Bitcoin Discussion Thread

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Chihlidog

[H]ard|Gawd
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Most people will tell you guys that the pools are all pretty similar over the long run, so I dont know how much of a difference your going to see at BTCGuild. That said, Ive switched to a smaller pool and I feel like I am getting noticeably more payout.

EDIT: yes, MtGox is still down. Probably will be for a while. Most people seem to be guessing the weekend. TradeHill is open and people are reporting OK results with them.
 

computerpro3

LightningRod
Joined
Mar 29, 2003
Messages
8,705
I just deposited 7.48 bitcoins to tradehill. Took about 15min for the deposit to show. Took me 10 seconds to sell them, and just told them to transfer $107 to my dwolla account. Hopefully it shows up fast.

So far, mining bitcoins with nothing but existing hardware (2 6950's flashed to 6970) over the last week and a half-ish has completely paid for my third 6970 being delivered today.
 

sethmo

2[H]4U
Joined
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Messages
3,372
I am doing pretty good today on BTCGuild for the past couple of days. I haven't mined BTC in awhile, last pool was Slash's pool and I seem to get a better btc/mhash ratio on BTCGuild.

I really like namecoin mining though, I have a small hoard of namecoins though, and dont want to put all my mhash into namecoins if it is going to keep tanking on the exchange.


We should just get a [H] pool going imo, it'd be limited to the people on this forum.
Small pools are not really efficient in Bitcoin mining anymore, the difficulty is too high. If we could get 8-10ghash into a namecoin pool, I think we could get some decent profits going.
 

wol-va-rine

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I might try BTC Guild, I feel like I'm not getting anything at bitcoin.cz

running just one 5770 is gonna seem like that on any pool, probably worse on the ones that charge a fee, truthfully if you use BTC Guild and don't donate you will get pretty much the max that you'd be getting anywhere, using the mining forecaster I use (which takes difficulty increases into account) you should have 4.71 BTC mined by November at 200MH/s, at that time you will be generating about 0.01 BTC every ten days or so with the predicted difficulty increases...
 

Vediovus

Gawd
Joined
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Messages
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I just deposited 7.48 bitcoins to tradehill. Took about 15min for the deposit to show. Took me 10 seconds to sell them, and just told them to transfer $107 to my dwolla account. Hopefully it shows up fast.

I'm looking to do this myself. Just waiting on the verification deposits from dwolla now, then I'll set up my tradehill account. I'm hoping to make back what I just spent on a 6950. Only need about $100 worth of coins still and I'll be there.
 

Rahburt-33

Gawd
Joined
Mar 17, 2008
Messages
763
Well I moved to BTC Guild, and I think I'm starting to like it more. I chose to donate though, because the money I'm getting from mining is pure profit, as I don't pay for power and I'm not putting money into parts purely for mining.

Edit: wow 4.7 seems low, especially taking so many m onths to get it. I won't even be in the same living conditions at that time
 

Vediovus

Gawd
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Messages
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Yeah I made the mistake of putting money into mining parts after the big rush. I managed to unload all that for a minimal loss. I'm just glad I won't be stuck with 5830s when the bust happens, if it happens.
 

Rahburt-33

Gawd
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Messages
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I suppose I should see if I can work something out with my friend where I can get his 5870. He doesn't mine at all and doesn't want to, so I'll talk to him and see if he wants me to pay for a new graphics card for him, and I just get the old one. I can't do Crossfire or anything like that because my mobo only has one PCI-e x16 slot.
 

Zerosum

Limp Gawd
Joined
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Messages
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BTCGuild found 8 blocks in an hour last last night. :D

Big payday for those that were in it. It completely threw the 24-hour stats off too. (Not that I'm complaining about it) LOL
 

computerpro3

LightningRod
Joined
Mar 29, 2003
Messages
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BTCGuild found 8 blocks in an hour last last night. :D

Big payday for those that were in it. It completely threw the 24-hour stats off too. (Not that I'm complaining about it) LOL

Of course, that's the one time my machines were offline
 

Dallows

Supreme [H]ardness
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I just deposited 7.48 bitcoins to tradehill. Took about 15min for the deposit to show. Took me 10 seconds to sell them, and just told them to transfer $107 to my dwolla account. Hopefully it shows up fast.

So far, mining bitcoins with nothing but existing hardware (2 6950's flashed to 6970) over the last week and a half-ish has completely paid for my third 6970 being delivered today.

What's your Mh/s for those two cards?
 

ekuest

Supreme [H]ardness
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my internet keeps shutting off all the time, at least once a day. i reset the router when i get home, but i am missing out on a ton of mining. .15BTC in the last 24h with a slightly overclocked 5870. super lame.
 

