Ford Mustang Mach E Leak: Mustang goes Electric

[sfsuphysics]

And only 70% of people live in a single family home. So 44% of Americans have a garage or “car port”. What percentage can house all their vehicles? What percentage has their houses actually wired to charge these cars? Mine isn’t nor the vast majority of my city.

Nevermind my town already blows transformers more than it should.

There’s a whole conversation about electric cars we ignore.

It's not something we ignore, it's something that constantly gets brought up time and again. But one thing that really doesn't get talked about a lot? The comparison with early ICE cars, like how did they fuel up being gas stations existed (yeah cars came before the gas station), and how if you made a longer trip you needed to carry canisters of gas because your ability to find gas could be an issue in of itself, and how gas was actually hard to come by prior to the big Texas oil discovery... bottom line is cities adapted, just as I'm sure they'll adapt if EV adoption continues to grow.

 

[Dayaks]

It's not something we ignore, it's something that constantly gets brought up time and again. But one thing that really doesn't get talked about a lot? The comparison with early ICE cars, like how did they fuel up being gas stations existed (yeah cars came before the gas station), and how if you made a longer trip you needed to carry canisters of gas because your ability to find gas could be an issue in of itself, and how gas was actually hard to come by prior to the big Texas oil discovery... bottom line is cities adapted, just as I'm sure they'll adapt if EV adoption continues to grow.

Ok, that only sounds good on the surface. There was also an obvious ROI on the initial ICE. EVs lack a solid ROI when you start digging into it.

 

[Aurelius]

And only 70% of people live in a single family home. So 44% of Americans have a garage or “car port”. What percentage can house all their vehicles? What percentage has their houses actually wired to charge these cars? Mine isn’t nor the vast majority of my city.

Nevermind my town already blows transformers more than it should.

There’s a whole conversation about electric cars we ignore.

That is a concern, and we do need to address both power capacity and availability at apartments or certain homes.

The key, though, is that we shouldn't pause EV development or purchasing just because those issues have yet to be solved. Think of it like education: you don't give up on becoming a doctor just because you got a C in one biology class during high school. You keep moving forward and address your shortcomings when you can. Many people can't buy EVs right now, but that shouldn't stop us from encouraging EV purchasing whenever it's reasonable... and it increasingly is.

 

[computergeek485]

It's not something that's ignored, people are getting 220 outlets installed at their property lines to charge while street parked. There are solutions to those without garages. Not that you'll actually watch this but in terms of the grid handling it, it needs to grow but not at the insane rate people may think.

 

[1_rick]

Truth of the matter is any modern ICE can hit 200k easy

I had a '95 Escort make it to 250K, and the only reason it died was the transmission had a slow leak and I forgot to keep up with it. I'm sure it could've easily gone to 350K otherwise, and I didn't even take all that great care of it (10K oil changes, for example). It's not hard, it just needs minimal effort.

 

[NightReaver]

That is a concern, and we do need to address both power capacity and availability at apartments or certain homes.

The key, though, is that we shouldn't pause EV development or purchasing just because those issues have yet to be solved. Think of it like education: you don't give up on becoming a doctor just because you got a C in one biology class during high school. You keep moving forward and address your shortcomings when you can. Many people can't buy EVs right now, but that shouldn't stop us from encouraging EV purchasing whenever it's reasonable... and it increasingly is.

There's moving forward, then there's government meddling shoving it down our throats before it's ready.

 

[pendragon1]

It's not something that's ignored, people are getting 220 outlets installed at their property lines to charge while street parked. There are solutions to those without garages. Not that you'll actually watch this but in terms of the grid handling it, it needs to grow but not at the insane rate people may think.

who are you talking to that you assume they wont what that video, or havent already?! it needs to grow, fast, if they really want a replacement of ice by 2030. and his final comparison with norway to the usa is silly, its a fraction of the size and pop.

 

[computergeek485]

There's moving forward, then there's government meddling shoving it down our throats before it's ready.

