Chip Delivery Time Surpasses 20 Weeks in No Sign Shortage Easing

LFaWolf

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 7, 2016
Messages
1,186
For those that don't have a subscription -

The amount of time it’s taking for chip-starved companies to get orders filled has stretched to more than 20 weeks, indicating the shortages that have held back automakers and computer manufacturers are getting worse.

Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a semiconductor and taking delivery, increased by more than eight days to 20.2 weeks in July from the previous month, according to research by Susquehanna Financial Group. That gap was already the longest wait time since the firm began tracking the data in 2017.

Shortages of microcontrollers, logic chips that control functions in cars , industrial equipment and home electronics, jumped in July, according to the report. Lead times for that type of chip are now 26.5 weeks, compared with a typical range of six to nine weeks. In better news for industries that rely on semiconductors, the lead times were reduced for power management chips, semiconductors that regulate the flow of electricity in everything from smartphones to solar power generation.

Shortages of semiconductors have been felt the most in the automotive industry, which is forecast to lose more than $100 billion in sales of vehicles it can’t make. Other areas have been pinched, too, with many electronics makers, including the biggest companies such as Apple Inc., unable to meet all the demand for their products.

Investors watch lead times looking for clues as to when users of semiconductors are over-ordering and building inventory, usually the herald of a slump in demand. Chip industry executives have cautioned against making that assumption this time, arguing their customers are more willing to make long term supply commitments than in the past.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...surpasses-20-weeks-in-no-sign-shortage-easing
 

cdabc123

2[H]4U
Joined
Jun 21, 2016
Messages
3,686
I would have to imagine process node and chip type has a huge impact on lead time. Makes the article highly speculative and pointless as it doesn't appear to take that into account. They reference apple.... What's the lead time on tsmc for 5nm look like? I would have to imagine significantly longer then 20 weeks and most likely requires making a significant amount of money move to get anywhere near that line. High end chip fabs plan well in advance. The article is near worthless without actual info.
 

LFaWolf

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 7, 2016
Messages
1,186
I would have to imagine process node and chip type has a huge impact on lead time. Makes the article highly speculative and pointless as it doesn't appear to take that into account. They reference apple.... What's the lead time on tsmc for 5nm look like? I would have to imagine significantly longer then 20 weeks and most likely requires making a significant amount of money move to get anywhere near that line. High end chip fabs plan well in advance. The article is near worthless without actual info.

I am not sure what kind of info you are looking for. Are you looking for the lead time for a particular type of chip?
 

cdabc123

2[H]4U
Joined
Jun 21, 2016
Messages
3,686
I am not sure what kind of info you are looking for. Are you looking for the lead time for a particular type of chip?
Sure. There are two bleeding edge manufacturers. That is where every GPU and many cpus are coming from. Give me lead times for a process node at tsmc or Samsung. That would be interesting and would tell a story about a huge industry. (Lead times for some of these process nodes depend on too much to generalize unfortunately). Else, go around and find lead times for less competitive nodes, similar to what can be used in automobiles. That would paint a useful picture of many other industries (and is probably where they pulled this mythical number from).

What they did was give a random number with nothing backing it up. And extrapolate "finance news" stretching to industries that are almost certainly disconnected from the unknown lead time they found (apple for example). Very little actual information is provided and instead the author makes many false assumptions misleading people reading it.
 

LFaWolf

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 7, 2016
Messages
1,186
Sure. There are two bleeding edge manufacturers. That is where every GPU and many cpus are coming from. Give me lead times for a process node at tsmc or Samsung. That would be interesting and would tell a story about a huge industry. (Lead times for some of these process nodes depend on too much to generalize unfortunately). Else, go around and find lead times for less competitive nodes, similar to what can be used in automobiles. That would paint a useful picture of many other industries (and is probably where they pulled this mythical number from).

What they did was give a random number with nothing backing it up. And extrapolate "finance news" stretching to industries that are almost certainly disconnected from the unknown lead time they found (apple for example). Very little actual information is provided and instead the author makes many false assumptions misleading people reading it.

I think most consumers don't really care much about which process node a chip was made in. Frankly, I lost track if Intel is on 10 or 14nm, or AMD is on 7 or 8nm. Does it really matter? I think which type of chip is in shortage is more meaningful, and the article did touch on that in the second paragraph.

Even reading an article from a tech site a few months back and it didn't touch on the process node either.
https://www.extremetech.com/computi...hortage-enters-danger-zone-as-lead-times-rise
 

cdabc123

2[H]4U
Joined
Jun 21, 2016
Messages
3,686
I think most consumers don't really care much about which process node a chip was made in. Frankly, I lost track if Intel is on 10 or 14nm, or AMD is on 7 or 8nm. Does it really matter? I think which type of chip is in shortage is more meaningful, and the article did touch on that in the second paragraph.

Even reading an article from a tech site a few months back and it didn't touch on the process node either.
https://www.extremetech.com/computi...hortage-enters-danger-zone-as-lead-times-rise
So most consumers don't care about what lead time looks like for actual industries and would rather just have the bs "chip lead time goes up" so they can apply it to every industry as a argument?

Node absolutely matters. Especially if you are talking about; cpus, gpus, apples silicon, or anything approaching the cutting edge. You are talking about entirely different business structures to get one of those chips then some of the less dense nodes that can easily be designed and produced. Lead time isn't a real metric for cutting edge nodes.
 
Last edited:

LFaWolf

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Aug 7, 2016
Messages
1,186
one of those chips then some of the less dense nodes that can easily be designed and produced. Lead time isn't a real metric for cutting edge nodes.

Actually not true, as I watched an interview of Pat Gelsinger regarding chip shortage, and he explained that the increased demand for the older chips was not met because the equipment that produced them were already retired, and Intel was not going to invest in older equipment to meet the demand. Which makes sense from a business perspective, because I supposed Intel feels the increase in demand would not be in place going forward.

I still think the article is informative as it gave me some insight into other chips that are in demand, not just for the bleeding edge devices.
 

spaceman

[H]F Junkie
Joined
Jan 7, 2005
Messages
14,866
Can't they make older gpus available? Surely there is some leftover stock.
 

Krenum

Fully [H]
Joined
Apr 29, 2005
Messages
18,637
Sure seems that way. You can actually find stock! Granted prices are still FUBAR.
 

Verge

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
May 27, 2001
Messages
7,138
I would have to imagine process node and chip type has a huge impact on lead time. Makes the article highly speculative and pointless as it doesn't appear to take that into account. They reference apple.... What's the lead time on tsmc for 5nm look like? I would have to imagine significantly longer then 20 weeks and most likely requires making a significant amount of money move to get anywhere near that line. High end chip fabs plan well in advance. The article is near worthless without actual info.
Apple will book their fab capacity probably at least a year in advance with TSMC. I believe the problem is the smaller auxiliary stuff that they use other suppliers for.
 

GoodBoy

2[H]4U
Joined
Nov 29, 2004
Messages
2,195
To put this in perspective, the 'normal' lead time is 12 to 14 weeks.

So it's only an extra 6 to 8 weeks, 1.5 to 2 months. This is the actual 'delay' amount.
 
Top