RTX 4xxx / RX 7xxx speculation

LukeTbk

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Guess that would make sense to release the niche card very high priced first to let the existing stock of 30xx cards all be solds at a high enough price.
 

vegeta535

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Guess that would make sense to release the niche card very high priced first to let the existing stock of 30xx cards all be solds at a high enough price.
Get as many high end chips first then sell cut down chips that didn't make the cut down the entire product stack.
 

havoc lingers

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Axman

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Sure, but all signs are pointing to Nvidia hitting the market with as much product as possible to curb AMDs next gen sales.
 

BassTek

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All the Nvidia leaks seem to follow the same pattern as the last launch so August/September seems likely. I don’t think they will have any production issues if they are back with TSMC and paid for process priority.
 

harmattan

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I mean everything is R*U*M*O*R*E*D for August-September-October: Lovelace, Zen 4 and Raptor. I do wonder what will launch of these. Wait for official statements.
These aren't really rumors, at least not the ones from substantiated sources. These "leaks" are well timed guerilla marketing. Some of them are true, while others are meant to mislead -- all are premeditated and well orchestrated. Those of us who've been following this game for a while know the patterns i.e. the pre-release marketing handbook, and how to read into them to form an idea of what to expect.

For example, the leaks almost always start with exceptionally optimistic, near outlandish claims (normally 3-4 months before launch)... just like the ones that started last month about the 2x performance improvement of Lovelace. We know from both basic logic and historical performance improvements this won't be the case. More recent rumors point to a 30% improvement which is likely an understatement set expectations lower, both to throw off the competition and to lay the groundwork for a pleasant surprise by reviewers and consumers on release.
 

pippenainteasy

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That makes sense. He also basically confirms that intel's GPUs will be crap.

Nvidia doesnt even have any conference events scheduled until late August. At best the first RTX 40 cards become available in early September.

Anyone thinking July was a possibility must imagine Jensen is going to suddenly do an impromptu press conference in front of the Four Seasons Total Landscaping.
 

os2wiz

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I'm sure they're both going to be ray tracing beasts and I think they'll be roughly the same in terms of power (trading blows here and there).

I thought both teams had decent reference coolers (AMD especially improved their coolers from previous generations), so I'm expecting that to continue.

I've got high hopes for Intel, I'm hoping they'll shake up the lower end enough so that Nvidia and AMD will start taking that category seriously again.
RDNA3is a hands down winner in performance per watt over Nvidia 4000 series gpus. The fina days for huge monolithic gpu and cpu dies is fast approaching either aNvidia adapts or it will perish.
 
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JasonLD

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RDNA3is a hands down winner in performance per watt over Nvidia 4000 series gpus. The days for huge monolithic gpu and cpu dies is fast approaching either aNvidia adapts or it will perish.

Oh man, didn't know Nvidia and AMD released new GPUs already. Please show us the benchmarks where RDNA3 GPU is winning in performance per watt over Nvidia 4000 series gpus. 🙃
 

os2wiz

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Oh man, didn't know Nvidia and AMD released new GPUs already. Please show us the benchmarks where RDNA3 GPU is winning in performance per watt over Nvidia 4000 series gpus. 🙃
Hey smart ass the specs on Nvidia and AD gpus have for the most part been released this past week. Act the arrogant sarcastic fool for now. The truth will be egg in your face.
 

Axman

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Oh man, didn't know Nvidia and AMD released new GPUs already. Please show us the benchmarks where RDNA3 GPU is winning in performance per watt over Nvidia 4000 series gpus. 🙃

The whole reason Nvidia is rushing to launch, potentially burning their own partners who are still holding older inventory, is because Nvidia is widely anticipated to lose on both fronts, performance per watt, and overall performance, for this generation. At least in general, as Nvidia might have some raytracing and DLSS wildcards to flog with marketing.

