NVIDIA reportedly wants to cut TSMC orders for next-gen RTX 40 GPUs 5nm wafers amid lower demand

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LukeTbk

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"For now, retailers’ more immediate concerns appear to be the stockpiles of RTX 3000 cards that they are growing “desperate to move”, as worries mount that they won’t be able to sell the graphics cards for a profit."

The sad truth is that retailers want to wait for the used cards to sell before their inventory is released. If they're going to not make a profit then someone somewhere needs to lose a yacht.
Not sure if you quoted the right message or the right part or just re-affirming exactly what is writing in it ?
If all it takes for AMD to grow in market share is to get Nvidia only AIB's to sell their cards then AMD would have had 50% market share long ago. Fact is too many people buy Nvidia and Nvidia only. That works against AIB partners.
It is not all that it take, but it seem trivially obvious that the more AIBs sell Nvidia only, more AIBs spend more on the marketing/devs side of Nvidia than on AMD side and so on the better.

AIB relationships don't matter. As long as it doesn't ruin Nvidia's image
I am not sure you are saying here, AIB relationship don't matter has long has it not terrible enough to ruin NVIDIA image in the industry and hurt their relationship with AIB.. yes you are just repeating the same thing but by stating that it is false, while saying that it does matter the very next sentence.

Like I said, Nvidia could sell Founders Edition RTX 4090's all day long and still sell out because their mind share is that big.
That seem an empty statement, yes Nvidia could make and sell a marginal amount of FE 4090 and those cards are still physically made by their partners which make that distinction very small is there is one here.

What that means is that Nvidia could let AIB lose money or eat the cost and still be begging for more, cause the reality is Nvidia can make chips and sell cards while AIB's can't.
Nvidia does not make card and starting to make cards
1) I am not sure is particularly simple
2) I am not sure they would not significantly worst at it than companies that are specializing at doing only that
3) Nvidia would put a lot of money and energy in what I imagine is a really low margin endeavours, margin that is correct for very low risk company but not necessarily for Nvidia.

Nvidia could release the 4060-4070 this year just after the 4090 and just say eat it to AIBs and reseller and so on yes, but I bet you that they wont has for one their incentive are not totally unaligned there.
 

DukenukemX

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Not sure if you quoted the right message or the right part or just re-affirming exactly what is writing in it ?
I think you missed the part where it says retailers having stockpiles of RTX 3000 cards. People selling cards on Ebay aren't retailers.
 

LukeTbk

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I think you missed the part where it says retailers having stockpiles of RTX 3000 cards. People selling cards on Ebay aren't retailers.
But the message you quoted say:
yet to be shifted by board partners and retailers

I never talked about people selling cards on ebay and the debate was about if Nvidia have stock of unsold cards.
 

DukenukemX

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But the message you quoted say:
yet to be shifted by board partners and retailers

I never talked about people selling cards on ebay and the debate was about if Nvidia have stock of unsold cards.
You mean Nvidia cards not including AIB cards? They're the same thing. If a retailer can't sell any sort of Nvidia card then it's an Nvidia problem. Ebay is an indirect Nvidia problem.
 

Axman

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Cant wait for the usual suspects around here to chime in that miners snagging cards has little to no impact on supply/demand.

*Hobby* miners. Not mining firms. Nvidia in particular didn't do much to hide the fact that they and their partners were selling cards directly to mining firms.

Hobbyists were just as screwed by that as gamers were.

We're also dealing with mining firms selling at least six months' worth of inventory all at once. It's not a 1:1 conversion of mining hardware turning into used stock, so the bubble bursting effect is really amplified.
 

