AMD Surprised Analysts with Powerful Product Launches at CES 2019

cageymaru

cageymaru

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Patrick Moorhead has written a comprehensive overview of the upcoming AMD product lineup that was on display at CES 2019. He was surprised that AMD could create such a powerful GPU as the Radeon VII with 7 nm technology. The 29% uplift in gaming performance and 36% boost to productivity applications over a Vega 64 is quite compelling, but of course that is going by AMD supplied numbers. Reviews will ultimately tell the truth. The new 7 nm desktop CPU previewed at the trade show proves AMD is ready to compete directly with Intel as it equaled the Intel part while using 30% less power. Intel should be worried as it was clear that a second 8 core chip could be integrated into the package. The AMD notebook lineup sounds incredible on paper as 12 hours of battery life on an ultrathin laptop featuring AMD graphics is something that Mr. Moorhead is looking forward to. The AMD EPYC "Rome" live demonstration showed why Intel should be concerned about maintaining its data-center dominance as the AMD offering was clearly 15% faster than 2 of the Intel Xeon Platinum 8180 chips combined.

It was a triumphant return to the big stage in Las Vegas for AMD. The company's Radeon VII announcement was totally stealthy -- a masterful stroke that shows that things are about to get really interesting competitively- if AMD can deliver in volume. The 3rd Gen Ryzen desktop processor appears sets a new standard for performance and efficiency, and the 2nd Gen Ryzen mobile processor, if the battery measurements are true in the real world, could be a real gamechanger for notebooks. Rome is a harbinger of good things to come for EPYC and AMD's datacenter efforts. Nice work, AMD.
 
Nice perspective on AMD's continuing return to form which should indeed be of concern to the competition, also good news for those building a system this year.
 
I have been toying with the idea of buying a Radeon 7. However, that means I would then want to turn around and sell my Vega 56 Reference for $300 shipped. Well, I have to see if I can even score one first.
 
I don't think he should have been surprised. Anyone following the industry should have known that the shrink to 7nm would bring good performance improvements to both their GPU's and CPU's.

Only thing I was worried about was that AMD would be AMD and somehow find a way to screw it up.

That said, 7nm Vega did perform a little better than I expected. It wasn't a "surprise" per se.
 
I have cash in hand for the 3xxx ryzen 7's. Hope its not going to be a shortage or delay, not sure how much longer i can hold out with only a 2200g...
 
JosiahBradley said:
Why is the stock dropping then? I'm buying all I can but it keeps going down.
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Its 52 week low is 9 bucks. It made a massive 31 cents a share. Its PE is a massive 65. It has a massive amount of debt. Even if it had a MASSIVE PE of 30 (double the tech standard) is would only be worth about treefiddy.
 
Lisa Su has been masterful at turning this company around. Getting them detached from GloFo was critical. If she is in AMD for the long term (i.e. rest of her career) I think we will see them become and remain a major force in the computing world.
 
JosiahBradley said:
Why is the stock dropping then? I'm buying all I can but it keeps going down.
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Here's my take on it....

They aren't making much money yet. The gpu sales suck, the earnings in a couple weeks will be weak or modest at best (and probably still have some crypto overstock hangover), and I doubt they have double digit percentages of server market share yet etc. So the stock price is high built on hopes of AMD taking 30% of the server market. And they might - but it hasn't happened yet. The new products aren't out yet and might not be for months so they aren't taking much market share next quarter either (unless they are already volume shipping 7nm cpu's to server vendors already). Radeon VII was unexpected and sounds ok, but I think it's optimistic to think it'll sell well enough to affect the bottom line much. Radeon Instincts are in a similar situation. I think AMD will grow market-share wise in the desktop and server and chromebook markets, but we may be months away before we see that growth. The stock price has jumped from $9-$20 already because people see this. It might go way up still like it did a few months ago on high expectations, but if intel's 10nm is actually on track and products start shipping that may seriously slow down AMD's market growth. Many people were expecting a Navi announcement at CES that didn't happen - which means they won't be doing much to compete with nvidia until later this year or early next year. But AMD stock already hit $34 a few months ago when they had way less to show than they do now so it might go way up again soon. Nvidias stock went crazy for a couple years in a row.

It's hard buying stocks that are full of speculation and investor excitement because the value is hard to pin down.
 
JosiahBradley said:
Why is the stock dropping then? I'm buying all I can but it keeps going down.
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I'm in with you - I've been buying when it drops a little. I think the stock will do well over the next year or so. That said, I would not take stock advice from me. Do your homework.
 
Jumped a k in at 17 after selling at 26. AMD is a traders stock and moves on emotions. Number guys will always miss out on opportunity. When nobody wants it, buy it. When everyone wants it, sell. This thing moves. You've been warned. I bought in at 10-14, it sunk to 9 but I held on for big gains.
 
