NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang hints at ‘exciting’ next-generation GPU update on September 20th Tuesday

LukeTbk

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(Opinion)Amd is gonna smoke nvidia this time both in price-power and performance.
Now that we "know" that RDNA 3 will be your regular single chip GPU and not some new generation of chiplet design, is there a reason why either one would smoke the other ? Specially with NVIDIA node advantage ?

What looks like a giant jump in performance and efficacy of the H100 from the A100 (and that going from TSMC 7 to 4 not Samsung 8) does not seem to give the impression that it will be an easy generation to smoke.
 

DukenukemX

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  • I'm broke, but mobile phone gaming has never appealed past 2.5 minutes, mostly because of the controls and size of the screen. I bet my 2018 "smart" phone has a better GPU than my laptop, which is what I'm using right now, until it cools off and I can justify firing up the desktop. It feels weird to have the AC going while I have what amounts to a little space heater going at the same time.
You ain't that broke. I'm talking about people who can barely afford to eat. Those people are broke.
Um, I don't really see that happening. But if I could see what what going to happen, I might've bought a bunch of Domino's Pizza stock.
I do, and it'll be back down to $33 a share like the good old days, before the crypto boom.

  • They have a shit tone of GPU stock
  • Their AIB's are made as hell and Nvidia is gonna take it.
  • About to release their RTX 4000 cards, when they already have a shit tone of RTX 3000 cards.
  • Used market
  • Intel is about to enter the GPU market
  • AMD is also about to release new GPU's.
  • Their server presence is dwindling.
  • Nobody gives a shit about their Geforce Now cloud gaming service.
  • Nobody buys their Tegra products but Nintendo.
How does any of this not look good for Nvidia's stock?

Now that we "know" that RDNA 3 will be your regular single chip GPU and not some new generation of chiplet design, is there a reason why either one would smoke the other ? Specially with NVIDIA node advantage ?
AMD is going to have a major power efficiency advantage, which is a big deal when you consider how much power is needed to power a RTX 3080. It's not like back in the day when the Vega and 390 GPU's from AMD used more power. These GPU's will spike a PSU real hard, to the point where it gets unstable and can break the GPU or PSU. AMD's RDNA2 is a lot better at this, but still draws a lot of power.

 
Joined
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You ain't that broke. I'm talking about people who can barely afford to eat. Those people are broke.

I do, and it'll be back down to $33 a share like the good old days, before the crypto boom.

  • They have a shit tone of GPU stock
  • Their AIB's are made as hell and Nvidia is gonna take it.
  • About to release their RTX 4000 cards, when they already have a shit tone of RTX 3000 cards.
  • Used market
  • Intel is about to enter the GPU market
  • AMD is also about to release new GPU's.
  • Their server presence is dwindling.
  • Nobody gives a shit about their Geforce Now cloud gaming service.
  • Nobody buys their Tegra products but Nintendo.
How does any of this not look good for Nvidia's stock?


AMD is going to have a major power efficiency advantage, which is a big deal when you consider how much power is needed to power a RTX 3080. It's not like back in the day when the Vega and 390 GPU's from AMD used more power. These GPU's will spike a PSU real hard, to the point where it gets unstable and can break the GPU or PSU. AMD's RDNA2 is a lot better at this, but still draws a lot of power.


Wow, sounds like you should short the stock if you're that sure it's going back to sub $50.
 

staknhalo

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Wow, sounds like you should short the stock if you're that sure it's going back to sub $50.

quite literally 'put your money where your mouth is'? an interesting proposal..... you could (edit: will!) make a lot of money......... why wouldn't one then? 🤔
 
Joined
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quite literally 'put your money where your mouth is'? an interesting proposal..... you could make a lot of money......... why wouldn't you then? 🤔
Probably more fun to make outlandish statements and if you're wrong the only people that get hurt are those that took your advice.
 

duronboy

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il_fullxfull.3715639942_dqnp.jpg
 

duronboy

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AMD is going to have a major power efficiency advantage, which is a big deal when you consider how much power is needed to power a RTX 3080. It's not like back in the day when the Vega and 390 GPU's from AMD used more power. These GPU's will spike a PSU real hard, to the point where it gets unstable and can break the GPU or PSU. AMD's RDNA2 is a lot better at this, but still draws a lot of power.