LukeTbk

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You mean Nvidia cards not including AIB cards? They're the same thing. If a retailer can't sell any sort of Nvidia card then it's an Nvidia problem. Ebay is an indirect Nvidia problem.
We seem to have completely lost the plot.

duke: The situation for Nvidia is far worse than anyone could think of. Firstly they have a shit ton of RTX 3000 chips or cards laying around that they can't sell.
Me: I am not sure Nvidia have that much stock of unsold FE edition cards around or chips (which I imagine would often be sold before being made), isn't the AIB that are in big trouble ? (which if Nvidia want to keep good relationship mean that Nvidia are indirectly partly in trouble has well and they can change the release schedule of lower model to keep them happy, but it is not their stock/money in play)

I think you fully agree and just posting stuff that fully confirm the first sentence since the beginning but I am not sure.

Has for the part that a retailer could not sell a 4090/4080 nvidia card because they have a mountain of 1650, 2060 and 3060 cards that sound false, when it is indirectly very much an AMD/Nvidia problem stock of old cards (used or new), but it is a lesser Amd/Nvidia problem that if they owned the said stock.
 

DukenukemX

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We seem to have completely lost the plot.

duke: The situation for Nvidia is far worse than anyone could think of. Firstly they have a shit ton of RTX 3000 chips or cards laying around that they can't sell.
Me: I am not sure Nvidia have that much stock of unsold FE edition cards around or chips (which I imagine would often be sold before being made), isn't the AIB that are in big trouble ? (which if Nvidia want to keep good relationship mean that Nvidia are indirectly partly in trouble has well and they can change the release schedule of lower model to keep them happy, but it is not their stock/money in play)

I think you fully agree and just posting stuff that fully confirm the first sentence since the beginning but I am not sure.
Directly or indirectly this effects Nvidia negatively. Yes there's lot of other parties involved like AIB's and retailers, but we don't care about those. Everyone involved is responsible for jacking up prices for a quick profit, and thought it would continue indefinitely. Get too greedy and you'll lose everything.
Has for the part that a retailer could not sell a 4090/4080 nvidia card because they have a mountain of 1650, 2060 and 3060 cards that sound false,
That's because you would look at the 3080's and 3090's, not low end cards. Unless Nvidia has done something amazing with their RTX 4000 chips, then people will get what they can afford.
when it is indirectly very much an AMD/Nvidia problem stock of old cards (used or new), but it is a lesser Amd/Nvidia problem that if they owned the said stock.
It doesn't matter. Stock is stock. They have new shit laying around that isn't even for sale yet. Whomever gets stuck with the bill doesn't matter. What matters is that Nvidia RTX 4000 series cards are going to have a hard time selling at MSRP. The rumor now is that Nvidia is delaying the release to try and clear inventory.
 

jfreund

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Through the latest mining craze, it was supposedly the AIBs primarily responsible for jacking up prices, then distributors and retailers piled on. AMD and Nvidia were "stuck" selling their chips at already contracted prices. That's one reason Nvidia kept introducing new Ampere products when we couldn't buy the existing ones.

In light of that, it would be funny if Nvidia launched Lovelace without delay and left the gougers holding the bag on excess 3000 inventory.

The quotes in this article sound like they came from a distributor or retailer. I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia has said nothing about delaying and this rumor is an attempt by distributors/retailers to get them to hold off.
 
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Marees

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Through the latest mining craze, it was supposedly the AIBs primarily responsible for jacking up prices, then distributors and retailers piled on. AMD and Nvidia were "stuck" selling their chips at already contacted prices. That's one reason Nvidia kept introducing new Ampere products when we couldn't buy the existing ones.

In light of that, it would be funny if Nvidia launched Lovelace without delay and left the gougers holding the bag on excess 3000 inventory.

The quotes in this article sound like they came from a distributor or retailer. I wouldn't be surprised if Nvidia has said nothing about delaying and this rumor is an attempt by distributors/retailers to get them to hold off.

Ultimately Nvidia has to accommodate their "partners"

AIBs threaten NVIDIA Ada Lovelace GPU allocation: 'go pound sand'
AIB partners are desperate on getting rid of massive inventories of old GPUs before NVIDIA's next-gen Lovelace GPUs in October.