Like the 20.5 billion in oil subsidies the US provides annually. That would provide 2.6 million tax rebates at 7500 a pop for EVs.

 

[Dayaks]

It's not something that's ignored, people are getting 220 outlets installed at their property lines to charge while street parked. There are solutions to those without garages. Not that you'll actually watch this but in terms of the grid handling it, it needs to grow but not at the insane rate people may think.

That video is flawed in so many ways. Like I said earlier, they’d have to rewire my entire town. The grid 100% cannot handle 100% EV. The average household electricity use is half a Tesla’s battery or less. And that’s a Sedan and families have multiple vehicles.

 

[pendragon1]

Like the 20.5 billion in oil subsidies the US provides annually. That would provide 2.6 million tax rebates at 7500 a pop for EVs.

yeah, to keep production in the country.

 

[computergeek485]

That video is flawed in so many ways. Like I said earlier, they’d have to rewire my entire town. The grid 100% cannot handle 100% EV.

In its current state no. And he never said that it would be able to in its current state. It does need growth. Just not the insane growth that everyone is claiming.

 

[pendragon1]

In its current state no. And he never said that it would be able to in its current state. It does need growth. Just not the insane growth that everyone is claiming.

rewiring an entire town for this is a little insane

 

[Dayaks]

In its current state no. And he never said that it would be able to in its current state. It does need growth. Just not the insane growth that everyone is claiming.

What’s the cost vs the benefit? Personal transportation is only 16% of our energy usage. Versus hybrids which almost double our efficiency, I don’t believe the cost benefit is remotely close to doing. Say we go hybrids and that drops to 10%, what would revamping our entire grid, mining vast amounts of lithium, fields of chargers, save? 1%?

For 100% green energy I calculated the equivalent of 800 hoover dams of energy capacity in order to manage the dips.

These things may make sense in small doses but we have to actually think about the effects as well.

 

[Aurelius]

There's moving forward, then there's government meddling shoving it down our throats before it's ready.

How is this meddling, exactly? Governments are not forcing you to buy EVs any time soon; many cutoffs for new ICE sales aren't until 2035 or later; EV tech is currently more expensive than ICE, so incentives can play a useful role in helping take EVs mainstream. If anything, the issue is that governments don't spend enough on power and charging infrastructures.

And like computergeek485 says, right now the government is shoving ICE vehicles down your throat with massive oil subsidies. Doesn't matter that it's meant to keep oil production domestic; it's still a reason why gas at the pump isn't absurdly expensive. If you want to cling to an Ayn Randian fantasy of a truly neutral market with zero subsidies or incentives, then you have to call for the immediate end to all oil subsidies and let petroleum companies (if not the broader economy) collapse. Otherwise... let's give electric vehicle makers a break.

 

[computergeek485]

rewiring an entire town for this is a little insane

And it's that mentality we have to blame for the crumbling infrastructure in the US and the shocking lack of availability of high speed internet among other things.

If you think energy needs are just going to stay static I have a bridge to sell you. Especially as more and more people work remote.

 

[pendragon1]

How is this meddling, exactly? Governments are not forcing you to buy EVs any time soon; many cutoffs for new ICE sales aren't until 2035 or later; EV tech is currently more expensive than ICE, so incentives can play a useful role in helping take EVs mainstream. If anything, the issue is that governments don't spend enough on power and charging infrastructures.

And like computergeek485 says, right now the government is shoving ICE vehicles down your throat with massive oil subsidies. Doesn't matter that it's meant to keep oil production domestic; it's still a reason why gas at the pump isn't absurdly expensive. If you want to cling to an Ayn Randian fantasy of a truly neutral market with zero subsidies or incentives, then you have to call for the immediate end to all oil subsidies and let those companies (if not the broader economy) collapse. Otherwise... let's give electric vehicle makers a break.

shutting down pipelines is one way they meddle...

 

[pendragon1]

And it's that mentality we have to blame for the crumbling infrastructure in the US and the shocking lack of availability of high speed internet among other things.