Are they gunna bring back huge capacitors like people used to have on their car stereos?
 

XenIneX

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Lets talk about their stock, because it looks like a crypto roller coaster. Remember there was a crypto boom in 2016 which then ended in 2018 with a crash. They went from $67 a share to $33 right after the crypto crash of 2018. Luckily for Nvidia the pandemic soon started and with people stuck at home and crypto exploding, their stock was worth $315. It's currently worth $162 and this isn't even their final stock market form. Their stock will crash so hard that they'll be begging to suck gamer dick. It'll crash harder than BBBY did for the idiots at Wallstreetbets.

Yes, Nvidia's stock slump in October `18 must have been due to the crypto crash which happened most of a year earlier, and not the release of an overpriced, underperforming lineup of GPUs just days beforehand.

Also, once again for those in the cheap seats: Nvidia doesn't sell to crypto miners. (Ignoring the CMP line. Which everyone did -- including the miners.) They sell to AIBs. (...Some of whom may sell to miners. No accounting for taste.) Nvidia doesn't know whether any given card is mining crypto or doing computation fluid dynamics simulations. It just happens that, much like AMD 5-6 years ago, Nvidia made a card line that happened to be really good at doing crypto-ish computations.


Ah. A tech speculation channel so reputable they have to turn to key-flippers for their sponsorships. This explains the stock market takes...

Anyone reading anything into quarter-to-quarter stock market changes isn't worth the time of day. Same for anyone forecasting based on year-over-year shifts over the course of the pandemic and ensuing financial fun-times. The numbers are fucked, and will continue to be until everything shakes out. Sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride.

  • They have a shit tone of GPU stock
  • Their AIB's are made as hell and Nvidia is gonna take it.
  • About to release their RTX 4000 cards, when they already have a shit tone of RTX 3000 cards.

Not a problem. They'll strategically time the next gen release and discount old stock to burn off inventory. And if the excess is particularly egregious, they'll bin them down to lower-tier parts in the new lineup, as they have many times before. It'll be "2060KO two, electric boogaloo".

And wow. Nvidia's never pissed off a partner before. I wonder how they'll survive...

  • Used market

No one cares about the used market. No one has ever cared about the used market. Barely anyone cares about the AIB market. Let me know when Dell is scraping eBay for parts.

  • Intel is about to enter the GPU market

Intel has years until they manage to unfuck themselves enough to be a player in the space. They've already had to push Arc's release back a year -- pissing away their big shot to steal marketshare during the pandemic shortages. And they may well scrap the bulk of it for the next gen to avoid the twinned embarrassment of shit drivers and lackluster performance.

  • AMD is also about to release new GPU's.

Such a thing has never happened before. Truly a novel occurrence. How ever will the market react to this unprecedented event?

  • Their server presence is dwindling.

se-do-go-on-meme-maker-oh-please-do-go-on-52213510.png


  • Nobody gives a shit about their Geforce Now cloud gaming service.

And nobody gives a shit about the change between my couch cushions.

  • Nobody buys their Tegra products but Nintendo.

Tegra has never been substantively successful. The Switch is its only mainstream design win.

How does any of this not look good for Nvidia's stock?

GPU-Manu-Stocks.gif


Same profile. Same features, on the same timeline. It's almost like the trajectory of Nvidia's stock is mostly just following the industry's.

AMD is going to have a major power efficiency advantage, which is a big deal when you consider how much power is needed to power a RTX 3080. It's not like back in the day when the Vega and 390 GPU's from AMD used more power. These GPU's will spike a PSU real hard, to the point where it gets unstable and can break the GPU or PSU. AMD's RDNA2 is a lot better at this, but still draws a lot of power.


I'll believe AMD's power efficiency when I see it. Much like I believe all "leaked" spec(ulation)s when I see them. Cards don't exist until they exist.
 

