RDNA 4 Speculation — no "Nvidia Killer" this time, unlike RDNA 2

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LukeTbk said:
There something to be said about the mindshare of having the highest performing card over a large enough window of time, at least as a possibility, could be pure ego but the intel-amd-nvidia seem to act as if they care.

For the next release if the play station 6 is far enough away, Nvidia must which for an other Cyberpunk PC release type to be around the corner
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That's true to a point, and you do have Nvidia fanboys running around the internet bragging about the 4090 while they install their 4060 as if that has any relevance, but discerning shoppers would pick the best thing for their budget, and reviewers would be happy to recommend AMD if they provided that option. They really don't right now, that's the problem. They have in the past, but they don't right now.

LukeTbk said:
No one would name their source in that context (those people could lose their jobs) if they want anyone to talk to them ever again.
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I'm aware, but the point is that anyone can say anything about anything and claim they "have it on good authority" while shielding themselves from accountability because "they totally can't tell you why they know". Basically, there's no reason to pay attention to these rumours on account of that. It's too far out and there's no way to verify the veracity of the claim.
 
Gideon said:
No it will work, but the prices are too high for the performance given, thus people buying last gen hardware or not upgrading and sticking with what they have. They need to figure out a architecture that gets 6800 performance levels at $200 or less and is profitable. Also FSR and Ray Tracing are not things the value segment cares about much at all, so performance has to be there for low dollars and that will drive market share. It's also why Intel has seen some success as the value is there if you want to chance their driver support.
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They have quite a bit of margin room on GPUs as I understand, they just got addicted to selling at high prices to miners and are trying to figure out how much they can fleece the consumer. As far as a publicly traded company, finding what the market will bear is fine, but AMD is getting the snot beat out of it on that metric by Nvidia, so by all accounts they seem to have a hard time accepting what they market will bear.
 
HockeyJon said:
I'm aware, but the point is that anyone can say anything about anything and claim they "have it on good authority" while shielding themselves from accountability because "they totally can't tell you why they know". Basically, there's no reason to pay attention to these rumours on account of that. It's too far out and there's no way to verify the veracity of the claim.
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Agree in general with your comment.

Of late MLID's sources have been more reliable. Will wait for his take on the situation.
 
35-40%......

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AMD revenues are down 18% from last year Q2 and the net income was nearly 0:
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/pres...reports-second-quarter-2023-financial-results
  • Revenue declined 10% sequentially primarily due to lower gaming graphics sales. (note despite higher consoles sales)
The idea they would not want to have a bigger share of the GPU market to avoid being at the center of attention and criticism while saying the current leader Nvidia for some reason can avoid criticism sound like quite the mind spin and a bit ridiculous, so does the notion of 30-40% type of figure. The having an hard time to ship all the much more profitable than big GPU chips Epyc cpu command so there is not rush to sales 7700-7800 (mixed with inventory to go throught) a bit a la Nvidia has no rush until Hopper backlog goes down do make sense.
 
LukeTbk said:
35-40%......

View attachment 588111View attachment 588112


AMD revenues are down 18% from last year Q2 and the net income was nearly 0:
https://ir.amd.com/news-events/pres...reports-second-quarter-2023-financial-results
  • Revenue declined 10% sequentially primarily due to lower gaming graphics sales. (note despite higher consoles sales)
The idea they would not want to have a bigger share of the GPU market to avoid being at the center of attention and criticism while saying the current leader Nvidia for some reason can avoid criticism sound like quite the mind spin and a bit ridiculous, so does the notion of 30-40% type of figure. The having an hard time to ship all the much more profitable than big GPU chips Epyc cpu command so there is not rush to sales 7700-7800 (mixed with inventory to go throught) a bit a la Nvidia has no rush until Hopper backlog goes down do make sense.
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Yeah sounds like copium on his part or the part of the people he talked to IMO 🤷‍♀️ don't even care that much TBH, just recall hearing exactly what the guy I quoted was asking
 
Marees said:
Speculation on top of Speculation:

AMD could make this move work if they release the cut down RDNA 4 cards early, as nvidia releases their cards usually in a top down fashion. So AMD would have the "enthusiast" & "budget" market to themselves for the first 6 months of 2025.

https://ourdigitech.com/hardware/next-gen-amd-gpus-might-not-come-with-flagship-models/
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That would require AMD to release their RDNA 4 cards on the same node as their existing ones, so any and all advancements would have to come from design changes and improvements. Not impossible but not terribly likely.
 
