Desktop GPU Sales Hit 20-Year Low

[sfsuphysics]

I'm curious how these numbers compare to pre-pandemic sales. They admit there was a "COVID boom" but now there's no longer said COVID restrictions on the world they're some how expecting those same sales to happen?

It's like those nitrile gloves, I used pick them up at Costco for I want to say $10-15 for 3 boxes, great things when painting, staining or hell any work you don't want to get your hands messy, then COVID hit, could barely find them anywhere and they were 2-3x more expensive than they used to be. Now I see them back at Costco by the pallet, and shocker still 2x the previous cost.

 

[cjcox]

Yep, I think the "players" are picking at scapegoats to cover up reality.

 

[Aurelius]

I'm curious how these numbers compare to pre-pandemic sales. They admit there was a "COVID boom" but now there's no longer said COVID restrictions on the world they're some how expecting those same sales to happen?

It's like those nitrile gloves, I used pick them up at Costco for I want to say $10-15 for 3 boxes, great things when painting, staining or hell any work you don't want to get your hands messy, then COVID hit, could barely find them anywhere and they were 2-3x more expensive than they used to be. Now I see them back at Costco by the pallet, and shocker still 2x the previous cost.

Look at it this way: analysts saw the steepest decline ever recorded in PC shipments last quarter, but that still left shipments above pre-pandemic numbers. The issue isn't so much a lack of growth as that it was going to be very difficult to adjust to a return to semi-normal growth. I suspect there's a similar problem for GPU makers compounded by crypto mining.

 

[pillagenburn]

Relatively unfortunate. Doesn’t make sense that all the 4090s sold out

“Jon Peddie Research recalls that declines of GPU sales in the third quarter experienced the most significant drop since the 2009 recession. Yet, for those of us who have been following the discrete desktop GPU marketfor long enough, the situation seems even more dire.”

Source: https://www.tomshardware.com/news/sales-of-desktop-graphics-cards-hit-20-year-low

Makes sense to me; the rich are still rich so they can buy 4090's and others; the poor and middle class have (or are in the process of) being decimated.

 

[sc5mu93]

so we're a full month after the Dec 13 AMD event, and nothing is available at MSRP. how long will this continue? should shipping volume increase, or is this just what we will get?

 

[1_rick]

so we're a full month after the Dec 13 AMD event, and nothing is available at MSRP. how long will this continue? should shipping volume increase, or is this just what we will get?

I see 7900XTs available for $899 at both Best Buy and the local Micro Center.

 

[sc5mu93]

I see 7900XTs available for $899 at both Best Buy and the local Micro Center.

oh - yeah - that has been that way since launch. im talking xtxs

 

[1_rick]

oh - yeah - that has been that way since launch. im talking xtxs

Hah. Well, I'd say "can't find XTX at any price" rather than "...at MSRP", but yeah. (Not that I looked extensively.)

 

[sc5mu93]

Hah. Well, I'd say "can't find XTX at any price" rather than "...at MSRP", but yeah. (Not that I looked extensively.)

there are XTXs on ebay. nowhere near MSRP.

 

[DukenukemX]

there are XTXs on ebay. nowhere near MSRP.

Looking at Amazon the 7900 XTX's are well above MSRP. The cheapest I can find is around $1,239 with most of them being around $1,400. On Ebay it's a different story with most at around $1,150. So yea, they are all scalped but it's interested that Amazon hasn't caught up to Ebay prices. Stuff tends to sell faster on Amazon so that maybe why. It's a little early to say when these scalpers will lose out and need to drop prices. It's still after Christmas and people are returning their gifts or cashing in on their giftcards and cash given to them. Once that's over the scalpers will have to sell at MSRP or bellow.

 

[Lakados]

Funny enough my suppliers have started cutting the prices on the 4080s. Not much but $35 is still $35.
4070TIs are listed as out of stock but $1270 CAD isn't the worst option I have seen... Import fees up here are terrible on tech, so it existing $150 USD over MSRP is about as good as that gets really as the tax difference is nearly $100 of that so border handling, customs, and blah blah blah only tacking on $50 is pretty decent.
None of my guys are bothering with either of the 7900 variants yet it seems.