If you think energy needs are just going to stay static I have a bridge to sell you. Especially as more and more people work remote.

your/their mentality is what is wrong with this push, you cant face the reality of what is being forced.

 

[Vegas P11]

shutting down pipelines is one way they meddle...

And what pipeline did they shut down?

 

[pendragon1]

And what pipeline did they shut down?

blocked kxl for one.

 

[sfsuphysics]

Ok, that only sounds good on the surface. There was also an obvious ROI on the initial ICE. EVs lack a solid ROI when you start digging into it.

Of course there was a ROI for the initial ICE vehicles... it provided time savings for literally any movement whether passenger or goods at a local level, very much how the initial steam engines provided a ROI for movement versus wagons. These days though unless you're actively making money with your auto there really isn't any ROI with ICE cars. EVs could possibly be cheaper than ICE cars, but that really is a case by case basis. I don't think EV freight trucks will do anything to give a ROI. But sometimes that ROI isn't obvious, sometimes the act of changing does something unexpected, sometimes people change for reasons other than financial investment.

Versus hybrids which almost double our efficiency,

Double our efficiency in what way? Because hybrids don't come anywhere close to doubling the gas efficiency of cars

 

[whateverer]

Ok, that only sounds good on the surface. There was also an obvious ROI on the initial ICE. EVs lack a solid ROI when you start digging into it.

Sure they do.

1. They cost 1/3 as much per fill-up today (and that cost differential will INCREASE as average gas prices rise)

2. You don't have to drive to the gas station (for those value shoppers out there, there is nothing cheaper than Costco Gas in my area- that's a 40 minutes round trip in traffic (and unless you like waiting an additional 15 minutes, you have to check how busy it is before you ever leave the house!)

For a person who drives max 100 miles a day, the convenience of never wasting 45 to an hour DRIVING to refill my gas tank again VERSUS sitting on my ass at home letting the car handle this for me overnight!

Gas shopping is not as much fun as it used to be, as you have to bring in tensd of thousands daily to afford to cut prices..

 

[NightReaver]

2. You don't have to drive to the gas station (for those value shoppers out there, there is nothing cheaper than Costco Gas in my area- that's a 40 minutes round trip in traffic (and unless you like waiting an additional 15 minutes, you have to check how busy it is before you ever leave the house!)

LMAO, are there people that leave the house just to buy gas? We have a Sam's Club membership and fill up when we go there, or when we pass one. That's when most sane people fill up, when they're already out and about.

 

[Mchart]

LMAO, are there people that leave the house just to buy gas? We have a Sam's Club membership and fill up when we go there, or when we pass one. That's when most sane people fill up, when they're already out and about.

Yeah, again, i'm a bit confused about this 45 minute to a hour drive to get gas thing. Even if you could save 15 cents a gallon to do that, I doubt it's worth the time/money savings. Where are you living where you need to drive 45 minutes for the nearest gas station? Middle of nowhere west Kansas?

Generally, if you're a rancher/farmer and you're that far out in the boonies you'll have a fuel delivery service setup, and you'd never consider something like a Tesla because getting service work done on it would be half-a-day drive minimum to the nearest Tesla service center.

 

[NightReaver]

Even if you could save 15 cents a gallon to do that, I doubt it's worth the time/money savings.

TBF, I have had family obsessed with saving 0.05/gal before. Now they weren't leaving the house specifically for gas (who does that?), but they'd be willing to drive 5 miles out of their way to save a buck. Would have to break the numbers down for them, lol.

It's like when we left Traverse City today. Their Sam's had gas for 0.12/gal cheaper, but it was 20 minutes out of the way. Not worth it to go there instead of something on our way out of town. This is some really basic level stuff here, but apparently that's the market for the EV manufacturers, lol.

 

[Armenius]

Yeah, again, i'm a bit confused about this 45 minute to a hour drive to get gas thing. Even if you could save 15 cents a gallon to do that, I doubt it's worth the time/money savings. Where are you living where you need to drive 45 minutes for the nearest gas station? Middle of nowhere west Kansas?