Marees said:
Speculation on top of Speculation:

AMD could make this move work if they release the cut down RDNA 4 cards early, as nvidia releases their cards usually in a top down fashion. So AMD would have the "enthusiast" & "budget" market to themselves for the first 6 months of 2025.

https://ourdigitech.com/hardware/next-gen-amd-gpus-might-not-come-with-flagship-models/
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That’s not a terrible idea, it provides them a tick toc type release cycle compared to nvidia. Plus it would be better for consumers imo since you’d get new options every year or so instead of every two. Nvidia and AMD would just be switching up. Or maybe every 6 depending on what it looks like frankly.

They have to do something imo, like was mentioned earlier just slapping more memory on cards apparently is not working.

The die sizes and node orders like the guy before me said is indeed an issue but it could still happen. Get a new node out with their entry and mid tier stuff with new technology then release their top tier series later that out performs nvidia for the clout a year later. They’d start making sales on both ends of the spectrum.

Then again I’m just arm chairing this.
 
Marees said:
For context, AMD had internally branded the 6700 XT as the nvidia killer as it targetted the 2080 ti in performance
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And do you have "internal access" to know this or just firing off twitter rumours ? Ive seen this "nvidia killer" caper in other releases as well and it never turns out that way, just seems to be supposed leakers firing off bs to fuel the hype train.
 
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Marees said:
Quartering costs is 100% in AMD's hands

But increasing numbers depends also on people buying that stuff right.

If Jensen also decreases the price AMD will be left with a ton of sand in their warehouses
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When I say doubling numbers I mean frame rates. The original post wants RX6800 fps numbers at the RX6500 price tag.
AMDs engineers are good but I don’t know if they are that good.

But Yeah, Nvidia told investors in one of their quarterly meetings that they are holding a portion of the sales of the 4000 series in a slush fund so if they need the AIB’s to mark them down they have those refunds ready to go. But AMD hasn’t pressed them to the point where they need to and the cards are moving off the shelves slowly, but if rumours are true we are looking at the refresh coming closer to 2025 than not so the rate they are moving is fine for Nvidia as much faster they would risk running out with no resupply in sight.
 
I'm genuinely unsurprised: AMD's constrained by their TSMC allocations, and it's important to their future and their bottom line that they keep growing in the enterprise sector. Beyond that, they have to meet their quotas for their console and SoC customers, and the consumer and enterprise GPU businesses are bound to be left as the stragglers. They're being pinched out of the space and can't put up a fight against Nvidia. That said, RDNA wasn't a huge disappointment. I just don't think they're in a position to move the needle in a positive direction versus Nvidia.

It would not surprise me at all to see Intel usurp the role of #2 discrete GPU provider within five years. They're making improvements fast and have the resources to compete, and for my part I think Arc was an impressive debut. We'll see how Battlemage does down the road.
 
Is this news?
No one cares anyway. We all want AMD to go bankrupt and simply have nVidia gain 100% of the market.
There isn't a point in having a second or third GPU manufacturer. Intel needs to die in a fire too.
 
UnknownSouljer said:
Is this news?
No one cares anyway. We all want AMD to go bankrupt and simply have nVidia gain 100% of the market.
There isn't a point in having a second or third GPU manufacturer. Intel needs to die in a fire too.
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If you were disappointed by Nvidia overpromising and underdelivering before, just wait until they're monopolists.
 
Twisted Kidney said:
It's AMD, they will launch a slightly inferior product for a slightly lower price and then unleash their horrendous software support to make sure it ends up being a shit value.

AMD doesn't give a shit about gaming GPUs. Tiny volumes with high markups seem to keep them happy when it comes to discrete GPUs. Their gaming business is focused on consoles and nVidia's GPU business is focused on data centres.
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No its becuase when 6600 and 6600xt were faster, cheaper and people still bought 3050 because its nvidia lmao. Once everyone misses competition on the high end AMD will come back with RDNA 5, when people are paying nvidia 2k+ for 5090. and 1500 for 5080.
 
HockeyJon said:
AMD and Nvidia were actually reasonably close in market share until around after the HD7970, so it hasn't been an Nvidia blowout for the past 15 years.