 

[sfsuphysics]

Look at it this way: analysts saw the steepest decline ever recorded in PC shipments last quarter, but that still left shipments above pre-pandemic numbers.

And that's what I was going for, they can't expect to sustain huge growth in sales due to a "random" worldwide event that absolutely obliterated their previous sales records. In the same way makers/sellers of n95 masks, hand sanitizer, and yeah even toilet paper probably shouldn't expect to see the kinds of sales that they had

 

[GoodBoy]

Aftermath of a Crypto Boom is not really accurately described as "Collapse" imho. It's an expected turn, and the market is still very healthy.

Just another sky is falling/pc gaming is dead post.

The long term sales numbers are just due to the fact that market growth has slowed, and video cards easily last 6 years in usefulness. We are long past the time when every 6 months a new card came out that was twice as fast as the previous card. And these days each new generation's main competition is the previous generation, as the typical gains gen to gen are usually only about 35%. On top of that many games are developed for the least common denominator (i.e current generation of consoles, which are always 2 to 6 years behind pc's), just helps cards have longer longevity.

 

[DukenukemX]

Aftermath of a Crypto Boom is not really accurately described as "Collapse" imho. It's an expected turn, and the market is still very healthy.

Just another sky is falling/pc gaming is dead post.

It certainly has collapsed or I should say collapsing, but of course there are those who do not want that to happen. BitCoin shot up because of a rally. Same reason why the stock markets have been slowly climbing up despite all the bad news. Just because it didn't happen immediately doesn't mean it still isn't happening. Crashing crypto completely takes time.

The long term sales numbers are just due to the fact that market growth has slowed, and video cards easily last 6 years in usefulness. We are long past the time when every 6 months a new card came out that was twice as fast as the previous card. And these days each new generation's main competition is the previous generation, as the typical gains gen to gen are usually only about 35%. On top of that many games are developed for the least common denominator (i.e current generation of consoles, which are always 2 to 6 years behind pc's), just helps cards have longer longevity.

GPU's did get faster, but Nvidia and AMD have pushed them up in terms of market access. Also we've had 6 years of crypto nonsense that inflated GPU prices. In between the crypto nonsense we've had Nvidia trying to push prices up and justifying it with Ray-Tracing that nobody still cares about. RTX 2060 and 3060 should be the most popular GPU's but that's not the case. Those are high end cards now, in terms of pricing.

 

[Lakados]

GPU's did get faster, but Nvidia and AMD have pushed them up in terms of market access. Also we've had 6 years of crypto nonsense that inflated GPU prices. In between the crypto nonsense we've had Nvidia trying to push prices up and justifying it with Ray-Tracing that nobody still cares about. RTX 2060 and 3060 should be the most popular GPU's but that's not the case. Those are high end cards now, in terms of pricing.

If you are disabling ray tracing then the 1660 super will keep you covered for all your 1080p needs, not much out that it can't handle at max or close to and still maintain 60'ish FPS.
They are plentiful, cheap, and creeping up the steam survey charts for a reason.

 

[Flogger23m]

Aftermath of a Crypto Boom is not really accurately described as "Collapse" imho. It's an expected turn, and the market is still very healthy.

Just another sky is falling/pc gaming is dead post.

The long term sales numbers are just due to the fact that market growth has slowed, and video cards easily last 6 years in usefulness. We are long past the time when every 6 months a new card came out that was twice as fast as the previous card. And these days each new generation's main competition is the previous generation, as the typical gains gen to gen are usually only about 35%. On top of that many games are developed for the least common denominator (i.e current generation of consoles, which are always 2 to 6 years behind pc's), just helps cards have longer longevity.

Also GPU generations used to be annual. Now they are around two years.

 

[HumanBias]

It certainly has collapsed or I should say collapsing, but of course there are those who do not want that to happen. BitCoin shot up because of a rally. Same reason why the stock markets have been slowly climbing up despite all the bad news. Just because it didn't happen immediately doesn't mean it still isn't happening. Crashing crypto completely takes time.

GPU's did get faster, but Nvidia and AMD have pushed them up in terms of market access. Also we've had 6 years of crypto nonsense that inflated GPU prices. In between the crypto nonsense we've had Nvidia trying to push prices up and justifying it with Ray-Tracing that nobody still cares about. RTX 2060 and 3060 should be the most popular GPU's but that's not the case. Those are high end cards now, in terms of pricing.