The only rumors about AMD producing an inefficient card is in terms of halo parts, potentially partner exclusives, and even then, I still wonder if 800 watts is just a throwaway target.
 

havoc lingers

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The whole reason Nvidia is rushing to launch, potentially burning their own partners who are still holding older inventory, is because Nvidia is widely anticipated to lose on both fronts, performance per watt, and overall performance, for this generation. At least in general, as Nvidia might have some raytracing and DLSS wildcards to flog with marketing.
I don't believe they're rushing at launch. 3000 series were the most lucrative business for them. And still is.
 

Axman

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I don't believe they're rushing at launch.

A 12-month cycle is very short. That goes for AMD, too. The upcoming gen was originally scheduled to launch just before the Christmas season for both companies.

I do believe Nvidia's strategy here is to sell the 4000-series at a price point they can command before AMD takes charge. It's the only thing they can do.
 

JasonLD

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The whole reason Nvidia is rushing to launch, potentially burning their own partners who are still holding older inventory, is because Nvidia is widely anticipated to lose on both fronts, performance per watt, and overall performance, for this generation. At least in general, as Nvidia might have some raytracing and DLSS wildcards to flog with marketing.

The only rumors about AMD producing an inefficient card is in terms of halo parts, potentially partner exclusives, and even then, I still wonder if 800 watts is just a throwaway target.

Ever since 2nd generation Kepler, Nvidia was always the ones launching ahead of AMD. Nvidia is not really rushing to launch.

Hey smart ass the specs on Nvidia and AD gpus have for the most part been released this past week. Act the arrogant sarcastic fool for now. The truth will be egg in your face.

Since when the specs released by leakers became official specs? 🤣
 

ZeroBarrier

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A 12-month cycle is very short. That goes for AMD, too. The upcoming gen was originally scheduled to launch just before the Christmas season for both companies.

I do believe Nvidia's strategy here is to sell the 4000-series at a price point they can command before AMD takes charge. It's the only thing they can do.
12 month? The first three GPUs in the RTX 3000 series were released in September of 2020, they are now nearing the 2 year mark. You might be confusing AMDs wonky release of the 6000 series where every single card was staggered. 6800xt and non in November of 2020, 6900xt in December 2020, 6700xt in March of 2021 and then the 6600 in August of 2021.
 

Axman

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12 month? The first three GPUs in the RTX 3000 series were released in September of 2020, they are now nearing the 2 year mark.

Oh jeez, you're right. I was thinking about the refreshes. I would have put money on them launching in 2021...
 

noko

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Looks like Nvidia will be launching at their normal cadence except the 3090Ti is an oddball late launch. Rumor, as it may be is the 3090Ti board and socket/pins, will be mostly the same for the 4090, which if true is interesting on how AIBs may have validated boards for the 4090 already, plug and play. And if the 4080 also uses the same board abeit different GPU, the same. In other words Nvidia appears to be ahead of the curve over AMD, not saying AMD is not ready for late 2022.
 

dave343

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I do believe Nvidia's strategy here is to sell the 4000-series at a price point they can command before AMD takes charge. It's the only thing they can do.
Exactly this. Nvidia probably wants to announce first so that they set the price tone --before AMD has a chance to. I don't see Nvidia wanting to lower prices, if anything I think they got a taste over the last 2 years of what people are willing to pay. They'll want to be their own middleman with pricing. 4090 MSRP 1999. Ti will probably let them add a few hundred more.
 

imsirovic5

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Exactly this. Nvidia probably wants to announce first so that they set the price tone --before AMD has a chance to. I don't see Nvidia wanting to lower prices, if anything I think they got a taste over the last 2 years of what people are willing to pay. They'll want to be their own middleman with pricing. 4090 MSRP 1999. Ti will probably let them add a few hundred more.

Looks like 3090 is finally selling near $1499 MSRP on Amazon, cheapest on Amazon I see at the moment is Asus at $1,549.99. Given this, I imagine NVDA prices 4090's somewhere between $1,499 to $1,999, if I had to bet, a lot closer to $1,999. Will be really interesting to see if we will be able to get this card within 10 minutes of initial release, or if it will be impossible just as it was the case with 3 series.
 