DukenukemX

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Yes, Nvidia's stock slump in October `18 must have been due to the crypto crash which happened most of a year earlier, and not the release of an overpriced, underperforming lineup of GPUs just days beforehand.
Don't think Nvidia can't screw up in more than one way, cause they definitely can. But yes, the majority of their slump was due to crypto.
Not a problem. They'll strategically time the next gen release and discount old stock to burn off inventory. And if the excess is particularly egregious, they'll bin them down to lower-tier parts in the new lineup, as they have many times before. It'll be "2060KO two, electric boogaloo".
I'm all for it, but that's what Nvidia wants to avoid. If they delay the RTX 4000 cards then AMD will release theirs and take the crown. If they decide to do a paper launch, then AMD can take some market share away. If they do what you say then price of GPU's fall and we consumers win.
No one cares about the used market. No one has ever cared about the used market. Barely anyone cares about the AIB market. Let me know when Dell is scraping eBay for parts.
Keep thinking that while I go on Ebay and buy cheap GPU's. More yummy graphics for me.
298074_bx3A8x.gif

Intel has years until they manage to unfuck themselves enough to be a player in the space. They've already had to push Arc's release back a year -- pissing away their big shot to steal marketshare during the pandemic shortages. And they may well scrap the bulk of it for the next gen to avoid the twinned embarrassment of shit drivers and lackluster performance.
Doesn't matter. The idea here is that Intel breaks up the duopoly that is AMD and Nvidia. That means Nvidia has to actually compete.
Tegra has never been substantively successful. The Switch is its only mainstream design win.
The Switch pales in comparison to Qualcomm and Apple's ARM SoC market.

View attachment 504531

Same profile. Same features, on the same timeline. It's almost like the trajectory of Nvidia's stock is mostly just following the industry's.
Anyone ever tell you that you have impeccable timing? I'm sure it was a coincidence.
nvidia stock drop.png

I'll believe AMD's power efficiency when I see it. Much like I believe all "leaked" spec(ulation)s when I see them. Cards don't exist until they exist.
You see it now. It's safe to assume that RDNA3 will be even more power efficient.
https://www.techspot.com/article/2151-nvidia-ampere-vs-amd-rdna2/
perfwatt.png
 

DukenukemX

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funkydmunky

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People don't buy things based on inflation. The majority of gamers on Steam do not use a RTX 3080, or a 3070, or even a 3060. They're using 1060's, 1650's, 1050 Ti's, and 2060's, in that order. This is because the price gap is too large and the performance difference is too big. When Nvidia released the GTX 970 for $330, it sold like crazy, and that's because the GTX 980 was only 10% faster, plus the GTX 970 can play games at 1080p. Then Nvidia released Turing with Ray-Tracing with no actual performance increase. Then Nvidia released Ampere with a performance increase but prices went to the moon due to crypto. The RTX 3060 has nearly the same performance as the 2060, but also has massive price increase, which these cards would be what the majority of gamers would buy. Right now a RTX 2060 is less than $300 new off Amazon. The RTX 3060 is over $400 new on Amazon. The RTX 3060 Ti which would be a clear upgrade from a RTX 2060, is nearly $500.

It's not hard to see why 6 years later that people with GTX 1060's continue to use them to play today's games when games play just fine. There is no game that demanding that is unplayable on a 1060. Going back to 2016 nobody in 2016 was using a GTX 470 and GTX 480. The top 3 GPU's in 2016 was the GTX 970, 960, and 750 Ti. Clearly Nvidia screwed up if old cheap GPU's from 6 years ago are what gamers are using in 2022. The reason why games in 2022 run just fine on GTX 1060's is because they aren't going to make games that only runs on like 6.4% of peoples hardware, which is the total amount of gamers on Steam using a 3060 Ti, 3070, 3080, and 3090. Those four GPU's have less market share than the GTX 1060 alone. Even if I add all the RTX 2070's and 2080's, with that 6.4% it would still be less than the GTX 1060 + 1650. The overwhelming majority of gamers buy sub $300 GPU's, and the most popular GPU's are even less than $200. So either gamers can no longer afford to buy GPU's, or Nvidia doesn't offer a compelling upgrade with a compelling price. Probably both honestly.

You're completely right. Gamers on PC are the poor dregs who have cobbled a system together or are still working their old system because of lack of $$, OR they are enthusiast PC elitists who have plenty of $$ or priorities a large part of their expendable income towards their hobby.
The beauty of a PC is somewhat no matter if it is out of date you can usually do some form of performance upgrade for a minimal cost. All the while it is a functioning PC for other tasks. Also as far as gaming goes it lets the user back off on the pretties so it can work at a minimal standard. Look at the Steam Deck and how it preforms so well at a minimum speck. Great piece of tech that isn't anywhere near a 1060.
 