Lorien

Supreme [H]ardness
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Messages
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What's your Mh/s for those two cards?

He should be doing 750-800MH/s with them depending how much he's overclocking them. My pair of overclocked 6970s @950Mhz core are doing 410MH/s each.
 

Vediovus

Gawd
Joined
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Messages
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BTCGuild found 8 blocks in an hour last last night. :D

Big payday for those that were in it. It completely threw the 24-hour stats off too. (Not that I'm complaining about it) LOL

Yeah it made up for the horrible day that was yesterday. At this difficulty level I usually pull 1.2 coins/day, yesterday I was hovering around .8.
 

meme

Limp Gawd
Joined
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Messages
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Bitcoin math!

$1000 to buy a system that makes 1 bitcoin per day.

2 weeks in, you have 14 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .7 bitcoins per day.
4 weeks in, you have 24 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .5 bitcoins per day.
6 weeks in, you have 31 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .35 bitcoins per day.
8 weeks in, you have 36 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .25 bitcoins per day.
10 weeks in, you have 40 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .175 bitcoins per day.
12 weeks in, you have 42.5 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .125 bitcoins per day.
14 weeks in, you have 44.25 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .0875 bitcoins per day.
16 weeks in, you have 45.5 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .0625 bitcoins per day.
18 weeks in, you have 46.375 bitcions, difficulty goes up, now only making .04375 bitcoins per day.

I'll stop here, and point out that the number of bitcoins you will ever create will never go past 50.

Meanwhile, at 10 cents per kilowatt hour, and assuming your system is using 800 watts of power, you're spending a bit under $2 per day for electricity, or about $300 by the time you close enough to your 50 bitcoins that you give up. So, you spent $1300 to buy 50 bitcoins.

You can just buy them for $750, at today's price of $15 per coin. On the other hand, you did acquire some computer hardware, at a cost of about $550. The used hardware will probably make you a bit more than $550 on ebay, after you take into consideration the various taxes and fees you paid buying and selling. So maybe you came out ahead a little bit by mining bitcoins, but you had to go through all the hassle of buying and selling a computer and mining for 5 months.

Now, the price of bitcoins might go up, and it might go down. But whether it goes to $50 or $100 or $1000 a coin, you'd still have done just about as well buying the coins today as you would mining them. The primary benefit to mining is that if bitcoins collapse in price, at least you can still sell your hardware. No such consolation if you had bought the the coins.
 

Chihlidog

[H]ard|Gawd
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Bitcoin math!

$1000 to buy a system that makes 1 bitcoin per day.

2 weeks in, you have 14 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .7 bitcoins per day.
4 weeks in, you have 24 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .5 bitcoins per day.
6 weeks in, you have 31 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .35 bitcoins per day.
8 weeks in, you have 36 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .25 bitcoins per day.
10 weeks in, you have 40 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .175 bitcoins per day.
12 weeks in, you have 42.5 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .125 bitcoins per day.
14 weeks in, you have 44.25 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .0875 bitcoins per day.
16 weeks in, you have 45.5 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .0625 bitcoins per day.
18 weeks in, you have 46.375 bitcions, difficulty goes up, now only making .04375 bitcoins per day.

I'll stop here, and point out that the number of bitcoins you will ever create will never go past 50.

Meanwhile, at 10 cents per kilowatt hour, and assuming your system is using 800 watts of power, you're spending a bit under $2 per day for electricity, or about $300 by the time you close enough to your 50 bitcoins that you give up. So, you spent $1300 to buy 50 bitcoins.

You can just buy them for $750, at today's price of $15 per coin. On the other hand, you did acquire some computer hardware, at a cost of about $550. The used hardware will probably make you a bit more than $550 on ebay, after you take into consideration the various taxes and fees you paid buying and selling. So maybe you came out ahead a little bit by mining bitcoins, but you had to go through all the hassle of buying and selling a computer and mining for 5 months.

Now, the price of bitcoins might go up, and it might go down. But whether it goes to $50 or $100 or $1000 a coin, you'd still have done just about as well buying the coins today as you would mining them. The primary benefit to mining is that if bitcoins collapse in price, at least you can still sell your hardware. No such consolation if you had bought the the coins.

However, for those of us that had an AMD card already, the math is much different. I already had a 5850. I just bought a 5830 to augment my "income" and so far it is paying off nicely. It was a $109 gamble that I should make back easily and profit enough to buy some hardware that I wouldnt otherwise have been able to afford.
 
