schedule and pushed other SKU's aside so they could get more Ampere chips out https://www.tomshardware.com/news/nvidia-production-capacity-ampere-gpus
They did this at the expense of their A-series and other Datacenter/Workstation class cards which are now very short on supply and OEM's are complaining, so now they have to shift their production back.
There is also the upcoming Super chips that get their own new SKU's, so yeah complete and total BS.
 

DPI

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Why does this Moore's Law is Dead thing keep getting reposted, it has already been declared BS in like 3, or 4 other posts on this topic. Other smaller sites keep reposting it because it's a slow news cycle and they don't have anything to really post until Apple finishes its keynote later today.

MLID / AdoredTV and all the lesser known, broken-english variants are just the 3.0 version of "forward this to five friends" chainletter trash you used to get from grandma. Unfortunate if any regular on this forum would fall for it.

But it's also a learning experience seeing it crop up everywhere, you see just how powerful viral misinformation is, and of course it's designed to be.
 
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Elf_Boy

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It seems in line with other 'activities' we have found NVIDIA was engaging.

https://www.techradar.com/news/nvid...consumer-practices-in-the-graphics-card-world etc

True or not I dont know -- IMO certainly a possibility.

No doubt even if NV stops making GPUs they will still order as many components as possible to keep AMD/Intel from picking up the slack.

I hope Intel lands on it's feet, with strong benchmarks/value, when it launches its GPU line.
 

LukeTbk

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The rumor comes from MLID, who is FAR from anything remotely close to a credible source. Doing this would serve Nvidia no purpose. Nvidia is NOT making more money from the high prices of GPUs, FE cards they sell to retail remain at MSRP and there’s nothing credible out there showing that they’re charging AIBs more for chips. Unless Nvidia is planning to EOL all the cards and launch a new generation soon, this rumor smells like utter bullshit to drive clicks.

Arguably that why it could be possible I imagine, i.e. if the price stay really high at the time to making deal with the next generation SKU with AIBS, they could sell them an at higher price.

If they would make much more money with higher price of GPUs, then the news would make less sense, because one would try to sell has much has they can at the current pricing.

Specially if Testla or other that want Samsung 8nm and make even more money by chips made paid Nvidia big money to have their space.

I doubt very much that it is not some exaggeration and considering Q2 shipment was lower than Q1 and all the current challenge this could occur naturally without any planning and be turned into news by the "source" that are speculating on the reason why their Q4 are expected to get lower instead of higher.
 

LukeTbk

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It seems in line with other 'activities' we have found NVIDIA was engaging.
Not sure if it is in line at all, was there any activities ever for which NVIDIA was not trying to sell has many card has possible ?
 

THRESHIN

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nvidia has been pulling jackass moves for years. does this really surprise anyone?
 

Derangel

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Arguably that why it could be possible I imagine, i.e. if the price stay really high at the time to making deal with the next generation SKU with AIBS, they could sell them an at higher price.

If they would make much more money with higher price of GPUs, then the news would make less sense, because one would try to sell has much has they can at the current pricing.

Specially if Testla or other that want Samsung 8nm and make even more money by chips made paid Nvidia big money to have their space.

I doubt very much that it is not some exaggeration and considering Q2 shipment was lower than Q1 and all the current challenge this could occur naturally without any planning and be turned into news by the "source" that are speculating on the reason why their Q4 are expected to get lower instead of higher.

Considering demand has not dropped, prices will remain high regardless. If Nvidia wanted to charge more, they could. AIBs don't really have a choice. Until/if Intel is able to prove themselves a viable alternative, it's a two horse race with one horse so far in the lead it's practically lapping the other.

The only scenerio where I could see this being the case is if Nvidia is slowing down production to build up production of new products. The rumored Super chips or the next generation. Otherwise there's little real purpose behind it.

nvidia has been pulling jackass moves for years. does this really surprise anyone?

Every single time one of these BS rumors pop up people go "Nvidia did these other shitty things before that must mean they're doing this entirely unrelated and nonsensical thing as well". It's a pretty darn big leap of logic to go from there to here.
 