Generally, if you're a rancher/farmer and you're that far out in the boonies you'll have a fuel delivery service setup, and you'd never consider something like a Tesla because getting service work done on it would be half-a-day drive minimum to the nearest Tesla service center.

3 minutes to the gas station I always fill at, for me. I just stop there the end of every other week on my way home from work to fill up. I'm sure most suburban areas have 2 or 3 gas stations competing with each other practically every other intersection. If I want to pinch pennies BJ's Wholesale is 15 minutes away, Sam's Club is 7-8 minutes.

 

[sfsuphysics]

Yeah, again, i'm a bit confused about this 45 minute to a hour drive to get gas thing. Even if you could save 15 cents a gallon to do that, I doubt it's worth the time/money savings. Where are you living where you need to drive 45 minutes for the nearest gas station? Middle of nowhere west Kansas?

Well we very often have had people saying "I drive over 200 miles a day no way EVs will work for me!" or something like that whenever one of these EV threads pop up, gotta expect something from the other side as well.

 

[kamikazi]

How is this meddling, exactly? Governments are not forcing you to buy EVs any time soon; many cutoffs for new ICE sales aren't until 2035 or later; EV tech is currently more expensive than ICE, so incentives can play a useful role in helping take EVs mainstream. If anything, the issue is that governments don't spend enough on power and charging infrastructures.

And like computergeek485 says, right now the government is shoving ICE vehicles down your throat with massive oil subsidies. Doesn't matter that it's meant to keep oil production domestic; it's still a reason why gas at the pump isn't absurdly expensive. If you want to cling to an Ayn Randian fantasy of a truly neutral market with zero subsidies or incentives, then you have to call for the immediate end to all oil subsidies and let petroleum companies (if not the broader economy) collapse. Otherwise... let's give electric vehicle makers a break.

Except that car companies are accelerating their plans to meet the future requirements. Hyundai recently shut down their engine R&D department. New ICE development is effectively dead.

 

[[21CW]killerofall]

Except that car companies are accelerating their plans to meet the future requirements. Hyundai recently shut down their engine R&D department. New ICE development is effectively dead.

I expect the % of new ICE cars, trucks, and vans sold every year to decrease going further. The only question is how quickly will the % decrease. The ROI for new ICEs (just the engines) are going to be never starting real soon. Why sink millions into something that is only decreasing in volume? The US hit peak horse about 100 years ago. I think we might have just hit peak ICE.

 

[THRESHIN]

rewiring an entire town for this is a little insane

Keeping in mind that I completely agree with you, we've done it before... maybe not on such a large scale but it has been done.

 

[Aurelius]

Except that car companies are accelerating their plans to meet the future requirements. Hyundai recently shut down their engine R&D department. New ICE development is effectively dead.

That's the hilarious bit, though: the people groaning about government 'meddling' don't seem to understand that the free market they worship is moving toward EVs quickly, and in some cases faster than asked. And even if EV subsidies and other incentives vanished overnight... they're not going back. So, one way or the other, folks have to accept that EVs are the future.

 

[Armenius]

That's the hilarious bit, though: the people groaning about government 'meddling' don't seem to understand that the free market they worship is moving toward EVs quickly, and in some cases faster than asked. And even if EV subsidies and other incentives vanished overnight... they're not going back. So, one way or the other, folks have to accept that EVs are the future.

You forget that the automotive industry is a global market. The EU made broad sweeping regulation changes long before the US did.

 

[hmz]

Bunch if issues already with older Teslas... Sooner or later, the battery, the motors, they will go out and then you are on your own. Any expensive electric must be dumped before the warranty expires.

 

[NightReaver]

Lol, the only reason for the market shift is because of meddling. But where's all the new infrastructure to go along with these deadlines? Where's all the new nuclear construction to support the heavy future grid demands? It's not happening. This shift to EVs looks more like a plan to curtail private transportation.

*edit* Anyways, that's as far ot as I go. In the end, this Mach E just looks like the most blatant push towards this new 'superior' future.