Tamlin_WSGF

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You're completely right. Gamers on PC are the poor dregs who have cobbled a system together or are still working their old system because of lack of $$, OR they are enthusiast PC elitists who have plenty of $$ or priorities a large part of their expendable income towards their hobby.
The beauty of a PC is somewhat no matter if it is out of date you can usually do some form of performance upgrade for a minimal cost. All the while it is a functioning PC for other tasks. Also as far as gaming goes it lets the user back off on the pretties so it can work at a minimal standard. Look at the Steam Deck and how it preforms so well at a minimum speck. Great piece of tech that isn't anywhere near a 1060.
I agree with both of you. Most gamers game on whatever they have available and the latest greatest is not within their reach. The key to smooth gaming is to never be severly CPU bottlenecked. Steam Deck and DukenukemX video are prime examples of that. If you avoid CPU bottlenecking, you can stretch a GPU pretty far and still have an enjoyable gaming experience.

Jensen talked about " new advances of RTX reinventing 3D graphics and gaming". I hope thats true, because just moar fps with next series of GPUs from Nvidia and AMD is just boring IMO. If there is nothing new on the table from Nvidia or AMD, I am considering personally to build a Steam Deck console with AM5/Ryzen 7000 and a HoloISO/Steam OS 3 compatible AMD GPU this time around for fun. MOAR fps isn´t as exciting as it used to be. :p
 

GoodBoy

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... Just last season I got a 6900xt which was about 8% slower than a 3090 and was $1000 less. ...
You got it for $500? I got a new 3090 for $1349.99 thanks to a 10% off best buy coupon. But will assume you mean both prices you are referring to a non-scalper retail pricing. If you are comparing scalper to non-scalper price, then your comparison isn't valid. March 2022 the 6900xt had come DOWN to $1299.

AMD themselves were scalping their customers... meanwhile the nVidia 3090 retail price for a 3090 stayed at $1499 throughout the shortages. Still not seeing a $1000 difference, no matter how you slice it. AIB 3090's are down to $1249. nVidia 3090's are Out Of Stock. 6900xt msrp was $999, that is $500 below a 3090 msrp. It's now dropped to $699 and they can't get rid of them. You would expect if it was so good, people would be beating down the doors to snap those up... the nVidia 3090's are gone, AIB's are already having 3xxx sales that are selling out (see EVGA a week or 2 ago). And those stock sellouts are probably still at higher prices than the 6900xt's $699....

What does all of that tell you?? lol
 

lopoetve

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Messages
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  • Their server presence is dwindling.
Server market > Gaming market now :-/ - Source: https://www.nextplatform.com/2022/05/26/datacenter-becomes-nvidias-largest-business/
You're also forgetting the Grace CPU design, the mellanox switching and networking platforms (still the only real IB vendor out there for enterprise), and their car investments. While the automotive side is separate, the switching and DC GPU (and CPU) side are rolled together in a lot of their financial statements - that sector is booming right now, especially on the hyper-scalar side (where they really don't have any competition - AMD's offerings in that space have notable weaknesses (H.264 encoding via NVENC for VDI, and Cuda is still the baseline for vector processing and AI/ML work at small to medium scale), and Intel doesn't have an entry yet). "Rent a GPU" is a popular business - especially since you don't get tied to GRID licensing, which also makes their DC space effectively SaaS-like in terms of revenue (repeating and reliable). Lots of folks getting out of the own-datacenter space right now (again).

How does any of this not look good for Nvidia's stock?
It's definitely NOT going to be anywhere near the $300+ it was - that's for damned sure - any time soon, but the core business is still highly profitable and not suffering from the same downturn as the gaming side. Even with a reduction there, I don't see it dropping to $33 - not with an EBITDA like they currently have (and the free cash flow means they can eat a lot of the stock and handle discounts if they have to). All depends on the multiplier you think it's worth over the baseline, but it's not dropping to that level. Too much upside there in the medium-long term. Gaming is cyclical - the revenue will return, and at current growth rates, the server side can prop up the core pretty well right now (82% growth last year and into this latest quarter).

