AMD to Skip a Radeon RX 7700 Series Launch For Now, Prioritize RX 7600 Series

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Rev. Night

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Looks like no 7700s for now. No matter how much AMD spins it, this is not good news. They don't know how to position their product against an entire Tier of performance, so they decided to just abandon or postpone it all together. What a disaster. Not to mention that there is no 7800 series either. For those only casually aware, the 7000 generation lineup is just the 7600 and 7900 series well into June, nearly 9 months after the 7900 debuted (Nov 2022).

Sometimes I feel like Jenson is calling the shots for AMD

AMD is likely to skip the launch of a Radeon RX 7700 series for now, and prioritize the RX 7600 series. Sources tell Igor's Lab that AMD's dedicated AIB partners (such as ASRock, Sapphire, PowerColor, and XFX), are expected to have custom-design boards based on Radeon RX 7600 series ready to show by Computex 2023 (June), although multi-brand board partners, such as MSI, ASUS, and GIGABYTE, are expected to take a wait-and-watch approach toward the series. AMD is likely yet to figure out the economics of an RX 7700 series product that could compete with NVIDIA's GeForce RTX 4070 series, offering competitive performance and energy-efficiency, but the introduction of the RTX 4060 series could see NVIDIA reap the sub-$500 market, where AMD possibly has a competitive silicon.
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https://www.techpowerup.com/307688/...0-series-computex-unveiling-expected#comments
 
AMD's original plan would have been for 2 Navi 32 cards:

$650 — 16gb 7800 xt ~ between 4070 & 4070 ti
$500 — 12gb 7700 xt ~ 4060 ti

Given current market situation, the 6950xt is selling for $600 & has equal or better performance to 7800xt

The 7700xt with 12gb is DoA as 6800 with 16gb vram gets discounted to as little as $450

Better option is for AMD to introduce a 6nm 16gb Navi 33 card (7600 xtx?) for $400. It is cheap to produce & margins will be high. They would be stupid not to release a 16gb Navi 33 card.
 
Almost like calling the 7900 XT anything other than the 7800 XT and charging 900 fucking dollars for it was a huge fucking mistake. I really hate these companies, reap what you sow. Get fucked AMD. I'm sure they have plenty of 6900s and 6950 XTs to get through as well so that complicates things, but it's pretty clear they totally misfired on their top end products.
 
I was just about to write how you could say the same thing about every card generation, that the new teir equals the previous gen higher teir. In which case, why release new cards at all? But then I remember that AMD hasn't had a complete gpu line up in forever. The 5000 series topped out at the 5700xt. Vega was 2 cards. 500 series was just a slight OC of 400 series
 
Is this a trick to distract from the fact there is yet to be a 7800xt ?

Still a bit of room from now to June..

Would it be because everything above is planned to be multichips and the 7600xt being monolithic was easier to chip ? Seem not.

Maybe it is more simply the 7770xt would compete with the 6900xt quite directly and make litte to no sense if you can find while price 6900xt 16GB vram card, while the 7600xt can more easily priced to fit the skus ?
 
Rev. Night said:
I was just about to write how you could say the same thing about every card generation, that the new teir equals the previous gen higher teir. In which case, why release new cards at all? But then I remember that AMD hasn't had a complete gpu line up in forever. The 5000 series topped out at the 5700xt. Vega was 2 cards. 500 series was just a slight OC of 400 series
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Achieved with smaller chips, memory bus with simpler power delivery, that make it possible to have the same performance at a better price and higher margin for them ? (and or lower price for us), a bit like a console refresh revision that will not be more powerful ?

The why release new card make sense if you still have the costed more to do older one already made that you can just sales.
 
Marees said:
AMD's original plan would have been for 2 Navi 32 cards:

$650 — 16gb 7800 xt ~ between 4070 & 4070 ti
$500 — 12gb 7700 xt ~ 4060 ti

Given current market situation, the 6950xt is selling for $600 & has equal or better performance to 7800xt

The 7700xt with 12gb is DoA as 6800 with 16gb vram gets discounted to as little as $450

Better option is for AMD to introduce a 6nm 16gb Navi 33 card (7600 xtx?) for $400. It is cheap to produce & margins will be high. They would be stupid not to release a 16gb Navi 33 card.
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But if they do release a 7600 card how will it compare to the onslaught of cheap 6650xt's and 6700's that exist in large quantities? They could release a 16GB 7600, but why? We are already seeing "leaks" of upcoming "Next-Gen" (shit optimized) game titles and they are requiring 3080ti's for 1440p mid/low graphics settings. So a 7600 anything is relegated to 1080p and AMD has too many offerings there for too cheap their own oversupply is biting them in the ass.
 