 

[computergeek485]

Some back of the napkin math here. This is somewhat unique because of how awful our HVAC system was when we bought the house. 1900 square foot house, built in 1980, largely untouched since then, central FL. AC was dated 1990.

21 days of keeping the house at 75 in September in FL we were averaging 100kwh a day. We were not living in the house yet.

We replaced the HVAC system with a pretty efficient one (20.5SEER) and keep the house at 72 during the day and 70 at night. One year later, same month, living in the house 24/7 (WFH/ stay at home parent) we are averaging 58kwh a day. So by replacing the AC we cut down our grid demand by at least 40%. Beyond that we just replaced an 18 year old resistive electric water heater that used 4,622kwh a year with a hybrid one that uses 866kwh a year.

We still have opportunities to cut back on energy usage too, replace the 15 year old pool pump, replace the ~25 linear feet of sliding doors with double pane ones, same goes for all the windows, bring the attic insulation above r21.

House as we bought it, annual electricity usage (based on 3 fairly hot weeks in FL) of 36,000KWH.
House as we have it, living it in full time, lower temp with efficient appliances, 17,400KWH.
So by that math we have reduced our original gird demand by at least 52% and that's not even apples to apples because we weren't occupying the house for that initial dataset.
Assuming we had not upgraded any appliances based on when we bought the house would leave almost 19,000KWH for an electric vehicle.
Assuming fairly poor efficiency of 37kwh per 100 miles, we could drive our model y 51,351 miles a year charging 100% at home and have a static grid demand to when we bought the house.

TLDR: House as bought used 36,000KWH a year, replaced hvac & Water heater with efficient ones.
House updated uses 17,400KWH a year.
Based on original grid demand we could drive over 50k miles a year charging 100% at home and have no impact on the grid.

Replacing the water heater, energy savings there almost covers 10,000 miles of driving a year charging 100% at home.

 

[Viper16]

Some back of the napkin math here. This is somewhat unique because of how awful our HVAC system was when we bought the house. 1900 square foot house, built in 1980, largely untouched since then, central FL. AC was dated 1990.

21 days of keeping the house at 75 in September in FL we were averaging 100kwh a day. We were not living in the house yet.

We replaced the HVAC system with a pretty efficient one (20.5SEER) and keep the house at 72 during the day and 70 at night. One year later, same month, living in the house 24/7 (WFH/ stay at home parent) we are averaging 58kwh a day. So by replacing the AC we cut down our grid demand by at least 40%. Beyond that we just replaced an 18 year old resistive electric water heater that used 4,622kwh a year with a hybrid one that uses 866kwh a year.

We still have opportunities to cut back on energy usage too, replace the 15 year old pool pump, replace the ~25 linear feet of sliding doors with double pane ones, same goes for all the windows, bring the attic insulation above r21.

House as we bought it, annual electricity usage (based on 3 fairly hot weeks in FL) of 36,000KWH.
House as we have it, living it in full time, lower temp with efficient appliances, 17,400KWH.
So by that math we have reduced our original gird demand by at least 52% and that's not even apples to apples because we weren't occupying the house for that initial dataset.
Assuming we had not upgraded any appliances based on when we bought the house would leave almost 19,000KWH for an electric vehicle.
Assuming fairly poor efficiency of 37kwh per 100 miles, we could drive our model y 51,351 miles a year charging 100% at home and have a static grid demand to when we bought the house.

TLDR: House as bought used 36,000KWH a year, replaced hvac & Water heater with efficient ones.
House updated uses 17,400KWH a year.
Based on original grid demand we could drive over 50k miles a year charging 100% at home and have no impact on the grid.

Replacing the water heater, energy savings there almost covers 10,000 miles of driving a year charging 100% at home.

So what are you net savings in energy reduction versus the cost of replacing all that equipment? If payback is not in less than 5-years it would be very hard for the average consumer to want to afford the upgrade/updates...alot of people live paycheck to paycheck. Very interesting both ways. I sell high efficiency equipment for large commerical buildings and have some experience in running the ROI of equipment purchases. There is alot of fluff in some of the calculations, and of course if we could push the high efficiency stuff that is more dollars in the salesman/owners pockets.