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Bitcoin math!

$1000 to buy a system that makes 1 bitcoin per day.

2 weeks in, you have 14 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .7 bitcoins per day.
4 weeks in, you have 24 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .5 bitcoins per day.
6 weeks in, you have 31 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .35 bitcoins per day.
8 weeks in, you have 36 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .25 bitcoins per day.
10 weeks in, you have 40 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .175 bitcoins per day.
12 weeks in, you have 42.5 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .125 bitcoins per day.
14 weeks in, you have 44.25 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .0875 bitcoins per day.
16 weeks in, you have 45.5 bitcoins, difficulty goes up, now only making .0625 bitcoins per day.
18 weeks in, you have 46.375 bitcions, difficulty goes up, now only making .04375 bitcoins per day.

Your math is wrong and made up. The difficulty doesn't work like that.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png
 

Yakk

Supreme [H]ardness
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However, for those of us that had an AMD card already, the math is much different. I already had a 5850. I just bought a 5830 to augment my "income" and so far it is paying off nicely. It was a $109 gamble that I should make back easily and profit enough to buy some hardware that I wouldnt otherwise have been able to afford.

Yeah, that's a worst case scenario...(10 cents is quite high imo) my 5870 also bought me a 5830. Also, if value does not increase with bitcoin difficulty increases, then we have to assume people will start leaving bitcoin thus dropping the difficulty level & increasing production.

Quite a cleaver "sweet spot" strategy.
 

meme

Limp Gawd
Joined
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Messages
239
Your math is wrong and made up. The difficulty doesn't work like that.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty
http://bitcoin.sipa.be/speed-lin.png

My math is estimated, but doesn't appear to be wrong. I'm assuming a 100% difficulty increase every 4 weeks. This seems to be about accurate, assuming that this chart is accurate and that the 3% rate of daily growth is compounding. And your chart seems to back this as well, it was about 1 month from 2500 to 5000, and 1 more month to go from 5000 to 10,000.

2mmrew.png
 

Lorien

Supreme [H]ardness
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Messages
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My math is estimated, but doesn't appear to be wrong. I'm assuming a 100% difficulty increase every 4 weeks. This seems to be about accurate, assuming that this chart is accurate and that the 3% rate of daily growth is compounding. And your chart seems to back this as well, it was about 1 month from 2500 to 5000, and 1 more month to go from 5000 to 10,000.

You'd be wrong in assuming difficulty will increase indefinitely. Difficulty only increases if we are making more than 6 blocks per day. The more hashing power the network has the faster we get to a difficulty increase, but there will be a point when difficulty will plateau. Why?
- Because there is no infinite supply of GPUs to throw at mining
- Because the cost of energy will make it impossible to mine in certain places. In fact that already happened in Germany where energy costs are significantly higher. During the project's infancy mining in Germany was feasible, not so anymore even with the advent of GPU mining. And more importantly,
- Because when the combined hashing power of the network is not enough to mint 6 blocks per day, difficulty WILL decrease. It has happened twice, the most recent case of it in March of this year. People were throwing CPU farms at mining and caused the same rapid increase in difficulty we see today with GPUs but it plateaued. People then stopped mining with CPUs because energy costs made it impractical and difficulty decreased, the bitcoin protocol was designed that way. Shortly after that GPU mining was introduced and the increases in difficulty resumed and have in fact to this day accelerated at a greater rate than before.
 
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My math is estimated, but doesn't appear to be wrong. I'm assuming a 100% difficulty increase every 4 weeks. This seems to be about accurate, assuming that this chart is accurate and that the 3% rate of daily growth is compounding. And your chart seems to back this as well, it was about 1 month from 2500 to 5000, and 1 more month to go from 5000 to 10,000.

The difficulty was never 2500, 5000 or 10000. It doesn't work like that.
Your math is just pulled out of the air, and it is inherently wrong due to false premises.