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/8741....it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=tweaktown
 

Lakados

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Ultimately Nvidia has to accommodate their "partners"

AIBs threaten NVIDIA Ada Lovelace GPU allocation: 'go pound sand'
AIB partners are desperate on getting rid of massive inventories of old GPUs before NVIDIA's next-gen Lovelace GPUs in October.

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/8741....it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=tweaktown
That's how I heard it, glad to see somebody else hearing the same thing. Nvidia can't screw themselves on TSMC but they are arrogant enough to try and play hardball with their AIBs.
 

HockeyJon

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*Hobby* miners. Not mining firms. Nvidia in particular didn't do much to hide the fact that they and their partners were selling cards directly to mining firms.

Hobbyists were just as screwed by that as gamers were.

We're also dealing with mining firms selling at least six months' worth of inventory all at once. It's not a 1:1 conversion of mining hardware turning into used stock, so the bubble bursting effect is really amplified.

Except for that time they got fined by the SEC over it.

https://www.pcgamer.com/nvidia-sec-fine-cryptocurrency-mining/
 

DukenukemX

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Ultimately Nvidia has to accommodate their "partners"

AIBs threaten NVIDIA Ada Lovelace GPU allocation: 'go pound sand'
AIB partners are desperate on getting rid of massive inventories of old GPUs before NVIDIA's next-gen Lovelace GPUs in October.

Read more: https://www.tweaktown.com/news/8741....it&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=tweaktown
This is the part that made me do a double take.

"NVIDIA is in a pickle... they have got their AIB partners with warehouses filled with older-gen
Turing, and even Pascal-based GeForce RTX series graphics cards and they have forced NVIDIA's hand into helping them get rid of the older-gen cards before the launch of the next-gen cards in a few months."

What year is this? If they have old cards like these then AIB's are responsible for holding onto inventory. What they want is Nvidia to give them money before these GPU's go on sale. I don't get these companies. Nvidia can just sell Lovelace on their own and make all the money. Why are there warehouses full of Turing and Pascal cards? Sounds like after the previous cyrpto crash they just didn't sell cards. No wonder why mid range GPU's are now high end prices, because these motherfuckers aren't releasing their stock.
 

GoodBoy

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How much inventory are we even talking about? For the longest time these cards sold out within seconds.

It is very likely the AIB's who are holding the inventory. They place orders for chips/dram, nVidia delivers. Up until the mining crash, the AIB's were likely placing large orders. Now they have their last large order of chips, but the cards are not selling at retail nearly as fast since the used card market is flooded.
So now the AIB's ask nVidia if they can delay their next orders (probably already placed and committed to by the AIB's to nVidia, and by nVidia to TSMC). Basically they want nVidia to float the cost for a few months so they don't have to. The AIB's are the ones in the pickle. Depending on their margins, this might be a really tough few months for them financially. A lot of these companies finances are comparable to hand to mouth, relying on this months sale to pay next months chip order (that has already been committed to). They can also just take out some loans to float a few months, but if the old product never sells it will just hurt worse.

A few months delayed release by nVidia (assuming they do it to help out the AIB's) does mean that when they DO release, quantities will be excellent. This is good for us. And if you want to spend less, then consider buying a used card now. Buildzoid does recommend against buying a mined on 3090 (cards running GDDR6X or HBM) since certain cryptos hit the ram very hard, and half the ram on a 3090 isn't well cooled. 1xxx and 2xxx mined on cards are fine. AMD mined on cards with HBM or Radeon VII's also avoid.

This is a normal issue when there is a crypto crash, so it's a rough couple of months then back to normal. nVidia might also allow the AIB's to get price cuts on a portion of the existing unsold 3xxx chips they already paid for, so that the AIB's can start making big price cuts on the older models. Crypto crashes are hardest on the AIB's, so I wouldn't be surprised if nVidia helps them out. This isn't the first time this has happened.

To people complaining about the previously high card prices and blaming it all on the AIB's and/or nVidia, I think you need to open your eyes.