 

[computergeek485]

So what are you net savings in energy reduction versus the cost of replacing all that equipment? If payback is not in less than 5-years it would be very hard for the average consumer to want to afford the upgrade/updates...alot of people live paycheck to paycheck. Very interesting both ways. I sell high efficiency equipment for large commerical buildings and have some experience in running the ROI of equipment purchases. There is alot of fluff in some of the calculations, and of course if we could push the high efficiency stuff that is more dollars in the salesman/owners pockets.

Initial math when we were pricing out systems, we were looking at 4.5-5 years to pay for 100% of the new system with just the savings in electricity month to month. That number went up to about 7 years when we priced out the 14-15 SEER systems. And this was for a 100% new hvac system the only thing original is the ducting. Given our target temps of 72/70 the more efficient one made more sense to us. It also helped that pretty much every company is offering 5 year 0% interest home improvement credit cards for AC system installs.

We were looking at about $450-500 a month with the old ac and living in the house. We currently average about $200-225 a month over the course of a year (lows being 130, highs being 275). AC payment is $225 a month for about 4.5 years.

It was not an expense that we really wanted to stomach, we were given insanely bad advise from our home inspector and realtor. We kinda had the money for it, luckily my wife has gotten numerous promotions and raises since then so it's a complete non issue now but I can definitely understand how this would be an insane expense for some. I never went into the attic to see the air handler. Anyone with 2 eyes would have seen that it was rusted to shit and non repairable. Still bitter about that.

We were also replacing this September 2020 in FL as the supply issues were really coming to a head. I had 15 estimates scheduled, 5 showed up, I got estimates from 3. One wanted to keep the air handler in the attic (super low roof line, impossible to service if it were up there) and the other one was going to leave a lot of the existing lines and not pull permits. So I really only had one choice. We got a "free" UVC air filter, so that probably bumped the total price by 1k. But they were super professional and accommodating, and did a fantastic job so in the end it worked out.


The water heater will take 2 years worst case to pay for the cost difference between the hybrid one and the cheapest 50 gallon electric money can buy. 3-4 years to pay for itself 100%.

 

[Wade88]

blocked kxl for one.

I didn't understand the different oils until I made a friend that is an oil baron engineer lady. I don't remember her actual title but basically KXL was for nasty Canadian tar sands oil that isn't good for anything rednecks like me want.

 

[Mchart]

I didn't understand the different oils until I made a friend that is an oil baron engineer lady. I don't remember her actual title but basically KXL was for nasty Canadian tar sands oil that isn't good for anything rednecks like me want.

Which is used for what most oil is used for, everything else besides fuel. But guess what, they’re still going to get this oil using trains and trucks - which uses fuel.

Shutting a pipeline down makes no sense from an economic and environmental standpoint if you remove the illogical politics.

 

[Jagger100]

It's not something we ignore, it's something that constantly gets brought up time and again. But one thing that really doesn't get talked about a lot? The comparison with early ICE cars, like how did they fuel up being gas stations existed (yeah cars came before the gas station), and how if you made a longer trip you needed to carry canisters of gas because your ability to find gas could be an issue in of itself, and how gas was actually hard to come by prior to the big Texas oil discovery... bottom line is cities adapted, just as I'm sure they'll adapt if EV adoption continues to grow.

They didn't have a comparable alternative to those. So even with the burden of finding a source of gas, it was a net improvement depending on your circumstance.

 

[Mchart]

I don't find the comparison to the horse, ICE, and EV to be very logical. It's more of horse -> ICE/EV/Whatever. An ICE and EV largely give the operator the same speed, ability to travel great distance, etc. That's totally different from the jump from horse -> car.

Shit, EV's were some of the first motorized vehicles to be invented, but of course battery technology back then was complete garbage so it didn't make sense.