Flogger23m

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Doubting it. Sure Nvidia could get more money by increasing value but they can also get more money by selling more products, keeping people engaged in the upgrade pattern, keep people interested in high end PC gaming, maintaining market share and more.
 

DPI

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Not sure if it is in line at all, was there any activities ever for which NVIDIA was not trying to sell has many card has possible

Nor does Nvidia benefit from "street prices staying high".
 

ChadD

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Why is everyone acting like this is illegal somehow. There is no rule stating you MUST sell product. Or even produce it. I mean last I checked no one was suing the likes of Ferrari for producing limited runs... and come on you nerds how many of you own some collectable figure or boxset ect that has a very exclusive 101 of 1000 stamped on the bottom. lol

As has already been mentioned the ONLY fix for this type of stuff is competition. Two players is not enough. I hope Intel has something promising. Still 3 probably isn't enough to keep companies from doing this type of thing either.

Just be thankful AMD has performance competitive offerings this round. Also cross your fingers that Intel will be as well... value competition is not going to keep Nvidia OR AMD for that matter from jacking the golden snitch parts up and up and up.
 

Derangel

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Why is everyone acting like this is illegal somehow. There is no rule stating you MUST sell product. Or even produce it. I mean last I checked no one was suing the likes of Ferrari for producing limited runs... and come on you nerds how many of you own some collectable figure or boxset ect that has a very exclusive 101 of 1000 stamped on the bottom. lol

As has already been mentioned the ONLY fix for this type of stuff is competition. Two players is not enough. I hope Intel has something promising. Still 3 probably isn't enough to keep companies from doing this type of thing either.

Just be thankful AMD has performance competitive offerings this round. Also cross your fingers that Intel will be as well... value competition is not going to keep Nvidia OR AMD for that matter from jacking the golden snitch parts up and up and up.

I have doubts, but I'm really hoping Intel is able to come out swinging on both the hardware and the software side.
 

LukeTbk

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Nor does Nvidia benefit from "street prices staying high".
Over long term (which would be alleged strategy), I would imagine that yes, on the next deals with AIB NVidia could charge more by chips no ?

Why is everyone acting like this is illegal somehow.
Not a single mention or any implication of anything illegal going on outside that one (it is unethical, monopolistic behavior and really ought to be illegal, if it isn't already), which was fully agnostic, considering how high of a market share Nvidia had lately on DGPU an imagine an legal argument could be made too.

Considering demand has not dropped, prices will remain high regardless. If Nvidia wanted to charge more, they could. AIBs don't really have a choice. Until/if Intel is able to prove themselves a viable alternative, it's a two horse race with one horse so far in the lead it's practically lapping the other.
This is my understanding, it is not like it would be realistically possible for NVidia to clinch the current + upcoming Christmas demand, which make the idea of not just making has much as they can a strange strategy, unless they know something about Eth shift this December that I do not. Considering Q2 was lower than Q1, they already have major issues, if it is not made up, people got news that Q4 would be lower than Q3 and speculated on why that would be the case.
 

sharknice

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The rumor comes from MLID, who is FAR from anything remotely close to a credible source. Doing this would serve Nvidia no purpose. Nvidia is NOT making more money from the high prices of GPUs, FE cards they sell to retail remain at MSRP and there’s nothing credible out there showing that they’re charging AIBs more for chips. Unless Nvidia is planning to EOL all the cards and launch a new generation soon, this rumor smells like utter bullshit to drive clicks.

Yep. You have to really hate NVIDIA to blindly believe this rumor. NVIDIA is losing out on tons of money by not producing more cards. Instead of accepting that people come up with crazy conspiracy theories because they hate NVIDIA so much. I do find this entertaining, but also kind of sad.
 

Ranulfo

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nvidia has been pulling jackass moves for years. does this really surprise anyone?

No. Just like anything AdoredTv or now MLID post is bound to freak out the blind haters of them. Good entertainment all around these days given the slow news.
 

rinaldo00

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I have no comment on the veracity of the claim that Nvidia is halting production, but there is one comment that I absolutely believe and that I have been predicting for months

refreshed or next gen GPUs with similar pricing schemes, making these inflated prices the new norm

You better believe that part is true.
 