Increased card costs had multiple factors:
Actual cost increases due to supply chain problems (gg covid)
Tarriffs applied to imported good manufactured in China
Insanely increased demand (gg crypto)
Then throw in scalpers getting away with 2x markup, followed by resellers (both online and brick n mortar save for Best Buy for the most part) raising that price themselves to get a part of the scalpers pie. This is part of the response to the crypto demand.

None of the above = greedy AIB screwing you. Whatever amount of increased margins the AIB's were able to get (I don't have that information) certainly isn't 100% responsible for the prices we saw. Shitting on them isn't going to do any good or serve any greater purpose.

The prices will shift downward starting at TSMC -> nVidia -> AIB -> reseller -> Consumer. Give it a few months, stop whining about shit no one can control, and just buy what you can afford.
 

HockeyJon

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DukenukemX

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31jpwtwvdrb91.jpg
 

LukeTbk

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Regulatory fines rarely approach the amount of profit generated by the violations.
Not sure how one would define profit (from Nvidia point of view) made here by the violations made by Nvidia in that example.

In case where profit generated I think they very often exceed that amount by large amount, to discourage them, see JPMorgan over 900 millions fine for manipulating future markets to an estimated 300 millions amount and so on. Or databreach fine versus the profit gained by saving some amount on security (if there was any profit made at all)
 

Varmint

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DukenukemX

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Fortunately insider trading is legal for Congress. Laws are for us plebes.
The sad truth is that by buying Nvidia's stock it tells me two things. One is that the Pelosi's fully expect Nvidia to get a huge chunk out of it and will put it directly into their stock. Second is that it's clear that Pelosi among other politicians are doing insider trading. Nvidia getting this money also means that Nvidia doesn't have to sell their abundance of current and future RTX inventory. We lose because our tax payer money is funding this bullshit, and Nvidia as well as AIB's don't have to lower prices. Why are we funding this? This bill is for chip manufacturing and Nvidia doesn't even want it now with TSMC.
 

Varmint

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Weird thing is NVidia card prices aren't really coming down. They seemed to have mostly bottomed at still at or above MSRP.
 

DukenukemX

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Weird thing is NVidia card prices aren't really coming down. They seemed to have mostly bottomed at still at or above MSRP.
That's to be expected since we haven't seen Bitcoin drop much further than $20k. With everyone convincing people to buy GPU's now, like as if we're about to run out of them, it's no wonder why prices haven't dropped yet. China has yet to release their massive stock of RTX cards into the used market, so when that happens things will get serious. If Nvdia does get some government money then I can see them hoarding GPU's in warehouses before they launch the RTX 4000 cards. There's always Monday.
 
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ChadD

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What most people miss in the current mess... is the idea of well they couldn't keep them in stock and they sold out instantly. SO they obviously didn't have tons of stock.

Retail doesn't work in a way where X or Y retail chain buys 500 cards from Nvidia (or MSI or Asus ect) directly... or even 2,000 cards directly. Retailers buy their cards from middle men, companies like Ingram Micro in North America (who had over 50 billion in revenue last year). Those companies where SELLING directly to a lot of medium to large size Crypto farms, they opened accounts for the Farms and started acting like retailers themselves. Regular people don't buy from places like IM cause they aren't going to be hitting min orders of 100,500,1000 pcs ect. Those crypto farms where ok with that... order 100 at a time at nice Discount YES please. The wholesalers where fine with giving them accounts... cause they where not retailers and in many cases companies like IM where getting away with charging retail prices. (which beats selling to regional computer chains at wholesale).

My point is the retail pain of only a handful of cards coming in at a time had little to do with supply issues. Companies like IM where swimming in cards the entire time... they just did what any business would do. If they got 10,000 cards in and they had 8,000 in retail orders, and 8,000 in mining orders (from mining firms willing to pay close to or even retail.. in cash and not 30 or 90 day payment terms) They shipped 8,000 cards to the mining firms... and 2,000 cards to retail.