LukeTbk said:
Maybe it is more simply the 7770xt would compete with the 6900xt quite directly and make litte to no sense if you can find while price 6900xt 16GB vram card, while the 7600xt can more easily priced to fit the skus ?
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Certainly seems a likely reason. I'm sure AMD and board partners would be happy to keep selling discounted Navi21 cards for awhile if people keep buying them.
 
The problem is they launched the 7800 XT as the 7900 XT and don't have a product for that performance tier any longer. If I had to guess (which I am obviously) they have so many 6900 XT and 6950 XT cards still they can't release anything because the card they should've released at the 7800 XT tier is still sitting at 800 dollars. If they release a SKU called "7800 XT" at 650 and it doesn't outright beat the 6950 XT it'll sit on shelves for forever. They played themselves basically, they can't release a full product stack due to trying to increase their margins by a significant amount.
 
NattyKathy said:
Certainly seems a likely reason. I'm sure AMD and board partners would be happy to keep selling discounted Navi21 cards for awhile if people keep buying them.
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Right, the AIB's don't want to be left holding onto craploads of old silicon, they don't want to take orders on new stuff while they have performance-equivalent parts sitting in warehouses waiting to be placed on a board. That just leaves them with a warehouse of stuff that is even harder to sell.
 
Lakados said:
But if they do release a 7600 card how will it compare to the onslaught of cheap 6650xt's and 6700's that exist in large quantities? They could release a 16GB 7600, but why? We are already seeing "leaks" of upcoming "Next-Gen" (shit optimized) game titles and they are requiring 3080ti's for 1440p mid/low graphics settings. So a 7600 anything is relegated to 1080p and AMD has too many offerings there for too cheap their own oversupply is biting them in the ass.
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Lets assume that the 7600xt/xtx perform like 6700xt/6750xt which sell for $350-$370 right now. Assuming that range can drop further to $300(6700xt) - $330(6750xt) then AMD's strategy would be to launch 8gb 7600xt at $330 allowing it to settle towards market price of $280-$300 and launch potential 16gb 7600xtx at $400 allowing it to settle towards $350-$380

Sale of 6600/6650xt will not impact 7600 series because they are in different tiers.
The competition for the 8gb/16gb 7600 series would be the 12gb 6700xt/6750xt
 
Marees said:
Lets assume that the 7600xt/xtx perform like 6700xt/6750xt which sell for $350-$370 right now. Assuming that range can drop further to $350(6700xt) - $330(6750xt) then AMD's strategy would be to launch 8gb 7600xt at $330 allowing it to settle towards market price of $280-$30] and launch potential 16gb 7600xtx at $400 allowing it to settle towards $350-$380

Sale of 6600/6650xt will not impact 7600 series because they are in different tiers.
The competition for the 8gb/16gb 7600 series would be the 12gb 6700xt/6750xt
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If you go by the name they are not separate tiers, the Nvidia threads on the 3070 to 4070 comparisons have made that abundantly clear they are selling to the same demographic. But in either event, the 6750 is not powerful enough to meet the needs of next-gen 1440p titles so this is a 1080p class card.
AIBs are already not happy with having to discount the 6000 series parts by as much as they are and I suspect that AMD is giving them kickbacks, there is a lot of unsold 6000 series silicon out there, so if things go as you suggest AMD would be paying their AIB's to discount the 6000 series so they could then lower their margins and sell the 7600 for less. I don't think they would be in a place where the margin on the 7600 would cover that spread.
 