From this data:
http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash

week year difficulty increase
52 2009 1.18
2 2010 1.3 10.17%
4 2010 1.34 3.08%
5 2010 1.81 35.07%
6 2010 2.52 39.23%
8 2010 3.78 50.00%
9 2010 4.53 19.84%
11 2010 4.56 0.66%
13 2010 6.08 33.33%
15 2010 7.81 28.45%
16 2010 11.46 46.73%
18 2010 12.84 12.04%
21 2010 16.61 29.36%
23 2010 17.38 4.64%
25 2010 19.4 11.62%
27 2010 23.5 21.13%
28 2010 45.38 93.11%
28 2010 181.54 300.04%
30 2010 244.21 34.52%
31 2010 352.16 44.20%
32 2010 511.77 45.32%
34 2010 623.38 21.81%
36 2010 712.88 14.36%
37 2010 917.83 28.75%
39 2010 1318.67 43.67%
41 2010 1378.02 4.50%
42 2010 2149.02 55.95%
43 2010 3091.73 43.87%
45 2010 4536.35 46.73%
46 2010 6866.89 51.37%
48 2010 8078.19 17.64%
49 2010 12251.99 51.67%
51 2010 14484.16 18.22%
0 2011 16307.42 12.59%
2 2011 18437.64 13.06%
4 2011 22012.38 19.39%
6 2011 25997.87 18.11%
7 2011 36459.88 40.24%
8 2011 55589.51 52.47%
10 2011 76192.61 37.06%
14 2011 82345.64 8.08%
16 2011 92347.59 12.15%
17 2011 109670.13 18.76%
19 2011 157416.4 43.54%
20 2011 244112.48 55.07%
21 2011 434877.04 78.15%
23 2011 567269.53 30.44%
24 2011 876954.49 54.59%

At one point recently the difficulty actually went down for a while.

Your math makes assumptions that simply cannot come true.
For your first week you are assuming 30,000 Radeon 5850s come online
Then in two weeks, 42,000 more
Then in two weeks, 58,800 more
and 82320 more
and 115248 more
and 161347 more
and 225886 more
and 316240 more
and finally 442736 more in the last two weeks of your example

and that's just silly. Silly meme.
 

Lorien

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
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Messages
5,197
I'm wondering when he will bring deflation into the discussion or if he even realizes it. :)
P.S: I should stop being condescending, the fact the he's looking for holes to poke is a good thing. The better people get to understand this thing the better for everyone of those involved (and not involved).
 
Joined
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Messages
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I'm wondering when he will bring deflation into the discussion or if he even realizes it. :)
P.S: I should stop being condescending, the fact the he's looking for holes to poke is a good thing. The better people get to understand this thing the better for everyone of those involved.

I'm sure he realizes a lot more than he lets on. He could just be copy/pasta from the SA forums for the lulz.
 

meme

Limp Gawd
Joined
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Messages
239
The difficulty was never 2500, 5000 or 10000. It doesn't work like that.
Your math is just pulled out of the air, and it is inherently wrong due to false premises.

From this data:
http://blockexplorer.com/q/nethash

week year difficulty increase
52 2009 1.18
2 2010 1.3 10.17%
4 2010 1.34 3.08%
5 2010 1.81 35.07%
6 2010 2.52 39.23%
8 2010 3.78 50.00%
9 2010 4.53 19.84%
11 2010 4.56 0.66%
13 2010 6.08 33.33%
15 2010 7.81 28.45%
16 2010 11.46 46.73%
18 2010 12.84 12.04%
21 2010 16.61 29.36%
23 2010 17.38 4.64%
25 2010 19.4 11.62%
27 2010 23.5 21.13%
28 2010 45.38 93.11%
28 2010 181.54 300.04%
30 2010 244.21 34.52%
31 2010 352.16 44.20%
32 2010 511.77 45.32%
34 2010 623.38 21.81%
36 2010 712.88 14.36%
37 2010 917.83 28.75%
39 2010 1318.67 43.67%
41 2010 1378.02 4.50%
42 2010 2149.02 55.95%
43 2010 3091.73 43.87%
45 2010 4536.35 46.73%
46 2010 6866.89 51.37%
48 2010 8078.19 17.64%
49 2010 12251.99 51.67%
51 2010 14484.16 18.22%
0 2011 16307.42 12.59%
2 2011 18437.64 13.06%
4 2011 22012.38 19.39%
6 2011 25997.87 18.11%
7 2011 36459.88 40.24%
8 2011 55589.51 52.47%
10 2011 76192.61 37.06%
14 2011 82345.64 8.08%
16 2011 92347.59 12.15%
17 2011 109670.13 18.76%
19 2011 157416.4 43.54%
20 2011 244112.48 55.07%
21 2011 434877.04 78.15%
23 2011 567269.53 30.44%
24 2011 876954.49 54.59%

At one point recently the difficulty actually went down for a while.

Your math makes assumptions that simply cannot come true.
For your first week you are assuming 30,000 Radeon 5850s come online
Then in two weeks, 42,000 more
Then in two weeks, 58,800 more
and 82320 more
and 115248 more
and 161347 more
and 225886 more
and 316240 more
and finally 442736 more in the last two weeks of your example

and that's just silly. Silly meme.