Now the issue is simple. As the 3000 matured... Nvidia was able to push more product. So if companies like IM where shorting retail to making money on mining companies... all of a sudden Nvidia was able to send them enough product to do both. The retail product was moving.... however all the Crypto stock they where bringing in is now SITTING. The miners don't want it... and Retail doesn't need 2x the product, and to make it even worse retail demand is down due to an actual depression, and as is normal anticipation of next gen cards.

My point is the problem isn't the Best buys of the world sitting on warehouses of stock... no electronics retailers keep large warehouses of anything. It all ships from wholesalers... who are sitting on a ton of product. (and yes its 100% their fault) Still we are not talking about little companies Nvidia can really piss off. Nvidia doesn't deal with 10,000 retail outlets. They deal with partners who deal with something like 20 distributers world wide that keep relationships with retailers. Those distributers work on STUPID thin margins.... for them sitting on 10s of thousands of cards is a disaster. Again using Ingram Micro as an example last year they had 50 Billion in revenue... and made a profit of 700 million. That is huge money but that margin is razor thin, stiffing them with 10s of millions in dead stock would go poorly for Nvidia.

Of course its even more complicated cause the IMs are really buying stock from card manufacturers... WHO where also selling stock to the biggest of the Farm customers. So the largest farms where getting accounts directly with card manufactures... and the ones that where not quite large enough or couldn't where getting accounts with distributers like IM... and it was the hobby farmers that where stuck hunting retail. If I had to guess... card manufactures are sitting on a ton of stock, cause they where over producing to fill their new Crypto account orders. Distributers are sitting on a ton of cards cause they where also filling Crypto orders direct. Retail is likely fine... very very few retailers keep their own stock, its almost all just in time delivery from distributers like IM.
 
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JasonLD

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Lakados

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The sad truth is that by buying Nvidia's stock it tells me two things. One is that the Pelosi's fully expect Nvidia to get a huge chunk out of it and will put it directly into their stock. Second is that it's clear that Pelosi among other politicians are doing insider trading. Nvidia getting this money also means that Nvidia doesn't have to sell their abundance of current and future RTX inventory. We lose because our tax payer money is funding this bullshit, and Nvidia as well as AIB's don't have to lower prices. Why are we funding this? This bill is for chip manufacturing and Nvidia doesn't even want it now with TSMC.
Yeah congress and “insider” trading has been a long standing problem. But I doubt that the semi conductor bill and Nvidia are directly related. There is probably a large government supercomputer about to be built that is going to need a few hundred million in GPU that Nvidia is going to be awarded the contract to. Suddenly making the huge surplus of gaming GPU’s irrelevant because they will have to allocate an abnormal amount of their silicon to the server contract.
 

DukenukemX

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Those distributers work on STUPID thin margins.... for them sitting on 10s of thousands of cards is a disaster. Again using Ingram Micro as an example last year they had 50 Billion in revenue... and made a profit of 700 million. That is huge money but that margin is razor thin, stiffing them with 10s of millions in dead stock would go poorly for Nvidia.
Don't care, the cards are overpriced beyond what most people can afford. GTX 1060's are still #1 because they are what people could afford. If someone is running on thin margins then it maybe ultimately Nvidia's fault. Then again I read that card manufacturer's have a lot of Turing and Pascal cards then that means they're manipulating prices by hording stock.
 

ChadD

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Don't care, the cards are overpriced beyond what most people can afford. GTX 1060's are still #1 because they are what people could afford. If someone is running on thin margins then it maybe ultimately Nvidia's fault. Then again I read that card manufacturer's have a lot of Turing and Pascal cards then that means they're manipulating prices by hording stock.
IM margin as an example... is 1.5%. They take care of all the warehousing and just in time delivery for the majority of the North American retail electronics market. I would assume from GPU card MFGs they are probably getting product to move along with a 10% or so margin. With margins like that dead stock is a killer.

