Radeon 6000 series speculation

I’ll be at work when ordering becomes live so I’m definitely going to miss out. It’s also probably going to be way over retail price in Aus like the rtx line.
 
zehoo said:
I’ll be at work when ordering becomes live so I’m definitely going to miss out. It’s also probably going to be way over retail price in Aus like the rtx line.
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In the HUB video he claims retailers are telling him supply is 3080-level.
 
Yeah I could have picked up a 3080 on launch night, for aud$400 over RRP.
 
TaintedSquirrel said:
In the HUB video he claims retailers are telling him supply is 3080-level.
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What you are going to see will be different from what NVIDIA has done.

AMD MBA cards will be in short supply up front. However, where you saw NV front-load almost all its cards, AMD is backloading. Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time. AMD will be heavily back-loaded into the channel. AMD is shipping ASIC BOM kits nearly daily to AIBs at this point and it will continue to happen throughout Q4. There will be a decent supply through Q4.

Now let me say this again as it is worth hearing. There is no way that when AMD was doing its projections for supply, that it could have even fathomed that NVIDIA would totally shit the bed on 3080/90 supply for the quarter, effectively abandoning the $500 to $1000 GPU TAM. NVIDIA has left such a gaping hole in the market that there is no way it can be filled currently. From my information and analysis, AMD projected to grow its portion of the TAM and will have inventory to do that. The sad fact is that NV simply abandoned its customer in that market and there is no possible way for AMD to fill the void.
 
FrgMstr said:
What you are going to see will be different from what NVIDIA has done.

AMD MBA cards will be in short supply up front. However, where you saw NV front-load almost all its cards, AMD is backloading. Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time. AMD will be heavily back-loaded into the channel. AMD is shipping ASIC BOM kits nearly daily to AIBs at this point and it will continue to happen throughout Q4. There will be a decent supply through Q4.

Now let me say this again as it is worth hearing. There is no way that when AMD was doing its projections for supply, that it could have even fathomed that NVIDIA would totally shit the bed on 3080/90 supply for the quarter, effectively abandoning the $500 to $1000 GPU TAM. NVIDIA has left such a gaping hole in the market that there is no way it can be filled currently. From my information and analysis, AMD projected to grow its portion of the TAM and will have inventory to do that. The sad fact is that NV simply abandoned its customer in that market and there is no possible way for AMD to fill the void.
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once AIB cards hit, will reference cards disappear, thereby dropping the AMD MSRP? or will they co-exist with more premium custom AIB designs?
 
FrgMstr said:
What you are going to see will be different from what NVIDIA has done.

AMD MBA cards will be in short supply up front. However, where you saw NV front-load almost all its cards, AMD is backloading. Once AIB cards hit, you will see 5 to 7 times the inventory released than what NV has shipped total in NA at this time. AMD will be heavily back-loaded into the channel. AMD is shipping ASIC BOM kits nearly daily to AIBs at this point and it will continue to happen throughout Q4. There will be a decent supply through Q4.

Now let me say this again as it is worth hearing. There is no way that when AMD was doing its projections for supply, that it could have even fathomed that NVIDIA would totally shit the bed on 3080/90 supply for the quarter, effectively abandoning the $500 to $1000 GPU TAM. NVIDIA has left such a gaping hole in the market that there is no way it can be filled currently. From my information and analysis, AMD projected to grow its portion of the TAM and will have inventory to do that. The sad fact is that NV simply abandoned its customer in that market and there is no possible way for AMD to fill the void.
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Any idea if the 6800 will have significantly more supply than the 6800xt? Honestly I'll probably grab whatever I can that is in stock for my new build. I suspect the 6800 will be the easiest to find due to being lowest performer and probably less attractive than the 6800xt given the amount of additional performance for the small price jump. Usually the lowest priced parts are made in larger supply as well but I was curious if you knew for sure. Thanks.
 
sc5mu93 said:
once AIB cards hit, will reference cards disappear, thereby dropping the AMD MSRP? or will they co-exist with more premium custom AIB designs?
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I was told that AMD is planning to keep a steady supply of Ref cards into the market. We will see if that is true or not.
ELox said:
Any idea if the 6800 will have significantly more supply than the 6800xt? Honestly I'll probably grab whatever I can that is in stock for my new build. I suspect the 6800 will be the easiest to find due to being lowest performer and probably less attractive than the 6800xt given the amount of additional performance for the small price jump. Usually the lowest priced parts are made in larger supply as well but I was curious if you knew for sure. Thanks.
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My information tells me that 6800 and 6800 XT ASICs being delivered through the quarter should remain pretty much equal.