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Yeh I was gonna buy 1000 when it was 2 bucks a share....but I needed damn dental work done......story of my life lol.
 
^ Same as. I was going to buy at 1.70 but just didn't have the cash and didn't have any trader/brokerage account setup so got lazy
 
I agree. How can someone that covers this industry be that surprised? He comes off sounding like a shill. Probably owns lots of AMD stock himself.

Zarathustra[H] said:
I don't think he should have been surprised. Anyone following the industry should have known that the shrink to 7nm would bring good performance improvements to both their GPU's and CPU's.

Only thing I was worried about was that AMD would be AMD and somehow find a way to screw it up.

That said, 7nm Vega did perform a little better than I expected. It wasn't a "surprise" per se.
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cageymaru said:
Patrick Moorhead has written a comprehensive overview of the upcoming AMD product lineup that was on display at CES 2019. He was surprised that AMD could create such a powerful GPU as the Radeon VII with 7 nm technology. The 29% uplift in gaming performance and 36% boost to productivity applications over a Vega 64 is quite compelling, but of course that is going by AMD supplied numbers...
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How is that surprising? I would've been more surprised/upset if AMD was unable to hit this type of GPU performance when moving to 7nm with a high-end GPU since the 1080 Ti has similar performance at 16nm. I'm more interested in seeing what AMD will be able to do at 7nm with Navi.

The 3rd generation Ryzen looks very interesting/promising so far. I'm very excited to see what that brings to the table and hopefully keeps Intel scrambling to get back on their feet.
 
I posted on another site, 2019 would be AMDs year, Ryzen and Navi, Navi specifically if they were using the 7nm double/triple patterning lithography as EUV/UVL, TSMC stated wouldn't be up and running until 2020. I just hope they continue and reinvest wisely to battle competitors later.

2020 would be a strike back year for NVidia on 7nm EUV/UVL as their new arch could use the die shrinking and benefit excessively well from it. Intel also entering the market would further shake things up.

Intel on CPU side though who knows, they have been for so long on top that I really don't think they can deal with an AMD with their shit together doing as well as they are, once AMD solves their IPC issues Intel might be fore-gone unless they can pull some next generation stuff out for better prices than they are used to selling them for as it's the only real lead they have. Optane could be an important key but it's absolutely no where at the point it can replace RAM and OS drive at the same time.

People argued of course.....as always.
 
1Nocturnal101 said:
I posted on another site, 2019 would be AMDs year, Ryzen and Navi, Navi specifically if they were using the 7nm double/triple patterning lithography as EUV/UVL, TSMC stated wouldn't be up and running until 2020.
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Navi 20 in 2020 is supposed to be EUV. Optane is way OT.
 
Mega6 said:
Navi 20 in 2020 is supposed to be EUV. Optane is way OT.
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They are saying Navi may come earlier and not in 2020, but late this year aka fall 2019 with an announcement at Computex , so those probably arnt EUV/UVL lithography, and if that is the case as I said before Navi better actually be a good arch otherwise it's going to get trounced like Vega did. It's all gonna ride on what lithography and how good it is, because NVidia will fire back with a 3000 series and if they feel even remotely threatened on their dominance on the top end you can guarantee Turing will be better at nearly half the node size and made cheaper with alot less rejected dies and better top end performance of the entire wafer, either way I wouldn't hype Navi up until we actually see it and have journalistic benchmarks.

AMD can't afford to match performance they need to beat it at the same TDP in the same node process otherwise it's going to be the same old same old.
 
1Nocturnal101 said:
They are saying Navi may come earlier and not in 2020, but late this year aka fall 2019 with an announcement at Computex ,
AMD can't afford to match performance they need to beat it at the same TDP in the same node process otherwise it's going to be the same old same old.
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I stated navi 20 in 2020. NOT all encompassing navi everything. late 2019 -2020 i think u r splitting hairs or confued.
 
Zarathustra[H] said:
Only thing I was worried about was that AMD would be AMD and somehow find a way to screw it up.
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As much as I like competition and will run AMD in a heartbeat, the chances of AMD not pulling an AMD are always slim.

What confuses me here is the use of the 'strong' qualifier: AMD is targeting- at max- GPU and CPU technology levels that their main competitors hit three and four years ago- just this year. Meanwhile said competitors continue to improve, which means that AMD has once again moved up from 'not good enough' to 'good enough and cheap'.
 
Mega6 said:
I stated navi 20 in 2020. NOT all encompassing navi everything. late 2019 -2020 i think u r splitting hairs or confued.
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Ah my bad big Navi, still Navi 10 or little Navi.....I will still say it though the arch needs to be impressive, Even if they release Navi 20 with the new lithography it will mean nothing if they can't beat NVidia on the same node.
 
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