Decko87 said:
Almost like calling the 7900 XT anything other than the 7800 XT and charging 900 fucking dollars for it was a huge fucking mistake. I really hate these companies, reap what you sow. Get fucked AMD. I'm sure they have plenty of 6900s and 6950 XTs to get through as well so that complicates things, but it's pretty clear they totally misfired on their top end products.
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they decided to play the same game nvidia was playing with the double 4080's only i don't think they expected the backlash nvidia got for trying it but it was too late for AMD to back track from the decision when nvidia decided to unlaunch the 4080 12GB.

that being said skipping the 7700 series likely means they're trying to jump nvidia in the OEM market since OEM's will get a huge benefit from the lower power usage of the 7600's so they can cut costs by using <450w PSU's, less case fan's, etc and advertise dedicated graphics for a price premium. markets too crowded in the 350-600 dollar range right now with so many last gen cards still available and still competitive with current gen cards, doesn't make financial sense for either company to be releasing anything there imo but nvidia seems to be blind to the market and just doesn't give a crap since they're still refusing to offer incentives to lower 30 series prices like AMD has been with 6k series.
 
sirmonkey1985 said:
they decided to play the same game nvidia was playing with the double 4080's only i don't think they expected the backlash nvidia got for trying it but it was too late for AMD to back track from the decision when nvidia decided to unlaunch the 4080 12GB.

that being said skipping the 7700 series likely means they're trying to jump nvidia in the OEM market since OEM's will get a huge benefit from the lower power usage of the 7600's so they can cut costs by using <450w PSU's, less case fan's, etc and advertise dedicated graphics for a price premium. markets too crowded in the 350-600 dollar range right now with so many last gen cards still available and still competitive with current gen cards, doesn't make financial sense for either company to be releasing anything there imo but nvidia seems to be blind to the market and just doesn't give a crap since they're still refusing to offer incentives to lower 30 series prices like AMD has been with 6k series.
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Nvidia is instead giving them breaks on the 4000 series rather than paying out for the 3000, Last time Nvidia paid out for a previous gen they got sued, they aren't likely to do that again any time soon.
The only company posting good margins and sales right now is TSMC, because even with Apple, AMD, and Nvidia cutting back orders they are producing at the same rates so it's obvious they found somebody to take their spots.
 
Lakados said:
Nvidia is instead giving them breaks on the 4000 series rather than paying out for the 3000, Last time Nvidia paid out for a previous gen they got sued, they aren't likely to do that again any time soon.
The only company posting good margins and sales right now is TSMC, because even with Apple, AMD, and Nvidia cutting back orders they are producing at the same rates so it's obvious they found somebody to take their spots.
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yeah TSMC's making a killing right now, lol. really had hope that samsung would get their stuff together with 8nm and actually be able to compete with TSMC but that was a big nope.
 
sirmonkey1985 said:
yeah TSMC's making a killing right now, lol. really had hope that samsung would get their stuff together with 8nm and actually be able to compete with TSMC but that was a big nope.
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Intel is our "best" bet and that is still another 18-24 months out at best. TSMC is untouchable right now and they charge like it.
 
Lakados said:
Intel is our "best" bet and that is still another 18-24 months out at best. TSMC is untouchable right now and they charge like it.
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You have the best fabs, then you better believe you charge for it. Though I feel is TSMC was being unreasonable, then likely other companies would look at creating a fab of their own.
 
Gideon said:
You have the best fabs, then you better believe you charge for it. Though I feel is TSMC was being unreasonable, then likely other companies would look at creating a fab of their own.
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Creating a fab for a leading-edge process is easier said than done, stuff like that can't really be just spun up from scratch on short-notice.
Look at how much trouble Intel has had with their 10nm "7" and 7nm "5" processes, Samsung with 8nm, AMD spinning off GloFo back in the day when the writing was on the wall about their ability to keep up with the latest tech, UMC and SMIC perpetually being behind-the-times, Ti not even trying for the latest processes, even TSMC failing big time with 20nm in the mid-2010s and leaving NV and AMD to scramble on 28nm for longer than expected.
A new player trying to compete in leading processes would need many tens of billions of up-front investment and if they were starting today they'd need to be already targeting sub-1nm because fabs take like a decade to get running and TSMC won't be standing still during that time.
I won't speculate what TSMCs customers think their pricing agreements, but I don't think there's a reasonable alternative. (see: how going with Sammy 8nm instead of TSMC 7nm went for NV- 7nm TSMC Ampere would have been INSANE, probably would have clocked well over 2Ghz at same power levels)
 
NattyKathy said:
Creating a fab for a leading-edge process is easier said than done, stuff like that can't really be just spun up from scratch on short-notice.
Look at how much trouble Intel has had with their 10nm "7" and 7nm "5" processes, Samsung with 8nm, AMD spinning off GloFo back in the day when the writing was on the wall about their ability to keep up with the latest tech, UMC and SMIC perpetually being behind-the-times, Ti not even trying for the latest processes, even TSMC failing big time with 20nm in the mid-2010s and leaving NV and AMD to scramble on 28nm for longer than expected.
A new player trying to compete in leading processes would need many tens of billions of up-front investment and if they were starting today they'd need to be already targeting sub-1nm because fabs take like a decade to get running and TSMC won't be standing still during that time.
I won't speculate what TSMCs customers think their pricing agreements, but I don't think there's a reasonable alternative. (see: how going with Sammy 8nm instead of TSMC 7nm went for NV- 7nm TSMC Ampere would have been INSANE, probably would have clocked well over 2Ghz at same power levels)
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Not to mention the startup costs come in around $40B for a medium-sized fab.
 
