Intel misses Q4 badly, Q1 guidance is abysmal

Centauri

Centauri

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  • Q1 '23 Gross Margin forcast at 39% - expectations were for over 45%
  • Q1 '23 guidance for $11bn~ - expectations $14bn. Will mark Intel's lowest quarter of revenue in a decade.
  • DataCenter/AI down 33% YoY - $6.4bn to $4.3bn
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inte...ations-q1-guidance-disappoints-210626026.html

AMD's earnings are coming soon. I'm very curious to see how much of Intel's DC/AI decline was market contraction and how much was siphoned off by AMD.

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Mega6

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Look for AMD to take datacenter share from INTC but to loose desktop share. Overall its rather obvious tech sales are down overall. Clients have been reducing/renegotiating TSMC orders lower.
 
Centauri

Centauri

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Intel's problems are much larger than a recession. An as-yet-official recession does not wipe our one decade of revenue growth in 12 months.

AMD may miss, so may Nvidia, but not to these extents.
 
staknhalo

staknhalo

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techie81 said:
Agreed, it's a good buy if you are willing to hold for a while.
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Yeah I've said in the finance thread in gen may, I'm only putting money in betting on their fabs, part I hope they do good - for people like Nvidia - and part just invest in some American semi manufacturing

I'm not expecting gains for a long while (and assuming it all goes to plan LOL) - so just scoop up when cheap now and collect dividends
 
Centauri

Centauri

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staknhalo said:
Good. Wanted to pick up more stock @ under $30
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Why was INTC not attractive to you at $25 in the fall when the news was nowhere near as bad? But now it is attractive at $28-30 when the guidance is abysmal?
 
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Mega6

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[Spectre] said:
AMD is the only company I have ever seen in tech who consistently lost money (net), marketshare, and revenue but somehow stayed in business. Honestly, I am kind of impressed.
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Doesn't take much to be better than Intel for the past 6 years now does it? If it wasn't for AMD, we all would be still on Intel quad cores.
 
staknhalo

staknhalo

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Mega6 said:
Doesn't take much to be better than Intel for the past 6 years now does it? If it wasn't for AMD, we all would be still on Intel quad cores.
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I dunno if I'd count Zen 1 or 1+ being better than Intel - let's say 4/3 years IMO
 
staknhalo

staknhalo

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[Spectre] said:
The point is.....AMD is the only tech company I know who could consistently lose.money year after year and still stay in business. If you are going to suck you need to examine what they did to stay in business.
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They sold off their fabs, no way Intel is doing that anytime soon (if ever)
 
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gvx64

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I know that there is way more to these numbers than just the consumer desktop market along with a ton of factors that are completely out of Intel's control. Nonetheless, it just doesn't seem fair for history to shackle the 12th and 13th gen with such poor financial results when Intel appears to have been doing exceptionally well during the 10th and 11th gens, which were pretty underwhelming generations, comparatively speaking.
 
staknhalo

staknhalo

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[Spectre] said:
Those were not cutting edge fabs that went to Global
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That's why they went to GloFo :p

But it also was a major thing, they were very very impeded by them, and would have continued to be had they not sold them off, with whatever other moves they made (they wouldn't have made it if they didn't, with the $$$ pit they were)
 
Centauri

Centauri

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People are quick to shit on Hector Ruiz, but the move towards spinning off the fabs happened entirely on his watch.

They were never going to be anything more than dead weight.
 
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Mega6 said:
Doesn't take much to be better than Intel for the past 6 years now does it? If it wasn't for AMD, we all would be still on Intel quad cores.
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Interesting take, but reality is seldomly that interesting. The reality is we were stuck on quad cores because AMD didn't have shit that could compete with those 4 cores. Had intel pushed their advantage, I doubt AMD would even still be around. Sad, but true. :meh:
 
[Spectre]

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Centauri said:
People are quick to shit on Hector Ruiz, but the move towards spinning off the fabs happened entirely on his watch.

They were never going to be anything more than dead weight.
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Not in housing. If they had spent more time and investment fabbing other people's stuff it would have been printing money the last 12-14 years. That is why TSMC has been successful and why Intel is no going to the sma model.
 
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Mega6

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ZeroBarrier said:
Interesting take, but reality is seldomly that interesting. The reality is we were stuck on quad cores because AMD didn't have shit that could compete with those 4 cores. Had intel pushed their advantage, I doubt AMD would even still be around. Sad, but true. :meh:
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There is more to a market than just high end. There is always room for a low to mid range competitor as long as they can exploit a cost advantage.
 
staknhalo

staknhalo

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ZeroBarrier said:
Interesting take, but reality is seldomly that interesting. The reality is we were stuck on quad cores because AMD didn't have shit that could compete with those 4 cores. Had intel pushed their advantage, I doubt AMD would even still be around. Sad, but true. :meh:
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Yeah, I think it's a bit of both - AMD wasn't competing and because of that Intel also didn't feel the need to compete with itself as much (for comparison, I feel Nvidia has/does compete with itself better - no matter how you feel about them - than Intel did)

Personally, going from single core > dual core > quad core very quickly and then 6 years later my next build ended up being quad core too (Q6600 > 3570k) had me like:

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Mega6

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"the biggest issue for investors is that Intel guided to a 15 cent non-GAAP loss per share, a big decline for a company that a year ago was reporting $1.13 in profit per share. It would be the first loss per share since last summer, which was the first loss for the company in decades."