We are also going to see AIB 6900 XT cards as well, and I was informed that those should be about equal to 6800.

If you hear that some AIBs will not be making cards this quarter, this is why. I know some AIBs have gotten greater amounts of stock because they committed to AMD to build X number of cards where some AIBs would not. So AMD has been shuffling stock to those AIBs that would commit to getting cards to market. AMD is working hard according the AIBs that they want to get as many GPUs on the shelf in Q4.
 
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Dang these cards are looking huge. My HTPC can only handle 10 inches of GPU. Looks like 3070 will fit, hoping for some smaller AIB designs.
 
AMD had an extra 2 months, I wouldn’t make any excuses if their cards sellout within 5 minutes. I don’t think either company expected such high demand and the sheer amount of useless scalpers/bots.
At least it looks like we’ve got a pretty competitive generation of GPUs, even if the prices keep creeping up.
 
Just hoping I can find a card on Wednesday - certainly feel better that more will be available but yeesh - yeah, knowing that nvidia didn't really allow people to purchase cards and didn't gobble up what normally would be theirs to take... this could be much more difficult :/
 
fuzzylogik said:
Just hoping I can find a card on Wednesday - certainly feel better that more will be available but yeesh - yeah, knowing that nvidia didn't really allow people to purchase cards and didn't gobble up what normally would be theirs to take... this could be much more difficult :/
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Yea... hope I can get one. I'll take a 6800 or a 6800xt
 
Even if AMD has 200% more GPU on Wednesday then Nvidia release,they are still going to sell out and be hard to get for some people.
 
gerardfraser said:
Even if AMD has 200% more GPU on Wednesday then Nvidia release,they are still going to sell out and be hard to get for some people.
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https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-market-share-q2-2020/

Previous quarter marketshare numbers had Nvidia at 80%, so AMD only sells 1/4 the amount of cards as Nvidia. They don't even need to produce more to have better supply.

With the shortage of 30 series cards, and the competitiveness of the RX6000 series, maybe by some miracle they'll hit 2:1 this time (66/33 split). Until they reach an even 50/50 split, AMD will have an inherent supply advantage.
 
TaintedSquirrel said:
Previous quarter marketshare numbers had Nvidia at 80%, so AMD only sells 1/4 the amount of cards as Nvidia. They don't even need to produce more to have better supply.

With the shortage of 30 series cards, and the competitiveness of the RX6000 series, maybe by some miracle they'll hit 2:1 this time (66/33 split).
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Last quarter marketshare is meaniingless.
1) AMD is competing on the high end now
2) Graphics Card shortage means brand loyalty is secondary to actually just getting a GPU.
 
TaintedSquirrel said:
https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-market-share-q2-2020/

Previous quarter marketshare numbers had Nvidia at 80%, so AMD only sells 1/4 the amount of cards as Nvidia. They don't even need to produce more to have better supply.

With the shortage of 30 series cards, and the competitiveness of the RX6000 series, maybe by some miracle they'll hit 2:1 this time (66/33 split). Until they reach an even 50/50 split, AMD will have an inherent supply advantage.
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I'm a pessimist so I actually see it the other way. AMD's supply chain is used to supporting just a quarter of the market. With AMD going up and competing not just at the entry level, they will be touching more of the user base. Not only that, they are touting some competitive bullet points on why their card is a good alternative. Combo that with the supply issues of people wanting 3000 series cards and not being able to get them still. Buyers will be in for a disappointment if they think they are going to get these cards easily.
 
What i don’t understand is why AMD took on the burden to manufacture Xbox and PS5 soc? They should have just designed it and then collected residuals on every sale while leaving manufacturing logistics to Sony and MS. That way they wouldn’t have to worry about playing a balancing act and lobby harder for more 7nm space for their discrete gpus.

This is a tiny window of opportunity they had to claw back marketshare from nvidia and i don’t see it happening again. NVIDIA will be hitting back much harder next round.
 