I'm not shocked considering that AMD prices their products based on Nvidia. I still say AMD and Nvidia are price fixing.
7jcwmc.jpg
 
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IMHO, I'd skip. AMD has 6000 series cards to sell, Nividia's "whatever" is making people look at the existing AMD cards.

I can't see AMD releasing anything else in the current RNDA 3 path that would actually make them a lot of money. The longer they can hold and sell off old inventory, the better.
 
NattyKathy said:
Creating a fab for a leading-edge process is easier said than done, stuff like that can't really be just spun up from scratch on short-notice.
Look at how much trouble Intel has had with their 10nm "7" and 7nm "5" processes, Samsung with 8nm, AMD spinning off GloFo back in the day when the writing was on the wall about their ability to keep up with the latest tech, UMC and SMIC perpetually being behind-the-times, Ti not even trying for the latest processes, even TSMC failing big time with 20nm in the mid-2010s and leaving NV and AMD to scramble on 28nm for longer than expected.
A new player trying to compete in leading processes would need many tens of billions of up-front investment and if they were starting today they'd need to be already targeting sub-1nm because fabs take like a decade to get running and TSMC won't be standing still during that time.
I won't speculate what TSMCs customers think their pricing agreements, but I don't think there's a reasonable alternative. (see: how going with Sammy 8nm instead of TSMC 7nm went for NV- 7nm TSMC Ampere would have been INSANE, probably would have clocked well over 2Ghz at same power levels)
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I thought I heard good news about Samsung 3nm fairly recently but I could be mistaken. We'll see if either AMD or Nvidia decides to move on from TSMC for Blackwell or RDNA 4, but I doubt it.
 
They probably want to wait because if they're really hitting the "sub-$500" market they're way overpricing their cards. You can get a 6800xt for just over $500 and it'll absolutely destroy any 7600 based cards, but if the RDNA3 woes continue they may get egg on their face with a 7700 or 7800 based cards when plenty of 6000 stock exists at lower prices that is very comparable to the prices they'll probably charge.

They could have Uno reversed the market share of the GPU space if they didn't try to copy Nvidia in pricing, I imagine a 7900xt for in the $600-700 space would have been insta-buy for even the most loyal of Nvidia fan boys. And an 7800xt dropping at $500 would have been sweet. Granted I acknowledge they may be held by the short and curlies by TSMC but something tells me that would only affect their profit per card not have them sold at a loss, and who knows a cheaper 7900xt may have sold many more units than a $900 version and as a result ended up being more profitable
 
Decko87 said:
I thought I heard good news about Samsung 3nm fairly recently but I could be mistaken. We'll see if either AMD or Nvidia decides to move on from TSMC for Blackwell or RDNA 4, but I doubt it.
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Samsung claims they have their new GAA Fet 3nm process to where taking orders is financially feasible.
 
sfsuphysics said:
They probably want to wait because if they're really hitting the "sub-$500" market they're way overpricing their cards. You can get a 6800xt for just over $500 and it'll absolutely destroy any 7600 based cards, but if the RDNA3 woes continue they may get egg on their face with a 7700 or 7800 based cards when plenty of 6000 stock exists at lower prices that is very comparable to the prices they'll probably charge.

They could have Uno reversed the market share of the GPU space if they didn't try to copy Nvidia in pricing, I imagine a 7900xt for in the $600-700 space would have been insta-buy for even the most loyal of Nvidia fan boys. And an 7800xt dropping at $500 would have been sweet. Granted I acknowledge they may be held by the short and curlies by TSMC but something tells me that would only affect their profit per card not have them sold at a loss, and who knows a cheaper 7900xt may have sold many more units than a $900 version and as a result ended up being more profitable
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yeah that's why i think these cards are really intended for the oem market.