I'm betting we see stabilization around $100. That's about a 40% drop in market cap from where it was at FY, and seems about right for the gaming segment taking a beating hard.

*note - I am not a financial analyst, just trained around it and somewhat rusty.
 

lopoetve

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People don't buy things based on inflation.
Especially with income not increasing with inflation, and the dual hits of the 2008 financial crisis and COVID.
The majority of gamers on Steam do not use a RTX 3080, or a 3070, or even a 3060. They're using 1060's, 1650's, 1050 Ti's, and 2060's, in that order. This is because the price gap is too large and the performance difference is too big. When Nvidia released the GTX 970 for $330, it sold like crazy, and that's because the GTX 980 was only 10% faster, plus the GTX 970 can play games at 1080p. Then Nvidia released Turing with Ray-Tracing with no actual performance increase. Then Nvidia released Ampere with a performance increase but prices went to the moon due to crypto. The RTX 3060 has nearly the same performance as the 2060, but also has massive price increase, which these cards would be what the majority of gamers would buy. Right now a RTX 2060 is less than $300 new off Amazon. The RTX 3060 is over $400 new on Amazon. The RTX 3060 Ti which would be a clear upgrade from a RTX 2060, is nearly $500.
Yep. There is no midrange anymore - which is screwy as hell. And sucks majorly.
It's not hard to see why 6 years later that people with GTX 1060's continue to use them to play today's games when games play just fine. There is no game that demanding that is unplayable on a 1060. Going back to 2016 nobody in 2016 was using a GTX 470 and GTX 480. The top 3 GPU's in 2016 was the GTX 970, 960, and 750 Ti. Clearly Nvidia screwed up if old cheap GPU's from 6 years ago are what gamers are using in 2022. The reason why games in 2022 run just fine on GTX 1060's is because they aren't going to make games that only runs on like 6.4% of peoples hardware, which is the total amount of gamers on Steam using a 3060 Ti, 3070, 3080, and 3090. Those four GPU's have less market share than the GTX 1060 alone. Even if I add all the RTX 2070's and 2080's, with that 6.4% it would still be less than the GTX 1060 + 1650. The overwhelming majority of gamers buy sub $300 GPU's, and the most popular GPU's are even less than $200. So either gamers can no longer afford to buy GPU's, or Nvidia doesn't offer a compelling upgrade with a compelling price. Probably both honestly.

Totally agree. The 1060 I passed on to someone is still in use today - and still treating them quite well at higher-FPS 1080 (they play older games). I just picked up an RX480 for another project and as a 1080P card. It'll do the job just fine, and that also came out in 2016. 6 year old card, and it's FINE.
 

duronboy

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It'll do the job just fine, and that also came out in 2016.
I'm hoping that, aside from the cards that require a larger PSU, we can also have a card that could put some of these ancient 150W+ cards to bed. Like a GT 4010 that sips 36-55W and beats a GTX 970 or something like that.
 

tangoseal

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You got it for $500? I got a new 3090 for $1349.99 thanks to a 10% off best buy coupon. But will assume you mean both prices you are referring to a non-scalper retail pricing. If you are comparing scalper to non-scalper price, then your comparison isn't valid. March 2022 the 6900xt had come DOWN to $1299.

AMD themselves were scalping their customers... meanwhile the nVidia 3090 retail price for a 3090 stayed at $1499 throughout the shortages. Still not seeing a $1000 difference, no matter how you slice it. AIB 3090's are down to $1249. nVidia 3090's are Out Of Stock. 6900xt msrp was $999, that is $500 below a 3090 msrp. It's now dropped to $699 and they can't get rid of them. You would expect if it was so good, people would be beating down the doors to snap those up... the nVidia 3090's are gone, AIB's are already having 3xxx sales that are selling out (see EVGA a week or 2 ago). And those stock sellouts are probably still at higher prices than the 6900xt's $699....

What does all of that tell you?? lol
I dont keep up with all this shit man.