BassTek

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If last gen is any indication I don’t think AMD will try and disrupt pricing. The reference cards direct from AMD were great deals but the AIB cards were a joke. I fully expect this gen to be similar.

Performance per watt might be quite different across product tiers between the two but I expect price per performance to be similar.
 

imsirovic5

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Impossible.
Took me few weeks after third party vendors released constantly monitoring Discord to get 3 series. I really hope not to waste that much time this cycle to obtain 4090.... I refuse to pay premium to scalpers out of principle, not to encourage that behavior..
 
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harmattan

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If last gen is any indication I don’t think AMD will try and disrupt pricing. The reference cards direct from AMD were great deals but the AIB cards were a joke. I fully expect this gen to be similar.

Performance per watt might be quite different across product tiers between the two but I expect price per performance to be similar.
AMD definitely will follow nV's lead on pricing, at least for MSRP. And as you note, price to performance will likely be similar. What will happen this time, however, is where nV will lead on RT and somewhat on rendering performance, AMD will likely lead notably in power consumption. AMD is going to market the heckfire out of the power advantage, as well as increased support for FSR, whereas nV will push the performance crown and RT narrative.

Same dynamic as last gen, just even moreso. And just like with the 6xxxx series, people will initially be very excited by the pricing or the 7xxx series lauding it as a herald of value, but once things settle, they'll realize it's basically a wash when comparing rendering-price-features ratio between the two camps. Whether that equilibrium is due to an intentional collusion or simply incidental, I don't know -- in any case, it's the trouble with only having two competitors in the field...
 
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Axman

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Same dynamic as last gen, just even moreso.

I think AMD is going to clock Nvidia across the board except for DLSS, because they don't do that. Nvidia will only have "we launched first," and again, DLSS to bandy.
 

BassTek

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I think AMD is going to clock Nvidia across the board except for DLSS, because they don't do that. Nvidia will only have "we launched first," and again, DLSS to bandy.
I think Nvidia was surprised last gen, which is why the 3080 was moved up to the top chip shared with the 3090. This gen the 4080 is back on the second largest chip, so I’m pretty sure they both know the general performance to expect from each side and will have prices aligned accordingly.

If for some reason the 7800 ‘clocks’ the 4080 then there is lots of room for a 4080 ti to slot into the line up.

Also AMD isn’t here for charity, they aren’t going to give their cards away. If they perform the same or better as their Nvidia counterparts they will cost the same or more.
 

vegeta535

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I think AMD is going to clock Nvidia across the board except for DLSS, because they don't do that. Nvidia will only have "we launched first," and again, DLSS to bandy.
I think so too. Nvidia will still have a clear advantage with ray tracing I believe tho.
 
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All the Nvidia leaks seem to follow the same pattern as the last launch so August/September seems likely. I don’t think they will have any production issues if they are back with TSMC and paid for process priority.
No, you'll just see much higher MSRPs across the board.
 

evhvis

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No, you'll just see much higher MSRPs across the board.
Not sure if the market will accept it though. There have been quite a few 3080 and higher cards available in stock for the last few months with the 10gb version only being 20-30% above launch prices. Same for the lower tier cards and prices have been dropping towards MSRP. They will most likely only get away with a significant increase in MSRP for maybe a few months unless there is a huge increase in crypto prices.
 
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Not sure if the market will accept it though. There have been quite a few 3080 and higher cards available in stock for the last few months with the 10gb version only being 20-30% above launch prices. Same for the lower tier cards and prices have been dropping towards MSRP. They will most likely only get away with a significant increase in MSRP for maybe a few months unless there is a huge increase in crypto prices.
Well between wafer cost differences between Samsung 8nm and whatever they end up with at TSMC for 40-series, combined with what they saw people willing to spend for 30-series cards after getting lambasted for Turing, I don't know, I just get the sense you are not going to see a $699 MSRP 4080.
 