5150Joker said:
What i don’t understand is why AMD took on the burden to manufacture Xbox and PS5 soc? They should have just designed it and then collected residuals on every sale while leaving manufacturing logistics to Sony and MS. That way they wouldn’t have to worry about playing a balancing act and lobby harder for more 7nm space for their discrete gpus.
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What does it matter who asks for more fab space if there is no more? So what's the difference if Sony, MS or AMD put in the order? None, except AMD is a preferred custumer ahd has first dibs anyways. There is a shortage of fab space and space is reserved a long ways ahead of production. Estimating demand is hard to do, who knew of an impeding pandemic and stay at home last year?: No one.
 
5150Joker said:
What i don’t understand is why AMD took on the burden to manufacture Xbox and PS5 soc? They should have just designed it and then collected residuals on every sale while leaving manufacturing logistics to Sony and MS. That way they wouldn’t have to worry about playing a balancing act and lobby harder for more 7nm space for their discrete gpus.

This is a tiny window of opportunity they had to claw back marketshare from nvidia and i don’t see it happening again. NVIDIA will be hitting back much harder next round.
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Because AMD would make way more money selling console SOC's then their GPU's. I mean hell there have been like 110+ million PS4's sold....thats 110 million AMD chips. I think Xbox one is around 45+ million sold?

I don't think AMD will ever been able to sell that many GPU's. Well maybe if mining takes off again.
 
Mega6 said:
What does it matter who asks for more fab space if there is no more? So what's the difference if Sony, MS or AMD put in the order? None, except AMD is a preferred custumer ahd has first dibs anyways. There is a shortage of fab space and space is reserved a long ways ahead of production. Estimating demand is hard to do, who knew of an impeding pandemic and stay at home last year?: No one.
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If AMD is a preferred customer like you said, they’d then be able to get more space. If MS and Sony don’t have as much leverage, that would be their problem.
 
5150Joker said:
If AMD is a preferred customer like you said, they’d then be able to get more space. If MS and Sony don’t have as much leverage, that would be their problem.
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You can't get more of something that is not there.
 
Brackle said:
Because AMD would make way more money selling console SOC's then their GPU's. I mean hell there have been like 110+ million PS4's sold....thats 110 million AMD chips. I think Xbox one is around 45+ million sold?

I don't think AMD will ever been able to sell that many GPU's. Well maybe if mining takes off again.
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But their financials clearly show they don’t have large margins with those contracts. With high end gpus they command 50% margins and would stand to make a lot of money.
 
5150Joker said:
But their financials clearly show they don’t have large margins with those contracts. With high end gpus they command 50% margins and would stand to make a lot of money.
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True, but we don't know what deal Sony and MSFT have this time with AMD. With Zen2/3 and RDNA2 inside those consoles, its totally possible they were asking for more money this time around. This time AMD has very strong products that are now tops in the PC/gaming industry, they could of asked for more $$$$.
 
Mega6 said:
You can't get more of something that is not there.
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Space is finite but rather than allocate it for consoles they could compete against it. In fact they could have just built a version of console RDNA 2 on 8nm and passed it on to Samsung. There were alternatives and yah NVIDIA coming up short was probably unexpected for them but AMD also knew they had a contender with big navi and could have planned around capturing more of the discrete market. This opportunity probably won’t come again.
 
5150Joker said:
Space is finite but rather than allocate it for consoles they could compete against it. In fact they could have just built a version of console RDNA 2 on 8nm and passed it on to Samsung. There were alternatives and yah NVIDIA coming up short was probably unexpected for them but AMD also knew they had a contender with big navi and could have planned around capturing more of the discrete market. This opportunity probably won’t come again.
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Samsung, really? Look how that turned out for Nv.

Edit: And who says Samung has fab space anyways? Nobody does.
 
5150Joker said:
Space is finite but rather than allocate it for consoles they could compete against it. In fact they could have just built a version of console RDNA 2 on 8nm and passed it on to Samsung. There were alternatives and yah NVIDIA coming up short was probably unexpected for them but AMD also knew they had a contender with big navi and could have planned around capturing more of the discrete market. This opportunity probably won’t come again.
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If you look at Ampere, that was not a very good alternative at all. Power hungry, possibly terrible yields on 8nm.....
 
Brackle said:
True, but we don't know what deal Sony and MSFT have this time with AMD. With Zen2/3 and RDNA2 inside those consoles, its totally possible they were asking for more money this time around. This time AMD has very strong products that are now tops in the PC/gaming industry, they could of asked for more $$$$.
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Good point, if they have better margins then financially i hope we see that. I’d love for their stock price to double within a year.
 