Currently, AMD's pricing strategy is typically Nvidia's price but maybe with a slight-but-uninteresting discount and less technical features and one generation back ray-tracing performance, but they will include an excessive amount of VRAM. This doesn't work. 7900XT, for example, would sell very well if AMD priced it at $700, maybe $750 vs Nvidia's VRAM-gimped $800 4070Ti. Instead they launched it at $900 because YOLO or something and had to endure listening to reviewers tell everyone about how much it sucks for $900. There's AMD's problem in a nutshell.
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Have been plenty of time you have 7900xt below 800 now and thats been for a while. RDNA3 actually seems to be selling well may be AMD just wants to keep it until 2025. That is when nvidia is suppose to have 5000 series anyways and they want to release the RDNA4 earlier in 2024 to replace and lead with mid range and sell those ahead of time. Think NVidia is focusing more on AI anyway as gamers are going to have to wait till 2024 as things seem to have slowed down in gaming. Canceling 4090ti showed that to be the case as well. There may not be more apetite for faster and more expensive cards right now its seems.
 
Halon said:
I'm genuinely unsurprised: AMD's constrained by their TSMC allocations, and it's important to their future and their bottom line that they keep growing in the enterprise sector. Beyond that, they have to meet their quotas for their console and SoC customers, and the consumer and enterprise GPU businesses are bound to be left as the stragglers. They're being pinched out of the space and can't put up a fight against Nvidia. That said, RDNA wasn't a huge disappointment. I just don't think they're in a position to move the needle in a positive direction versus Nvidia.

It would not surprise me at all to see Intel usurp the role of #2 discrete GPU provider within five years. They're making improvements fast and have the resources to compete, and for my part I think Arc was an impressive debut. We'll see how Battlemage does down the road.
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Aren't the XBox & PS chips still on 7nm? Not cutting into AMD's 4/5nm allocation.
 
Toriessian said:
The beginning will meet the end. In two releases AMD will release the Radeon 9700 Pro and it will be an Nvidia killer.
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Yeah the numbers are coming back around, so in 2 generations we will have 9700 Pro again.. 9700XTX
 
VideoCardz round-up of the rumours:


while the rumor about AMD’s high-end Radeon RX 8000 GPUs lacking specific details, various sources indicate a possible shift towards the mid-range segment with a new RDNA3 successor. The possibility of an RDNA3 refresh with advanced GPUs and its potential use in next-gen Ryzen integrated graphics is also being discussed.


https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-rum...g_mdhKtxMFuiotjdlzAc-1691249360-0-gaNycGzNErs
 
Marees said:
VideoCardz round-up of the rumours:


while the rumor about AMD’s high-end Radeon RX 8000 GPUs lacking specific details, various sources indicate a possible shift towards the mid-range segment with a new RDNA3 successor. The possibility of an RDNA3 refresh with advanced GPUs and its potential use in next-gen Ryzen integrated graphics is also being discussed.


https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-rum...g_mdhKtxMFuiotjdlzAc-1691249360-0-gaNycGzNErs
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Still waiting on the APU’s this gen, I had hoped to see the Ryzen 5 7700G by now.
 
NKD said:
No its becuase when 6600 and 6600xt were faster, cheaper and people still bought 3050 because its nvidia lmao. Once everyone misses competition on the high end AMD will come back with RDNA 5, when people are paying nvidia 2k+ for 5090. and 1500 for 5080.
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People don't buy nVidia "because its nvidia lmao".

They avoid AMD because it's AMD.

AMD has to do the work to make people more inclined to purchase their cards. AMD shows no interest in doing so, their drivers are still a disaster and they let nVidia dictate their pricing structure. Between their gouging and flagrantly anti-consumer policies nVidia keeps setting up AMD for success but AMD just isn't all that interested in succeeding. Offering a card with slightly lower performance at a slightly lower price to a competitor that's gouging like mad is more than a little daft, offering that card with terrible support is just not trying. If anything the people buying AMD are only doing so because AMD isn't nVidia, justifiably. They're certainly not getting an equal product, it can take AMD years to get their shit together when it comes to the software on their GPUs.
 
Twisted Kidney said:
It's AMD, they will launch a slightly inferior product for a slightly lower price and then unleash their horrendous software support to make sure it ends up being a shit value.
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Horrendous software support? Is this 2002 or have I missed something? It really is funny how many people still believe the 'bad driver' bs that hasn't been a factor in years. Both nvidia and amd have the occasional dodgy driver set, yet when its an amd driver there's uproar. Remember that shite a few months back about a driver supposedly destroying cards in Germany? The hyperbole was off the charts, plenty of tubers and tech sites ran with it like it was fact...seemingly not for a single solitary moment thinking to themselves 'hmm, why is is only occurring in Germany, aren't these cards sold globally?'.
 