DooKey

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I have no comment on the veracity of the claim that Nvidia is halting production, but there is one comment that I absolutely believe and that I have been predicting for months

refreshed or next gen GPUs with similar pricing schemes, making these inflated prices the new norm

You better believe that part is true.
If mining goes away then these prices collapse. NV is headed towards the same problem AMD had a few years back...lots of used prior gen selling cheaply when miners upgrade/quit.
 

DooKey

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If mining goes away then these prices collapse. NV is headed towards the same problem AMD had a few years back...lots of used prior gen selling cheaply when miners upgrade/quit.
Remember the fire sale 290's?
 

Lakados

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If mining goes away then these prices collapse. NV is headed towards the same problem AMD had a few years back...lots of used prior gen selling cheaply when miners upgrade/quit.
it does make sense that they would want to avoid the 2018 dilemma when they had to write down 23B in stock because of all the 2nd hand cards that flooded the market when the mining bubble burst. So if Ethereum goes PoS sooner than anticipated there may be something there..
 

rinaldo00

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If mining goes away then these prices collapse. NV is headed towards the same problem AMD had a few years back...lots of used prior gen selling cheaply when miners upgrade/quit.
People keep saying that even if/when Eth is no longer profitable to mine that there are plenty of others to switch to. Only time will tell.
 

Zarathustra[H]

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The tough part here is to decipher intent.

If they are cutting production to save themselves the pain they had at the tail end of 10th gen video cards when crypto momentarily took a nosedive and they got stuck with old inventory they couldn't sell, then that is a legitimate business decision. That was a painful time for Nvidia. There was so much excess inventory on shelves that wouldn't sell, and they were getting ready to launch their next gen GPU's.

This scenario seems less likely right now given how impossible it is for people to find GPU's. They should have no problem getting rid of supply, and if sales start slowing, they can just monitor that closely, and cut new orders at that time. That said, with the silicon fab industry as it is, maybe they ahve a very long lead on orders and have to make these decisions very early.

That said, you wouldn't think Samsung would care too much. If Nvidia started backing off on their orders, they have PLENTY of customers on the backlog that cna fill in. It should be relatively easy to back out of any unwanted orders before they start processing.

If on the other hand the allegation is true, and they are doing this in order to intentionally manipulate market pricing, it is highly unethical and possibly even illegal.

The problem is, intent is very difficult to prove in court. At least unless you get lucky with discovery, and no one wants to go on a fishing expedition.
 

rinaldo00

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it does make sense that they would want to avoid the 2018 dilemma when they had to write down 23B in stock because of all the 2nd hand cards that flooded the market when the mining bubble burst. So if Ethereum goes PoS sooner than anticipated there may be something there..
Unless there are others to switch to. Only time will tell.
 

Lakados

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The tough part here is to decipher intent.

If they are cutting production to save themselves the pain they had at the tail end of 10th gen video cards when crypto momentarily took a nosedive and they got stuck with old inventory they couldn't sell, then that is a legitimate business decision. That was a painful time for Nvidia. There was so much excess inventory on shelves that wouldn't sell, and they were getting ready to launch their next gen GPU's.

This scenario seems less likely right now given how impossible it is for people to find GPU's. They should have no problem getting rid of supply, and if sales start slowing, they can just monitor that closely, and cut new orders at that time. That said, with the silicon fab industry as it is, maybe they ahve a very long lead on orders and have to make these decisions very early.

That said, you wouldn't think Samsung would care too much. If Nvidia started backing off on their orders, they have PLENTY of customers on the backlog that cna fill in. It should be relatively easy to back out of any unwanted orders before they start processing.

If on the other hand the allegation is true, and they are doing this in order to intentionally manipulate market pricing, it is highly unethical and possibly even illegal.