Brackle said:
If you look at Ampere, that was not a very good alternative at all. Power hungry, possibly terrible yields on 8nm.....
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Well by design Ampere requires gddr6x and special FE cooling and is a giant chip. RDNA 2 is a safer design and I think a console soc could have worked at Samsung, especially since their CU count is a lot less than Big Navi.
 
5150Joker said:
Well by design Ampere requires gddr6x and special FE cooling and is a giant chip. RDNA 2 is a safer design and I think a console soc could have worked at Samsung, especially since their CU count is a lot less than Big Navi.
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Well the gddr6x isn’t true. We know they can use gddr6 because they already do on their professional ampere card. Problem it’s still super power hungry :(
 
-Strelok- said:
AMD had an extra 2 months, I wouldn’t make any excuses if their cards sellout within 5 minutes. I don’t think either company expected such high demand and the sheer amount of useless scalpers/bots.
At least it looks like we’ve got a pretty competitive generation of GPUs, even if the prices keep creeping up.
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AMD was two months behind Nvidia. This is just mere minutes in the long scope of GPU design and production. Are you imagining they were just sitting around waiting for Nvidia?
They both expected such a high demand because they both are offering an actual leap in performance and somewhat back to earth prices.
 
polonyc2 said:
it's going to be interesting to see the gaming benchmarks with ray-tracing enabled...with no DLSS alternative I'm guessing the new cards are going to look really bad against Ampere
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Well you need to really narrow down the field to have RT enabled titles, and even more so for DLSS in your Nvidia approved benchmark suite..
I play VR are neither of those boutique features exist in any game.
When a feature works for a small amout of games, and not all games, it is marketing. The consoles will define all RT going forward. Who's GPU's do they use?
 
funkydmunky said:
Well you need to really narrow down the field to have RT enabled titles, and even more so for DLSS in your Nvidia approved benchmark suite..
I play VR are neither of those boutique features exist in any game.
When a feature works for a small amout of games, and not all games, it is marketing. The consoles will define all RT going forward. Who's GPU's do they use?
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ATI
 
funkydmunky said:
When a feature works for a small amout of games, and not all games, it is marketing. The consoles will define all RT going forward. Who's GPU's do they use?
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That sound ridiculous, imagine saying that supporting DX12, openCL or vulkan is just marketing because it does not work on all game

Of all the PS5 big launch, RT feature

Damon Souls: no ray tracing
Spider Man: yes
Godfall: yes
Dirt 5: yes
WRC - 9 : No
Assassin Creed: no
Watch dogs: yes
devil may cry 5: yes
Borderland: yes
Fortnight: yes
Destiny 2: no
Call of Duty Black Ops: yes
Mortal kombat 11: No

It seem to be rather common, it could be just a fad, but like you said bot console has RT tracing and a lot of their titles (most of the big one ?) use it.

VR title and console are both place where dynamic resolution make a lot of sense (and thus where we could see a jump of use in the best upscaling to be made), I imagine seeing that almost all games on console these days use dynamic resolution that we will see this coming on PC as well.
 
LukeTbk said:
That sound ridiculous, imagine saying that supporting DX12, openCL or vulkan is just marketing because it does not work on all game
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I fail to see what you are tying to say.
I am talking about boutique feature that are only for one system. The ones you mentioned are available for all modern GPU's. What's your point?
 
funkydmunky said:
I fail to see what you are tying to say.
I am talking about boutique feature that are only for one system. The ones you mentioned are available for all modern GPU's. What's your point?
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Maybe I typo, you wrote when a feature does not work on all games, not when a feature does not work on all system.

And raytracing will very soon work on most system the new game being made will have in mind, if the new console get made and sold.
 
5150Joker said:
But their financials clearly show they don’t have large margins with those contracts. With high end gpus they command 50% margins and would stand to make a lot of money.
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Whatever the actual margins are, AMD is making more from Playstation, than their desktop GPUs. No doubt. Its a volume thing. PC GPUs cannot at this time even dream to touch those numbers.
Additionally, Sony and MS help a lot in funding AMD's R&D. This time around, maybe more than ever. That's also a very important thing to consider and has contributed to AMD's ability to be able to offer RDNA2 in its current form, to the PC space.
And similarly, AMD's products are as good as they are, because of where they are being manufactured. And as it stands, it seems there is no better place right now.

These are very important relationships and it would not be beneficial to AMD to step back from them, even an inch.
 
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