My only point is ya if companies like them are sitting on thousands of 3000 cards.... the pressure on Nvidia to drag their heals on 4000 is going to be HUGE. Cause frankly. The distribution business is small enough that if 3 or 4 of the biggest players tell Nvidia flat out if you launch the 4000 we will purposely order next to zero. Nvidia really has no choice but to delay. Or get shit from consumers for paper launching. Nvidia can't handle the demand of being the only one shipping retail cards... and Card manufacturers don't have the infrastructure to fill just in time orders for companies like Best Buy. Versions of exactly that have happened on smaller scales before... there have been a few launches where companies have been called paper launchers even though they sold a handful themselves.... if the distribution chain Says na na we are moving this stuff first, that is what will happen one way or another. Even if Nvidia launches the 4000... its possible supply will appear "very very bad" for months as distribution tries to unload 3000s. (That is assuming Nvidia doesn't just agree to offer steep rebates... or even take product back to make the distributers happy)
 

os2wiz

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Not only is there going to be a glut of used cards, but the price of wafers is up substantially and with current inflation numbers for everything the demand for expensive GPUs (and other electronics/commodities) is going to dry up. Buy a new GPU or put gas in the car to go to work. Not a tough decision to make.
The reality is that scalpers and corporate thieves like Nvidia and AMD that sold dirextly to miners creating a man made shirtage in gpus for consumers ahould all be imprisoned, That is what scumbags deserve in this chatty capitalist society. I have no yams in executing the worst offenders, Justice in a communist society is not an abstract question. It is swift and severe for capitalist clowns.of course in an egalitarian communist society money and wage labor will be abolished so that all will be equal. Graphics cards will be available for all. For no cost.
 

reaper12

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They were fined by the SEC for not disclosing the information to investors. The amount of money they made has nothing to do with that.

Do you know what it was actually for? It was a misreporting on their 10-Q forms to the SEC. You think it's some big thing, "misleading investors" but, it's not really. All they had to do was put a line in the 10-Q forms that mentions how volatile the Crypto Market is. That's it, that's the full extent of the terrible crime that they were fined for.

That's why AMD didn't get fined for all the income that they made from mining back then, even though you don't see any mining listed on their Financial reports. Because in their 10-Q forms, they have a line explaining that due to the volatile nature of Crypto Currency, their GPU business could be adversely affected. Nvidia have something like that in their 10-Q reports since 2020.

Which is why some people think that this was just a money grab by the SEC. Knowing that it would cost Nvidia more to challenge the fine than to actually pay it and move on.
 

WilyKit

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The reality is that scalpers and corporate thieves like Nvidia and AMD that sold dirextly to miners creating a man made shirtage in gpus for consumers ahould all be imprisoned, That is what scumbags deserve in this chatty capitalist society. I have no yams in executing the worst offenders, Justice in a communist society is not an abstract question. It is swift and severe for capitalist clowns.of course in an egalitarian communist society money and wage labor will be abolished so that all will be equal. Graphics cards will be available for all. For no cost.
Can you give me an example of this utopian communist country where everyone gets a free 3090Ti?
 

GoldenTiger

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The reality is that scalpers and corporate thieves like Nvidia and AMD that sold dirextly to miners creating a man made shirtage in gpus for consumers ahould all be imprisoned, That is what scumbags deserve in this chatty capitalist society. I have no yams in executing the worst offenders, Justice in a communist society is not an abstract question. It is swift and severe for capitalist clowns.of course in an egalitarian communist society money and wage labor will be abolished so that all will be equal. Graphics cards will be available for all. For no cost.
Oh man where is this utopia? Is it China? Russia? Venezuela? I want to live there and sponge off all the hard work of everyone else too!
 

sfsuphysics

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Oh man where is this utopia? Is it China? Russia? Venezuela? I want to live there and sponge off all the hard work of everyone else too!
As the joke goes, when developing the space program the US spent hundreds of thousands of dollars (government kickbacks to a favorable company I'm sure) developing a pen that writes in zero-gravity... the Soviet Union simply used a pencil...

of course that could be because that was the apex of their technology.
 
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