I went to Microcenter and camped outside for 2 weekend Saturday nights or whatever it was. Got a 6900xt for msrp. The 3090 at microcenter retail was $2000 so yeah almost a 1000 off


No one scalped me. A retailer maybe. Microcenter is far more legit than you probably know. Yes 1000 more for the 3090 when I got my AMD.
 

staknhalo

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How does it go? A bird in hand is worth more than...;)

Unfortunately well aware - sold my 2070super in Aug 2020 before PC Apocalypse thinking I could get more for it then and "iLl JuSt GeT a 3o7o WhEn ThEy CoMe OuT" - refused to pay above MSRP through it all - was finally able to get this 3060ti just this past April 🙃🔫

I'm never selling a GPU without having the new one already again, money I lose selling be damned
 

funkydmunky

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I'm hoping that, aside from the cards that require a larger PSU, we can also have a card that could put some of these ancient 150W+ cards to bed. Like a GT 4010 that sips 36-55W and beats a GTX 970 or something like that.
An RX 6400XT is only %19 shy, but I hear what you are saying. Seems like the low end is abandoned as we should have very capable full DX12 cards that sip power.
 

duronboy

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Well it's almost 30% shy of meeting the 970. Then again I can't find a 6400 XT to compare. I'm probably fantasizing about an 8GB 1060 with a 30W TGP.
 

Legendary Gamer

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You got it for $500? I got a new 3090 for $1349.99 thanks to a 10% off best buy coupon. But will assume you mean both prices you are referring to a non-scalper retail pricing. If you are comparing scalper to non-scalper price, then your comparison isn't valid. March 2022 the 6900xt had come DOWN to $1299.

AMD themselves were scalping their customers... meanwhile the nVidia 3090 retail price for a 3090 stayed at $1499 throughout the shortages. Still not seeing a $1000 difference, no matter how you slice it. AIB 3090's are down to $1249. nVidia 3090's are Out Of Stock. 6900xt msrp was $999, that is $500 below a 3090 msrp. It's now dropped to $699 and they can't get rid of them. You would expect if it was so good, people would be beating down the doors to snap those up... the nVidia 3090's are gone, AIB's are already having 3xxx sales that are selling out (see EVGA a week or 2 ago). And those stock sellouts are probably still at higher prices than the 6900xt's $699....

What does all of that tell you?? lol
Everyone was screwing everyone during the "shortage", which we are supposedly still in the midst of. I think supply finally caught up with demand and exceeded it. Now there's a glut that is forcing prices down.

I don't recall Nvidia cards being down to what you paid during the shortage, supply chain crisis and pandemic. Most of us couldn't get video cards because we refused to pay double MSRP.

I waited until prices hit MSRP... I really doubted the price of my exact 6900XT would end up at 700 bucks... If it falls any lower I might have to buy another one.
 

GoodBoy

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I went to Microcenter and camped outside for 2 weekend Saturday nights or whatever it was. Got a 6900xt for msrp. The 3090 at microcenter retail was $2000 so yeah almost a 1000 off

No one scalped me.
That 3090 wasn't an Nvidia branded one then. AIB's that are made in china had a 25% tariff added. This is most of them and those that are not made in china of course sell out first because they are cheaper.

You had perfect timing on your purchase.

The AIB 3xxx cards had tariff jacking up the prices by $300 to $400, and the same old 3 fan heatsink design that puts all of the heat inside the case. Pass. The nVidia heatsink exhausts half or more of the heat out the back of the case, it's really a superior design. My 3 cards prior were all EVGA.
 

gvx64

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That enamel color reminds me of something you find on the backside of a 1950's refrigerator. Hopefully that is just conceptual and OEMs ship with black as the default color. I can't see that color playing nice in enthusiast gaming rigs with transparent side panels and LEDs, which is probably 90%+ of the target audience for a card like this especially now with what happened to crypto mining.
 

LZ_Xray

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That enamel color reminds me of something you find on the backside of a 1950's refrigerator. Hopefully that is just conceptual and OEMs ship with black as the default color. I can't see that color playing nice in enthusiast gaming rigs with transparent side panels and LEDs, which is probably 90%+ of the target audience for a card like this especially now with what happened to crypto mining.
But it will be spot on in my cardboard case!
 

Iratus

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Southern Hemisphere summer, no thanks. Literally had to upgrade the hvac for my 3090 / TR
 
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