I knew it was bad but not this bad. The bad side of owning your own fabs, huge investment and now being underutilized.

"Gelsinger is predicting PC sales during the year to be around 270 million to 295 million — a far cry from the "million units-a-day" he predicted in 2021."

LoL

Meanwhile on the AMD side - projected $.66 earnings this quarter. Go figure.
 
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erek

erek

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Centauri said:
Intel's problems are much larger than a recession. An as-yet-official recession does not wipe our one decade of revenue growth in 12 months.

AMD may miss, so may Nvidia, but not to these extents.
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Think any will meat or beat instead of miss?
 
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Mega6

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The smart companies have already revised down so they will be the ones to meet or beat.
 
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///AMG

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[Spectre] said:
Not in housing. If they had spent more time and investment fabbing other people's stuff it would have been printing money the last 12-14 years. That is why TSMC has been successful and why Intel is no going to the sma model.
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Global Foundries isnt doing so well. TSMC is successful in part because labor is a lot cheaper, and they do not compete with their customers. I just cannot see companies in the same space as intel willingly paying their competitor money now to grow and compete against them. Also don't think intel can beat samsung or TSMC on price.

Also on that note Apple paying Samsung to make stuff and samsung using that money and knowledge to create their own phones all while trying to shit on apple on their ads. Big reason why Apple moved away from samsung for a lot of their components.
 
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Mega6

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TSMC is building fabs in Arizona only because of US subsidies. They have already said these chips produced in the US will be more expensive. Mostly due to labor costs. All in the name of supply chain diversification. Not exactly a bad thing since Taiwan is eventually going to be invaded and overrun by china.
 
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Sycraft

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Luke M said:
PC sales fell even more than data center sales, 36%. Wow.
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In part because they went apeshit during the pandemic. It was impossible to buy a computer for a while, created some issues at work for us. Both companies getting them for employees to work from home, and people getting them for entertainment.

Well, that's all over now and it isn't like the systems have gone bad, so demand will be down a lot.

Also home PCs keep lasting longer and longer. I just replaced the core of my PC after 5 years, and then only really because I wanted a new toy, not because I needed it for anything. I used to replace things a lot more often since I love high end gaming, and dabble in audio production. These days though systems are good and just don't want upgrading as often as they used to.
 
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Randall Stephens

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Mega6 said:
Doesn't take much to be better than Intel for the past 6 years now does it? If it wasn't for AMD, we all would be still on Intel quad cores.
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Ain’t that the fucking truth. Wife has a mobile i7 dual core chip…wtf intel die in a fire. AMD ftw.
 
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Randall Stephens said:
Ain’t that the fucking truth. Wife has a mobile i7 dual core chip…wtf intel die in a fire. AMD ftw.
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AMD has proven that when they are in the lead they sit on things just as Intel did, they are no better. It’s why I am cheering for ARM in the consumer market hopefully they can give both AMD and Intel something to fear.

But seriously outside the enthusiasts or professional workspace, any PC capable of using an M.2 for the OS is more than fine for most consumers. Email, Netflix, Facebook, the odd game of Solitaire or Sudoku and mostly Amazon shopping. It’s all they get used for.
 
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Mega6

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I've been transcoding movies from x265 to 264 for a week on a 3930k. :rolleyes:

Don't see AMD sitting on anything. They got caught by Intel big-little core counts on the consumer desktop but we will see 32c/64t zen5 early next year. Meanwhile Intel is still behind Epyc as it's core counts increase.

All of that Datacenter share loss has only two places to go. 1) Native CPU ie Apple M, AWS Graviton or 2) AMD

The Native custom cpu market is still very small compared to AMD's share. Not many companies can afford the resources for their own custom cpus. So yeah, AMD is literally eating intel's lunch on the Datacenter side. Performance, core counts, efficiency and total cost of ownership all go to Epyc.

Fuck the average consumer, they don't even know what a core is. They will buy whatever is in front of them in their favorite color.
 
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Randall Stephens

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Lakados said:
AMD has proven that when they are in the lead they sit on things just as Intel did, they are no better. It’s why I am cheering for ARM in the consumer market hopefully they can give both AMD and Intel something to fear.

But seriously outside the enthusiasts or professional workspace, any PC capable of using an M.2 for the OS is more than fine for most consumers. Email, Netflix, Facebook, the odd game of Solitaire or Sudoku and mostly Amazon shopping. It’s all they get used for.
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You’re right, but I’m old, I’m grumpy, and I want to make sure little punks stay the fuck off my lawn. It’s not American to not be bitching about a company. Not sure how you Canucks can be so nice
 
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