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Templar_X said:
Can you expound on this a bit? I've been using both Nvidia and AMD and I prefer AMD's control software by far, and have had no issues I can recall.
I know not everyone has the same experiences so I'm intrigued as to why call them a disaster at this point?
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It's generally what people that go by word of mouth believe, AMD inherited the 'bad driver' thing when they bought ATI, back in the day (20+ years ago) their drivers could be dodgy, but apparently people still like to hold onto the myth that that situation somehow hasn't improved in a few decades..
 
Chris_B said:
Horrendous software support? Is this 2002 or have I missed something? It really is funny how many people still believe the 'bad driver' bs that hasn't been a factor in years. Both nvidia and amd have the occasional dodgy driver set, yet when its an amd driver there's uproar. Remember that shite a few months back about a driver supposedly destroying cards in Germany? The hyperbole was off the charts, plenty of tubers and tech sites ran with it like it was fact...seemingly not for a single solitary moment thinking to themselves 'hmm, why is is only occurring in Germany, aren't these cards sold globally?'.
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AMD has come a very long way for sure but from a server/workstation perspective Nvidia is far more stable.
My Nvidia and Intel boxes don’t need me to check in advance for known issues for Windows updates or kernel changes. AMD not so much, the AMD rigs very much require me to test out how Windows updates interact with them, even more so for Linux kernel updates.
And while Intel security bios updates come seemingly bi monthly I’m yet to have them do anything strange. I absolutely can not say the same for the AGESA updates from AMD.

I absolutely hate paying for my Nvidia Grid licenses but my Linux VM hosts are very well supported, Nvidia answers the phone fast, they get in get it fixed and get out and document everything along the way including the commands they ran and any error messages they encountered along the way.
AMD sends me to their support forums and possibly to a page that has some basic instructions to follow which maybe work half the time and apply to my situation less than that.

And for pricing Nvidia works closely with education even more now that after school eSport teams are an actual thing and they are very competitive on pricing with their AI development kits for comp sci programs and robotics classes.
 
NightReaver said:
Yeah but is that what people are really talking about here and elsewhere? No. They're still acting like every AMD user gets black screens all the time and whatnot when playing games.
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Eh, past experiences with AMD and ATI video cards over the decades have me sworn off them barring some major shakeup. Why would I go with the inferior product when I can buy the better brand?

Amd is basically the store brand of cereal, without the box and made with a different formula. It's tough to shake that kind of reputation.... I like my dlss, raytracing, simple driver control panel, Nvidia inspector capabilities for older games, and Cuda support for my work. I'm sure I'll love frame generation once I have a 5xxx card too.
 


He's just reading the rumors but it matches up to this thread.
 
Bankie said:


He's just reading the rumors but it matches up to this thread.
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This is 100% my speculation. I don't have any information

AMD seems to have gone for chiplet design to optimize for die space (assuming crypto like shortage). But now that crypto is bust & Navi 31 (& also navi 32) failing to meet their power targets (GPU can scale to 4ghz), maybe it makes sense to scale the monolithic navi 33 to a lesser node (5nm or 4NP) rather than go head to head with nvidia on 3nm ??

All purely, my speculation of course, but it makes business sense.

kac77 said:
Steam players are reverting back to GTX 1660 graphics cards, despite Nvidia's best efforts

The Nvidia GTX 1660 released back in 2019, but Valve’s latest Steam Hardware Survey figures suggest people are still buying the graphics card. Rather than necessarily jumping from lower spec favorites like the GTX 1650 to the new RTX 4060, players appear to be sticking with the GTX line of GPUs for the most part.
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Interpretation one says that high-end GPUs are irrelevant to 99 percent of gamers and that AMD focussing on affordable graphics cards is actually a good thing. Give us 75 percent of the performance of a high-end Nvidia GPU for half the money, AMD, and everything looks pretty sweet.

Otoh, catastrophists will see RDNA 4's rumoured failure to compete at the high end as the next step on the way to AMD also exiting the desktop gaming GPU market. Instead, AMD will focus on console graphics and APUs, leaving the desktop gaming graphics market to Nvidia.

maybe its not a game AMD wants to get involved in.
After all, coming second and losing money on every card really would be pointless.

https://www.pcgamer.com/next-gen-am...dly-wont-compete-with-nvidia-at-the-high-end/
 
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