The resent market share numbers says that ray tracing does matter.
Intel and Nvida increased market share (dedicated raytracing units) while AMD lost marketshare.
I propose you are mistaken and part of a small but vocal minority as the sales indicate otherwise.
The "rasterized" world is dying fast, like it or not.

 

[FrgMstr]

The resent market share numbers says that ray tracing does matter.
Intel and Nvida increased market share (dedicated raytracing units) while AMD lost marketshare.
I propose you are mistaken and part of a small but vocal minority as the sales indicate otherwise.
The "rasterized" world is dying fast, like it or not.

LoL

 

[HumanBias]

LoL

You're suggesting that people buy Intel Arc SKU's because of their raster performance?

 

[GoldenTiger]

LoL

Yeeeeah, I'm a big proponent of raytracing and its potential, but to say raster is dying fast is absurd.

 

[hititnquitit]

You're suggesting that people buy Intel Arc SKU's because of their raster performance?

I have yet to hear anyone, ever, say they bought a 770 for it's ray tracing potential.

 

[Red Falcon]

The "rasterized" world is dying fast, like it or not.

Ray tracing is frosting on the cake.
This is like saying cake will no longer be sold in favour of frosting.

Good luck with that.

 

[wandplus]

Well it might be true about mining. I went to nichehash and saw that at 6 pennies per Kw/h, a GTX 1650 would make like 1 penny per day. lol

 

[Ranulfo]

You're suggesting that people buy Intel Arc SKU's because of their raster performance?

I bought one.... for AV1 encoding. Gonna rip my whole dvd/bluray collection with one baby! That or I'm just bored and going crazy at the moment. Who knows?

 

[DukenukemX]

The resent market share numbers says that ray tracing does matter.
Intel and Nvida increased market share (dedicated raytracing units) while AMD lost marketshare.

Intel just released their ARC GPU's and as far as I know they all come with Ray-Tracing. Nvidia has been selling RTX cards for 5 years and on Steam the majority of GPU's are still GTX non-Ray-Tracing based GPU's. AMD lost market share because AMD wants to pretend to be a premium GPU with premium prices when they aren't.

I propose you are mistaken and part of a small but vocal minority as the sales indicate otherwise.

Nobody is against Ray-Tracing, just the price increase that comes with it. The problem is that Ray-Tracing makes up around 50% of the GPU die size, which is a lot of lost rasterization potential there. For a feature that most people couldn't tell if it's on besides the massive FPS drop, it seems to be a waste of silicon. The only games where you notice it is in Quake 2 and Minecraft, and you don't need a Ray-Tracing GPU to enjoy Ray-Tracing in Minecraft. Also Neon Noir Ray Tracing Benchmark where again you don't need a Ray-Tracing capable GPU to use it.

The "rasterized" world is dying fast, like it or not.

You do know that majority of games using Ray-Tracing are still 99% rasterized right?

 

[Marees]

AMD saw its gaming segment slide 7 percent year-over-year to $1.6 billion due to a dip in graphics card sales. The decline could have been even bigger, but was partially offset by AMD's semi-custom product revenue—AMD notably supplies the CPU and GPU hardware in the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S consoles.

Looking past its latest earnings report, AMD expects its first quarter revenue for 2023 to settle at around $5.3 billion, plus or minus $300 million, which would be a decrease of around 10 percent. It also expects further declines in its client and gaming segments, and again anticipates those drops being partially offset by continued growing its data center and embedded divisions.

AMD Posts Record Revenue On EPYC Data Center Momentum Even As PC Market Stalls​

https://hothardware.com/news/amd-record-revenue-epyc-data-center-momentum

 

[cjcox]

IMHO, the industry is starting to realize that "stupid crazy fast" is still fast enough for today. Until "something" creates "something" that makes everyone disappointed about the performance of their existing system in a major way, not sure if I see this correcting itself anytime soon.

Buy new GPU, new GPU needs new CPU (or it's practically worthless), new CPU needs new motherboard, new CPU needs new memory, new combo needs new cooling, new combo needs new case.... etc... etc...