DukenukemX said:
I'm not shocked considering that AMD prices their products based on Nvidia. I still say AMD and Nvidia are price fixing.
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whats the difference if they list their cards together at 400 dollars or at 1000 dollars, people would cry price fixing. there's no reason for either company to do anything different if people are still going out and buying the cards anyways.
 
sfsuphysics said:
They probably want to wait because if they're really hitting the "sub-$500" market they're way overpricing their cards. You can get a 6800xt for just over $500 and it'll absolutely destroy any 7600 based cards, but if the RDNA3 woes continue they may get egg on their face with a 7700 or 7800 based cards when plenty of 6000 stock exists at lower prices that is very comparable to the prices they'll probably charge.

They could have Uno reversed the market share of the GPU space if they didn't try to copy Nvidia in pricing, I imagine a 7900xt for in the $600-700 space would have been insta-buy for even the most loyal of Nvidia fan boys. And an 7800xt dropping at $500 would have been sweet. Granted I acknowledge they may be held by the short and curlies by TSMC but something tells me that would only affect their profit per card not have them sold at a loss, and who knows a cheaper 7900xt may have sold many more units than a $900 version and as a result ended up being more profitable
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The more I look into costing on components the more I realize that this is less a case of AMD and Nvidia making huge profits on this hardware and it is everybody else charging more for what it takes to actually build the GPU.
I’m wondering when AMD and NVidia are going to flip the script. ATX formatted socketed GPU chips with PCIe format CPU’s.
 
sirmonkey1985 said:
whats the difference if they list their cards together at 400 dollars or at 1000 dollars, people would cry price fixing. there's no reason for either company to do anything different if people are still going out and buying the cards anyways.
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If AMD wanted market share like they should with only 10% market share, as this is an opportunity to get their cards into consumer hands to convert some Nvidia only buyers into AMD future buyers. If AMD is skipping the 7700 or delaying it, then AMD is doing this because they see what's happening to Nvidia and are backing off. It wouldn't be hard for AMD's 7700 to release at $400 or even $350 and gain massive market share, which AMD needs. Instead we're likely getting the 7600 XT at $400 and the regular 7600 at $350. AMD would have priced the 7700 at $500-$600, but with all the backlash Nvidia is getting they decided to back off.

Again my tin foil hat but I think if AMD wanted to compete then this would be the best opportunity to do so. Nvidia can't stop making mistakes with their GPU's and their consumers hate them for it. AMD could come in as their savior and price GPU's like the crypto market crashed and so is the economy. Either AMD is price fixing with Nvidia or AMD is being just as much assholes as Nvidia in term of pricing their GPU's realistically.
Lakados said:
The more I look into costing on components the more I realize that this is less a case of AMD and Nvidia making huge profits on this hardware and it is everybody else charging more for what it takes to actually build the GPU.
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Considering that TSMC is panicking with all the cancelled orders, I really doubt it's the cost of GPU manufacturing. Now that AMD has finally gone chiplet with their GPU's, it should further reduce cost, which AMD doesn't seem to want to transition over to consumers. Intel has proven that they are willing to compete on price even with GPU's having 16GB of VRAM, which both AMD and Nvidia seem to be less willing to put that much VRAM on anything but their $1k+ graphic cards. So no, it isn't because components cost more. Shareholders demand more and that's what's driving up prices.
 
DukenukemX said:
It wouldn't be hard for AMD's 7700 to release at $400 or even $350
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$12 gig of GDDR6 ram, $110 for a 300mm monolitic die would you start at 200+ before the motherboard, the cooling and power supply, reseller margin, AIB margin.

Maybe, but is that based on some realistic BOM cost model, needed margin through the chain and high enough margin to justify using large amount of tsmc on it, Zen 4 ccd are 70mm and a 7800x3d sales for over $400, no motherboard, no ram, no AIBS, no cooler I think, a small GPU and some IO dies, but still I imagine massively better than a 7700 class gpu going for less.
 
Rev. Night said:
I was just about to write how you could say the same thing about every card generation, that the new teir equals the previous gen higher teir. In which case, why release new cards at all? But then I remember that AMD hasn't had a complete gpu line up in forever. The 5000 series topped out at the 5700xt. Vega was 2 cards. 500 series was just a slight OC of 400 series
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The 6000 series lineup was very complete. No?
 