The problem is, intent is very difficult to prove in court. At least unless you get lucky with discovery, and no one wants to go on a fishing expedition.
It's easy enough to say Nvidia is cutting back on Ampere because they want to make more money, but what are they putting in its place, Nothing, maybe Grace chips, silicon for the DGX systems perhaps, or maybe that new Nintendo silicon that has been rumored for months. I doubt that NVidia would just give up their fab time when they have a serious backlog of workstation & datacenter hardware which is relatively unaffected by the mining bubble and consumer demand.
 

LukeTbk

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It's easy enough to say Nvidia is cutting back on Ampere because they want to make more money, but what are they putting in its place, Nothing, maybe Grace chips, silicon for the DGX systems perhaps, or maybe that new Nintendo silicon that has been rumored for months. I doubt that NVidia would just give up their fab time when they have a serious backlog of workstation & datacenter hardware which is relatively unaffected by the mining bubble and consumer demand.
I imagine they would sell it to people wanting it and not simply give it up (that would be an virtually impossible scenario in the current environment I would imagine)
 

Lakados

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I imagine they would sell it to people wanting it and not simply give it up (that would be an virtually impossible scenario in the current environment I would imagine)
Right, buy why would they consider selling it off when they still have demand for workstation, datacenter, automation, and custom silicon that has yet to be fulfilled that is completely independent of the Ampere market. Unless they are selling off that production time for such a rate that it exceeds the profits from those other markets and makes up for the potential for their rivals to step in their place to fulfill the shortfall. But even if they were selling it for such a rate I am not sure investors would be pleased with that decision as they would be intentionally giving up long-term market growth for a relatively small cash infusion at a time when they already are operating at a surplus.
 

Teenyman45

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The tough part here is to decipher intent.

If they are cutting production to save themselves the pain they had at the tail end of 10th gen video cards when crypto momentarily took a nosedive and they got stuck with old inventory they couldn't sell, then that is a legitimate business decision. That was a painful time for Nvidia. There was so much excess inventory on shelves that wouldn't sell, and they were getting ready to launch their next gen GPU's.

This scenario seems less likely right now given how impossible it is for people to find GPU's. They should have no problem getting rid of supply, and if sales start slowing, they can just monitor that closely, and cut new orders at that time. That said, with the silicon fab industry as it is, maybe they ahve a very long lead on orders and have to make these decisions very early.

That said, you wouldn't think Samsung would care too much. If Nvidia started backing off on their orders, they have PLENTY of customers on the backlog that cna fill in. It should be relatively easy to back out of any unwanted orders before they start processing.

If on the other hand the allegation is true, and they are doing this in order to intentionally manipulate market pricing, it is highly unethical and possibly even illegal.

The problem is, intent is very difficult to prove in court. At least unless you get lucky with discovery, and no one wants to go on a fishing expedition.

You have that last bit mostly backwards. Nearly every litigating attorney worthy of the job title "wants" to go on discovery fishing expeditions even if they or their staff hate the actual slog through the documents. What you find while fishing, besides discovering the key documents to prove your current case, could reveal all sorts of things to lead to new claims or apply improper pressure to force an unfavorable settlement. This is why fishing expedition is a pejorative term that results in requests for discovery orders being denied.

The original rumor was that GPUs to AiB's and retailers was going to be cut back either from a pause in production or just from Nvidia outright hoarding for a little while. I can perfectly understand why a "company" might want to make as much profit in the current quarter as it can while a senior executive whose salary, bonus structure, and stock options would lead to a much greater net total by spreading out sales and beating Wall Street over to fiscal quarters rather than really exceeding in one quarter and then not exceeding by as much (or worse falling short) of profit expectations in the second quarter.
 

MavericK

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MLID / AdoredTV and all the lesser known, broken-english variants are just the 3.0 version of "forward this to five friends" chainletter trash you used to get from grandma. Unfortunate if any regular on this forum would fall for it.

Ha...haha...

I got a ton of shit for saying that MLID was full of crap back when the rumors about how "thousands of cards" were being held back and were suddenly going to flood the market and fill all demand back in October of 2020.

Surprise surprise, ended up being complete BS.
 
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