 

[Lakados]

You do know that majority of games using Ray-Tracing are still 99% rasterized right?

I love the few titles I have that are ray traces but until consoles do it at a level comparable to a current 3060 it won’t take off as the norm. The money just isn’t there, to justify the extra work, that may change as Unreal and Unity make some huge breakthroughs in the field, it may cause some AAA studios to reconsider their positions on their in house engines which could speed adoption. But should that happen it will be at the cost of a titles individually as they all just become “an Unreal title” or a “Unity game”, which isn’t necessarily bad but could limit what we see for a while which would be unfortunate.

 

[Decko87]

I love the few titles I have that are ray traces but until consoles do it at a level comparable to a current 3060 it won’t take off as the norm. The money just isn’t there, to justify the extra work, that may change as Unreal and Unity make some huge breakthroughs in the field, it may cause some AAA studios to reconsider their positions on their in house engines which could speed adoption. But should that happen it will be at the cost of a titles individually as they all just become “an Unreal title” or a “Unity game”, which isn’t necessarily bad but could limit what we see for a while which would be unfortunate.

Ray tracing in unity isn't common at the moment, most likely unreal games will make it much easier for devs. I work in unity every day and I haven't touched their ray tracing tools. PS6 and Whatever the hell the next xbox will likely have good ray tracing hardware in like 2028 or whatever.

 

[Marees]

Sales data from MindFactory germany:

For NVIDIA GeForce graphics cards, the ASP figure stood at 426.59€, and total sales at 855,305€, As of Feb 2020.

Fast forward to February 2023, and we see a doubling in the ASPs. for NVIDIA GeForce, the ASP is at 825.20€, with €1.84 million in sales.


AMD Radeon graphics card Feb-2020, ASP stood at 295.25€, with the store having made 442,870€ in sales.
In Feb-2023, this stands at 600.03€, with €1.02 million in sales;
(In 2020, AMD lacked high-end products; this was before the RDNA2 comeback)

https://www.techpowerup.com/305018/...verage-between-2020-and-2023-mindfactory-data

 

[Decko87]

I think they need to hit an all time low, is there anything lower than that? They need to go there. Fuck these companies.

 

[Krenum]

Yeah...$7 for eggs and record high inflation will do that...

 

[LukeTbk]

Yeah...$7 for eggs and record high inflation will do that...

A bit part of that 20 years was not really a competition either:

iGPU, Laptop-phone-tablet vs desktop ratio, GPU-desktop longevity changed quite a bit since 2003.

The record was after the 2018 crypto bust, it would have probably happened or got really close too, regardless of egg prices.

 

[Krenum]

A bit part of that 20 years was not really a competition either:

View attachment 550889

iGPU, Laptop-phone-tablet vs desktop ratio, GPU-desktop longevity changed quite a bit since 2003.

The record was after the 2018 crypto bust, it would have probably happened or got really close too, regardless of egg prices.

Eh, the point being peoples buying habits have changed since were all getting reemed in the ass by inflation. People are weary to spend money on big ticket items. A lot of uncertainty right now.

I hope we have another crash like 2008 though.

 

[LukeTbk]

Eh, the point being peoples buying habits have changed since were all getting reemed in the ass by inflation

Yes and the counter point was the decline in discrete GPU sales of the last 20 years had a really strong downward trajectory.

Even with 0% inflation in the last 3 years, no way 2022 sales would have gone close to 2003-2013 figures.

Look what happened after the previous crypto crash:

Down almost the sames has the previous one, without anything special going on inflation wise.

And the gpu themselves would be one place where it was probably a bit deflationary between 2021 and now.

 

[Krenum]

Yes and the counter point was the decline in discrete GPU sales of the last 20 years had a really strong downward trajectory.

Even with 0% inflation in the last 3 years, no way 2022 sales would have gone close to 2003-2013 figures.

Look what happened after the previous crypto crash:
View attachment 550892

Down almost the sames has the previous one, without anything special going on inflation wise.

And the gpu themselves would be one place where it was probably a bit deflationary between 2021 and now.

Hmm, We need to figure out a way to crash GPU sales even harder. Put your thinking caps on fellas!

I know! Stop paying bullshit prices!