Your numbers show exactly what I'm saying, I'm simply assuming that the numbers will keep going up as fast as they've been going up for the past 9 months. Look at the difficulty increase from week 6 to 24, the current difficulty is 33 times what it was 18 weeks ago. I'm actually assuming it will increase more slowly than that.

Of course, it may well be preposterous that this could continue for much longer. And it's pretty much a guarantee that it can ONLY continue like this if the price continues to go up exponentially. Clearly, no one is going to dump the vast quantities of graphics cards onto the network needed to sustain this level of growth if the price isn't going up to match it.

For the difficulty level to eventually be 25 times what it is now, the price of bitcoins would also have to be 25 times what it is today, somewhere in the neighborhood of $4000 per coin.
 
Last edited:

wol-va-rine

2[H]4U
Joined
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Messages
2,122
BTCGuild found 8 blocks in an hour last last night. :D

Big payday for those that were in it. It completely threw the 24-hour stats off too. (Not that I'm complaining about it) LOL

huge FAIL for me, I was throwing my 5850 (in the kids' computer) into my rig with the 6850 to have all my mining in one system, my 5850 just would not show up in my rig, I tried everything, it even booted up fine when I threw it back in the system it had been running in, but JUST WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN MY RIG, ugh, I said fuck it and went to sleep to I could wake up fresh and work on it today, first thing this morning it booted up just fine and now they're both running in my rig, I probably missed out on at least 0.5 BTC with all the headaches as well...
 

Chihlidog

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
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Messages
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huge FAIL for me, I was throwing my 5850 (in the kids' computer) into my rig with the 6850 to have all my mining in one system, my 5850 just would not show up in my rig, I tried everything, it even booted up fine when I threw it back in the system it had been running in, but JUST WOULD NOT SHOW UP IN MY RIG, ugh, I said fuck it and went to sleep to I could wake up fresh and work on it today, first thing this morning it booted up just fine and now they're both running in my rig, I probably missed out on at least 0.5 BTC with all the headaches as well...

Multiple cards in one case is just a headache waiting to happen even when they work lol. Sucks you missed out.
 
Joined
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Messages
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Your numbers show exactly what I'm saying, I'm simply assuming that the numbers will keep going up as fast as they've been going up for the past 9 months.

No, they don't show that. The Week 18-20 and 20-22 increases are the only jumps over 40% this year.

Please look at the data.
 

wol-va-rine

2[H]4U
Joined
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Messages
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Multiple cards in one case is just a headache waiting to happen even when they work lol. Sucks you missed out.

yeah, this was my first experience with multiple cards in a system NOT in xfire, it sucked goat balls...lol, I wanted to move my Killer 2100 NIC over to the first PCIEx1 slot, but the shroud and card were blocked by a heatsink, so I made an "adjustment" to the card, when this is over and I put the shroud back on it'll cover up said "adjustment"...lol, I also had to rig up a bootleg cooling system so that my 5850 stays in the 60s, it dropped the temps 10°, I know the fans are dusty, but I didn't want to waste anymore time and just wanted it up and running...

1-1.jpg


4K1.jpg


11.jpg


9.jpg
 
Last edited:

Lorien

Supreme [H]ardness
Joined
Aug 19, 2004
Messages
5,197
Ghettoification in the name of bitcoin. Will somebody think of the hardware!
 

Lorien

Supreme [H]ardness
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Messages
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mtgox reopens for trading in 24 hours 10min.

[Update June 23 - 03:45 GMT] T-Minus 23 Hours and 15 Minutes until Launch.



Users with reclaimed accounts will be able to login to Mt.Gox on Friday June 24th at 3:00 GMT (12:00 JST). Once you are logged back into the Mt.Gox site you will be able to withdraw and deposit funds as per usual. You will not be able to trade initially, but we plan to activate trading within an hour of the site being up (4:00 GMT)

Between now and tomorrow at 3:00 GMT you should receive an email with instructions on how to access your account, provided you have successfully completed the reclaim process at claim.mtgox.com.
 

Reality

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
Feb 16, 2003
Messages
1,927
trying to grab 3 silverstone fm181's to replace my 3 stock 180mm's in my raven rv02, trying to buy via bitcoin trading...hoping 6 is enough :/
 

Chihlidog

[H]ard|Gawd
Joined
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Messages
1,166
I need to get off my ass and put my rig into a real tower case so I can take the side off and run some air. I'm using a Thermaltake Armor A30. My 5850 ran nice and cool with almost zero noise, now that Ive added the 5830 I have to run both fans above 70% to keep decent temps and it's getting awfully loud.
 
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