LukeTbk said:
$12 gig of GDDR6 ram, $110 for a 300mm monolitic die would you start at 200+ before the motherboard, the cooling and power supply, reseller margin, AIB margin.

Maybe, but is that based on some realistic BOM cost model, needed margin through the chain and high enough margin to justify using large amount of tsmc on it, Zen 4 ccd are 70mm and a 7800x3d sales for over $400, no motherboard, no ram, no AIBS, no cooler I think, a small GPU and some IO dies, but still I imagine massively better than a 7700 class gpu going for less.
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Where do you get your numbers? Genuinely curious, also makes me think wafer prices are insane.
 
Rev. Night said:
Sometimes I feel like Jenson is calling the shots for AMD
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He is. But not in the way that the mob wants to believe it.

Nvidia is just dictating the market for some time now and AMD (being a company looking for profits and not being anybody's friend) is very happy to play along and follow the upwards pricing.
From a business perspective it's understandable.
And no, i don't condone any of it.
 
DukenukemX said:
Considering that TSMC is panicking with all the cancelled orders, I really doubt it's the cost of GPU manufacturing. Now that AMD has finally gone chiplet with their GPU's, it should further reduce cost, which AMD doesn't seem to want to transition over to consumers. Intel has proven that they are willing to compete on price even with GPU's having 16GB of VRAM, which both AMD and Nvidia seem to be less willing to put that much VRAM on anything but their $1k+ graphic cards. So no, it isn't because components cost more. Shareholders demand more and that's what's driving up prices.
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Not panicking, they are still running at capacity, AMD, Nvidia, and Apple may have cut back or canceled, but others all jumped in at the chance to get their stuff printed. TSMC still has waitlists, and they also announced another round of price increases as a result, 6% in July, which makes it their 8'th price adjustment in 4 years, not including when they have just raised rates on individual nodes because of whatever reason they decided. Their shareholders love those margins too, MSI, Asus, and Gigabyte, all raised theirs because yay capitalism and so have most of the Chinese companies making the regulators, Japanese companies are charging more for capacitors and MOSFETs than ever. They all decided they wanted a larger margin.
Intel is being disruptive because they can afford to they absolutely need to get as many cards out as possible and their only ground to compete on is price, they don't have the tools, features, branding, or performance, and absolutely no past track records, they are for all purposes the unknown newcomer. I am happy to see them do it, they also basically got their investors' permission to run their GPU division at a loss for a while because they have made it clear there is too much money involved to back away and it will take them a while to be feature, and performance competitive.
 
MLID asserts that AMD should be able to produce affordable RDNA 3 GPUs

https://twitter.com/mooreslawisdead/status/1650788702149308419?s=20

We talk about it on the Broken Silicon dropping today...that includes a couple big leaks :) Look honestly...I am just gonna say it shamelessly...to Turn Heads AMD needs the 7600 XT to be $299 or maybe even $279 for the 8GB model, and they need to offer a 16GB option for <$379.
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Rev. Night said:
I was just about to write how you could say the same thing about every card generation, that the new teir equals the previous gen higher teir. In which case, why release new cards at all? But then I remember that AMD hasn't had a complete gpu line up in forever. The 5000 series topped out at the 5700xt. Vega was 2 cards. 500 series was just a slight OC of 400 series
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Huh? Didn't the 6000 series have a pretty full line up?
 
Marees said:
There was one before where AMD used 2 generations to complete a line-up

From HD 7990 down to HD 7350
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that was pretty standard during the GCN era and with AMD in general and it's a smart business move.. everything from the x650 and up would be current gen, everything below was previous gen silicon. it was a cheap and easy way to get rid of failed silicon. then toward the end of the generation you'd have outlier test gpu's using the next gen process with current gen tech like the 4770 and i think the 5770 or 5830(can't remember for sure) and a few others in older generations.
 
Decko87 said:
Where do you get your numbers? Genuinely curious, also makes me think wafer prices are insane.
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I start with:
https://anysilicon.com/die-per-wafer-formula-free-calculators/

Use a rough success level of a new chips success (80%) to estimate how many GPU per wafer they get, then I google and try to find rough estimate of TSMC wafer cost.
Google GDRR6 chips rate and apply a rebate to big buyers.

A bit the same exercise as here:
https://www.hardwaretimes.com/amd-r...n-nvidias-rtx-4080-up-to-500-per-card-report/

It could down quite a bit down the line as the power, bus width making the pcb much simpler
 
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