LukeTbk

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Not sure if the market will accept it though. There have been quite a few 3080 and higher cards available in stock for the last few months with the 10gb version only being 20-30% above launch prices. Same for the lower tier cards and prices have been dropping towards MSRP. They will most likely only get away with a significant increase in MSRP for maybe a few months unless there is a huge increase in crypto prices.
I was going to disagree and say If you can still sell 3080 10gb 20-30% above MSRP almost 2 year's after launch and with a new release on horizon I do not see why we would not see a huge increase in MSRP of 30% (actual price of the actual models that will be sold in the bestbuy, neweggs on launch versus the previous generation)

Maybe you are just having a different version of what huge increase of MSRP mean and mostly agree on the actual number.


But:
https://www.bestbuy.com/site/gigaby...ess-4-0-graphics-card/6471960.p?skuId=6471960

With $800 model on bestbuy.com, that not far from the announced MSRP price adjusted for inflation since september 2020 ($756)

Neutral MSRP here is a 10% bump, $550 USD for the 4070 would be keeping the same "price", which I guess could happen if they do a actual model sold are significantly higher priced special version, specially on the xx80 side where instead of being really close to the xx90 there seem to be a significant gap, but would not surprise anyone if it is the xx90 that get a bump to leave the room in the space instead of the xx80 to get a significant price cut and stay at $699.
 

evhvis

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Well between wafer cost differences between Samsung 8nm and whatever they end up with at TSMC for 40-series, combined with what they saw people willing to spend for 30-series cards after getting lambasted for Turing, I don't know, I just get the sense you are not going to see a $699 MSRP 4080.
There has been plenty of stock over here after the fall of crypto prices and a LHR version of the 10gb 3080 is listed about 20% or so above launch price and has been available for quite some time while the price was 60-90% above launch prices just 6 months ago and not in stock. Prices have been going down and cards have been in stock for quite some time now which is something that both Nvidia and AMD sees. If the sales are slow then they will adjust their next gen price targets accordingly.

The market decides the price and as long as crypto mining on GPUs easily payed for the cards then crypto miners bought everything they could get their hands on. Currently crypto is much less profitable if not operating at a loss in some places so people aren't running out to buy cards anymore. There are also not a lot of games that would require one to upgrade a 3070/6700xt or above unless rendering at 4k. The previous gen was disappointing outside of the 2080 and above so a lot of people I know where still on 1070 and 1080 cards so there was a much larger need to upgrade. My expectation is that there will be less demand from gamers and miners this time around unless they release something truly special with 50-70% performance/price ratio.
 
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There has been plenty of stock over here after the fall of crypto prices and a LHR version of the 10gb 3080 is listed about 20% or so above launch price and has been available for quite some time while the price was 60-90% above launch prices just 6 months ago and not in stock. Prices have been going down and cards have been in stock for quite some time now which is something that both Nvidia and AMD sees. If the sales are slow then they will adjust their next gen price targets accordingly.

The market decides the price and as long as crypto mining on GPUs easily payed for the cards then crypto miners bought everything they could get their hands on. Currently crypto is much less profitable if not operating at a loss in some places so people aren't running out to buy cards anymore. There are also not a lot of games that would require one to upgrade a 3070/6700xt or above unless rendering at 4k. The previous gen was disappointing outside of the 2080 and above so a lot of people I know where still on 1070 and 1080 cards so there was a much larger need to upgrade. My expectation is that there will be less demand from gamers and miners this time around unless they release something truly special with 50-70% performance/price ratio.
Let's be honest, gamers overpaid too. Crypto miners are not the only ones who bought 30-series cards.

But I do see your point. Will be interesting to see what happens. I'm of the opinion that Nvidia and AMD is greedy enough to try increasing prices next gen.
 
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